An Election that Solved Nothing - A 9 Point Margin
April 22nd, 2008 by ELROD
The very final results are trickling in and it looks like the true margin of victory for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania will be about 9 points. With 99% reporting, she has 54.7% of the vote and Obama has 45.3%, or a difference of 9.4%. Considering the only precincts remaining are in Philadelphia, Chester County and Delaware County, it’s likely that the 9.4 number will nudge closer to a clean 9 percent.
Hillary Clinton will not technically get her double-digit win. But Obama will not have done a whole lot better than Ohio either (which he lost by 10). Yes, Pennsylvania is older, whiter and less educated than Ohio. It also has a lot more Appalachia within it than does Ohio. So I suppose Obama gained something by treading water in the final result.
But all of this just goes to show how little has changed in this race after tens of millions of dollars spent on a primary with six weeks of campaigning leading up to it. Obama closed the gap from about 20 points, but he’s done that many times before. Clinton managed to win by more than a tiny handful, but not the large margin she needed to make up pledged delegates and popular votes. What’s more, all of this will be negated by North Carolina in two weeks.
So where does the Democratic nomination go from here? Does the ongoing battle help the party by rallying supporters and organizing voters? Or does it hurt the party’s chances in November by giving ammunition to McCain and by making each side’s supporters more insistent that they will ONLY support their own candidate in November?
It’s close to impossible for Hillary Clinton to win this nomination for reasons many others have laid out. She cannot overtake him in pledged delegates. She will almost definitely not overtake him in popular votes - even if Florida is included. She has not been gaining superdelegates since Super Tuesday even as he’s racked up about 75 new ones. Her only path to the nomination seems to be to raise enough electability doubts about Obama that superdelegates will balk at supporting him. But that may end up handing the election to John McCain.
So what should she do? She’s earned the right to continue; her 9-point win grants her that. Obama has major work ahead to consolidate blue collar women and Latinos for the general election; Appalachian voters and blue collar men don’t vote Democratic anymore and will go to McCain no matter what.
Will Obama have a better chance of consolidating his support from Hillary’s base if she goes to the end and gets beaten after ALL the votes are counted? Or can she better serve the party by bowing out after, say, a loss in North Carolina where she can work to convince her supporters to back Obama and the Democratic ticket? I have no idea. I’m just annoyed that the race is continuing on in the same fashion as before: no momentum, no game changers, no resolution.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 pm and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, As Yet Unassigned. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
