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Newsweek Poll: Obama “Losing Ground” Fast To Clinton

April 26th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief


Add to the increasingly long list of bad news for Senator Barack Obama in his battle for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination the latest Newsweek poll which shows him losing ground shockingly fast to Senator Hillary Clinton:

After an important primary win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has reduced Democratic rival Barack Obama’s double-digit lead among registered Democrats and voters leaning Democratic by more than half, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Plagued by controversies over Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s comments and the candidate’s own “bitter” remarks, Obama has seen his favorability rating slip significantly in the last week, the poll found.

The survey found that Clinton now trails Obama by seven points, down from 19 just one week ago. The previous NEWSWEEK poll, conducted on the eve of the Pennsylvania primary, found that more than half (55 percent) of registered voters believed Obama was more electable, while 33 percent gave the edge to Clinton. The current poll finds Obama leading 46 percent to 38 percent.

The question becomes whether Clinton now has “Big Mo” or whether it’s a matter of Obama quickly losing it. But the Obama camp has received some bad news recently. Two key tidbits: his shrinking lead in the Gallup Daily tracking poll, coupled with signs that the news media narrative is now changing from “Hillary Clinton doesn’t have a chance” to “Hillary Clinton might actually be able to be nominated.”

Once again, polls fluctuate and trending is what matters…but the trending for Obama hasn’t been good this week and this poll contains little good news for his campaign:

One of the more problematic results for Obama was that four in 10 of registered voters (including Republicans and independents) now have an unfavorable opinion of him–and the same number said there is “no chance” they will vote for Obama if he becomes the nominee. Four in 10 registered voters (41 percent) say they have a less favorable opinion of Obama based on his association with his former pastor, Rev. Wright, whose racially and politically inflammatory sermons have been circulated on the Internet and covered in the media. A similar number (42 percent) say they will not vote for Obama because of comments he made about “bitter” small-town residents clinging to guns and religion.

There is, however, one ray of sunshine for the Illinois Senator:

Even so, the NEWSWEEK poll indicates that despite the political damage inflicted over recent weeks, Obama still edges out McCain in a trial head-to-head heat for the White House, 47 to 44 percent. That margin was only one point wider a week ago. Clinton—whose own favorability rating has not improved even as Obama’s has slipped—also holds a three point lead with 48 percent of the vote to the Arizona senator’s 45. Among all registered voters, more than half (53 percent) still hold a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to the 47 percent who view Clinton favorably and 51 percent who have favorable views of McCain.

But it’s clear the Obama camp is, at the last, on the defensive right now and, at the most, in a holding pattern. Note these developments:

1. Hillary Clinton is trying to press Obama to a Lincoln-Douglas style debate with no moderators. Since Obama has seldom gained from debates, it’s hard to imagine him agreeing no matter how much she tries to pressure him. And he is refusing. When candidates try to make another candidate not debating the issue, it usually fizzles unless the other candidate feels there is something to be genuinely gained. Her husband Bill Clinton is also demanding Obama debate.

2. Bill Clinton is now unleashed. The Clinton campaign feels he’s a plus. And BC has been pressing for the campaign to go more negative and faster.

3. Obama has agreed to go on Fox News – a sign that he is pulling out all stops now to steady his campaign. The question: if he thought the ABC News moderators were tough on him, is he fully prepared for what will face him on Fox News? The upside for Obama: he handles himself well and gets some headlines — and produces some good sound bites — it’ll get lots of air time and communicate that his campaign is not just on the defensive.

Polls should continue to fluctuate, but right now Obama has hit a rocky patch. What to watch for this week: can he stabilize his tumble or reverse it?



This entry was posted on Saturday, April 26th, 2008 at 8:19 pm and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Fox News, Approval Ratings, Primaries, Negative Campaigning, Indiana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Debates, Democratic Party, Democrats, Polls, 2008 Elections, Republicans, Hillary Clinton, Elections, John McCain, Barack Obama, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 3 Comments

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    • v
    I believe it's the media that is driving this. They began right after Texas and never stopped. Only they hyped it hard in the last month. Everyday they are doing endless rounds of how Obama may be unelectable and is weak or effete. All the push button things to scare democrats. Even those who are strongly for Obama, the media is trying to drive hesitancy and doubts.
    Why they are doing so is a mystery.
    I think it's more than just trying to drag this race on and affect the outcome of the May 6th race.
    Something very incidious is at work behind the scene and they are being good lapdogs in this.
    newsweek has a major story on how he has major problems with the blue collar.
    this is another in a series of created bad stories as Obama got 38 percent in Pennsylvania. He got 24 in SC way back when and has averaged over 40 percent.
    They are trying to make him unelectable in the supers and voters eyes.
    I wish I knew what was going on. Why they are doing this.
    Have the Clintons gotten in their heads and their corporate masters or what.
    • ^
    • v
    vwcat - I don't think there's any agenda to be found in the media's attention. The election story right now is that the primary is still going on, and that begs the question of "why?" The negative stories about Obama often seem to be a result of the media trying to answer that question.

    Similarly, the Obama campaign seems to be in a holding pattern right now - I think they feel that they have the nomination locked up provided there aren't any major events (which I agree with) so they seem to be biding their time until they no longer have to deal with Clinton. A result of this approach is that there isn't anything new to focus on, so the media is left focusing on the most recent story, which right now is analyzing the Pennsylvania results to death.

    This is an extraordinarily long election cycle - the convention is still three months off and the election is more than six months away - so it may make some sense for the Obama campaign to be patient for now and simply ensure that the remaining primaries play out as expected and he gets the nomination, after which they can begin making their appeal to unify the party and bring in the independent voters needed to win in November.
    • ^
    • v
    Context, please. The race is far closer to even than it seems to the kiddies, but make no mistake who is the leader and has been since Super Tuesday.

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_DConv0...

    and

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

    http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08...

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