(Updated) Damning Clinton With Faint Praise As The Bloodletting Finally Nears An End

April 23rd, 2008
By SHAUN MULLEN, TMV Columnist

Print Print

01aaclinton_winpa.jpg

In this strangest of campaign seasons, Pennsylvania has stood out for how much and how little has changed in the most ferociously fought and one of the most expensive primary campaigns ever. And when the fat lady finally sang, it turned out to be pretty much meaningless except in one important respect.

Hillary Clinton’s 9.38 percentage point win over Barack Obama is impressive any way you cut it except where it matters most: It merely forestalls the inevitability of Obama’s nomination. As for that one important respect: Exit polls again showed that there are racial, economic and values divisions within the Democratic Party that may be major vulnerabilities for Obama when he takes on presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the fall campaign.

The candidates had six weeks to get their messages out to Keystone State Democrats, which was an eternity considering that there had been 44 primaries and caucuses in the 15 weeks before yesterday’s vote, and they turned out in record numbers with over 2.3 million ballots cast.

At the outset of this six-week slugfest, Clinton was favored by about 20 percentage points in most polls. The conventional wisdom had it that Pennsylvania was tailor-made for her with large blue-collar, union, elderly and Catholic populations, besides which she had won other big states like California, Texas and Ohio, albeit by less than impressive margins. Pennsylvania was, but her lead had shrunk to about 5 percentage points in most polls, Obama actually led in one and I had predicted that he would prevail.

What happened?

As has been proven time and again this year, negative campaigning with its many tentacles – including TV advertising, debate rejoinders, push polling, sending out surrogates to sling mud, and so on – just did not appeal to Pennsylvania voters. The Clinton campaign’s determined effort to take the low road and risk blurring its message on the real issues with repeated attacks on Obama did not work and diminished her credibility even though that six-week period included Obama dust-ups such as Wright-gate, Bowling-gate, Bitter-gate, Ayers-gate, Waffle-gate and Debate-gate, the latter the ABC News production choreographed by the Marquis de Sade in which the Illinois senator was repeatedly put on the defensive and was ineffectual at striking back.

All of these kerfuffles were variously described as near-death experiences by Clinton’s supporters and chortling right-of-center commentators. But while they may have played in the decision of a majority of undecided Pennsylvania voters to go with Clinton — as much as 11 percent of the primary electorate made up their minds at the last minute with 6 out of 10 going with Clinton, according to some polls — Obama’s lead over her has grown nationally.

Clinton’s ability to burnish her reputation as a dirty player has been the singular success of a campaign that was supposed to be a dress rehearsal for her coronation as the nominee and then president.

She has all but forced Obama to alter his game plan and also take off the gloves. He too went on the attack in the waning days of the Pennsylvania campaign and while issues-oriented voters will be the worse for it, expect that to continue until Clinton finally concedes.

Her favorable-unfavorable ratings in the Washington Post-ABC News poll after the early primary in New Hampshire were a respectable 59-39, but there had been a dramatic 40-point swing by the eve of the Pennsylvania vote and her ratings are now a dismal 39-58, which puts her within hailing distance of George Bush’s historically high disapproval numbers. In this respect Clinton is indeed presidential.

She could not have done that by her self, of course.

When historians pick through the wreckage of the Clinton campaign, many will note that the turning point – the moment when the wheels started to come off the Trash Talk Express — was in the run-up to the South Carolina primary on January 19. That was when Bill Clinton and other race-baiting surrogates unleashed a backlash that reverberated beyond that state, offering a stark contrast between the campaigns of a Washington insider and a fresh-faced outsider.

I wondered for weeks why the Missus had been unable to make adjustments after that debacle, including muzzling the Mister.

But after watching Hillary Clinton in action in Pennsylvania, the answer is obvious. She has proven that she’s not merely scrappy, she’s just not a particularly nice person. It has finally dawned of me that she had no intention of cleaning up her act after South Carolina, and Bill Clinton merrily continued to throw logs on the race fire even after the polls had opened.

There are a couple of reasons why there have been no adjustments:

*
Bill has played loose and fast with the facts so that Hillary doesn’t have to, or at least not as much. True to form, she dodged questions yesterday about her view of her husband’s continued race baiting as if they were of no relevance. Incredible.

* While Obama is flush with cash and spent the lion’s share of the estimated $20 million expended in Pennsylvania, Clinton is broke and can barely afford TV advertising. But when she and the man with whom she was co-president attack Obama, the news media advertises for her for free.

The upshot was that likely voters said in poll after poll that they had a much better idea of what Obama stood for and, most importantly, what he would do if elected to stanch the hemorrhaging of Pennsylvania jobs (200,000 since 2000) and beefing up job-training programs.

So why was Pennsylvania pretty much meaningless? Because Clinton has run out of road, as well as money.

Clinton technically did not get a double-digit win, although she came close at 9.38 percent. She closed the gap only slightly in the aggregate national popular vote (a 193,000 vote pickup) and gained only 13 delegates (getting 82 delegates to Obama’s 69).

Then there are the remaining primaries, with Indiana and North Carolina looming large two weeks hence.

Clinton would have to win both by substantial margins to begin to close the delegate and popular vote gap, but she trails badly in North Carolina and may well lose in Indiana, too.

That presumably — and mercifully — would bring and end to a bloody campaign in which Clinton repeatedly sought the low ground and has all but forced Obama to do the same.

Then there is the long term: Obama lost two suburban Philadelphia counties that he probably should have won. He lost both white men and women, union members and non-college educated. He lost elderly voters and, yes, those “bitter” small-town residents.

All will be huge vulnerabilities against McCain because Pennsylvania will be very much a battleground state in November. But even with Clinton’s win that showdown — and hopefully a break from the smear tactics and polarization that she has made the centerpiece of her campaign — is drawing ever nearer.

Contributing to this report were American Debate, The Associated Press, CNN, Donklephant, The Guardian, The Los Angeles Times, The New York Times and The Washington Post.

Photograph by Carolyn Cole/The Los Angeles Times




This entry was posted on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 at 4:37 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Primaries, Negative Campaigning, Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Barack Obama, John McCain, Bill Clinton, 2008 Elections. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 5 Comments

 
close Reblog this comment
blog comments powered by Disqus



By posting comments on The Moderate Voice you are acknowledging and agreeing to the following general comments policy:

(1) The Moderate Voice's comments are hosted by Disqus (http://disqus.com). If your comment doesn't appear immediately, please be patient since it is an off-site system.

(2) All e-mail received from readers by The Moderate Voice is considered intended for publication unless otherwise indicated in the initial message from the writer. Please do not send us attachments unless you contact us and we agree to it.

(3)The Moderate Voice reserves the right to edit all e-mail and posted comments for content, clarity, and length.

(4) Our comment space is reserved for comments that relate to a post's topic. You should not reprint lengthy text from your own works or those of others, including news articles. You MAY link to them.

(5) Comments that are abusive, offensive, contain profane or racist material or violate the terms of service for this blog's host provider will be removed and the author(s) banned from future comments. Such comments also violate the very SPIRIT of this site -- which was created to encourage thoughtful and vigorous discussion among readers who may share differing viewpoints.

(6) All points of view are welcome on The Moderate Voice, with the following exceptions:

(a) Comments posted several times a day with the intent of dominating, re-directing or hijacking the thread by turning a discussion into the equivalent of a bitter shouting match.

(b) Comments posted several times a day that insult or call other commenters or blog writers names or repeatedly make the same point with the effect of or clear intent to annoy other commenters or blog writers.

(7) Name-calling, personal attacks, racist comments or use of profanity by any commenter, whether they are by persons who agree or disagree with the views expressed by The Moderate Voice will NOT be tolerated and will result in the deletion of the comment and the banning of the commenter's ISP address, without notice. In some cases a comment may be deleted and the writer will be given another chance. Commenters who virtually ASK The Moderate Voice to ban them by ignoring any warnings or daring TMV to ban them will quickly get their wish.

(8) Anonymous commenters should identify themselves with the same moniker, so readers know their comments are coming from a single individual. If they don't, they are subject to a banning.

(9)If we have problems with inappropriate or inflammatory comments from a commenter who it turns out gave a fake email address that person is subject to immediate banning.

(10) Quotes from material appearing on The Moderate Voice with attribution are allowed. Reprints are allowed only by permission from The Moderate Voice. You may request permission by e-mail.

(11) The Moderate Voice is a personal site. It is not the Government. It is NOT aligned with any political party. It is NOT promoting any specific candidate for office. It is not a public institution or a media organization. It is not a neutral site. It is intended to express and disseminate the authors' varying points of views. Writers on this weblog WILL take positions. It reserves the right to limit comments to those that, in its view, comport with its stated comment policy. Comments that do not comply are subject to deletion and banning of the author's ISP.

Disclaimer:

--Reading and posting comments at The Moderate Voice constitutes acknowledgment of and agreement to the terms outlined in this comment policy. This comment policy may be revised in part or in full at any time.

--All comments must comport with applicable state and federal laws. The Moderate Voice has no obigation to monitor, edit, censor, or take responsibility for comments. It may or may not act upon a violation of its comment policy once a suspected violation has been brought to its attention. Therefore, commenters are solely responsible for the content of their comments and should ensure that that their comments are lawful and fall within the stated guidelines of both The Moderate Voice and its hosting company.

--The Moderate Voice is not be responsible for injury or liability to any reader or commenter resulting from its own communications or those of commenters, that may be offensive, misleading, inaccurate, illegal, or otherwise unsuitable in the view of the reader. Readers and commenters further agree to indemnify and hold harmless The Moderate Voice from claims resulting from the use of any material appearing on The Moderate Voice which damages the reader, commenter or any other party.

--The Moderate Voice is not responsible for and might disagree with material posted in the comments section. While we strive for accuracy in our posts and DO correct errors, material posted by The Moderate Voice in its posts -- or those left by others in the comments section -- may or may not be accurate.

Read and Post at your own risk.