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Zogby Post-Debate Poll: Clinton Opens Up Small Lead In Pennsylvania

April 18th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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The latest Newsmax/Zogby poll taken after Wednesday night’s debate that contained one of the weakest performances by Democratic Senator Barack Obama shows rival Hillary Clinton now opening up a small lead only days away from the Democratic Presidential primary.

In recent weeks, as this chart shows, have shown Clinton keeping her lead in Pennsylvania but by narrow margins. For months she had enjoyed a double-digit lead there and Pennsylvania was expected to be a huge victory for her, but Obama had started to narrow the gap. Between Clinton’s use of his “bitter” comments and his debate performance there has been much speculation that his momentum stopped.

In this latest poll:

New York Democrat Hillary Clinton had a good day in the Newsmax/Zogby daily tracking poll ahead of Tuesday’s Pennsylvania primary, following a strong debate performance in Philadelphia Wednesday night, and now holds a 47% to 43% advantage over Barack Obama of Illinois.

The two-day tracking survey, which was conducted April 16-17, 2008, showed that 10% were either undecided or supported someone else.

The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 602 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

The race appears stable, as Clinton retained a sizable lead in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama continues to lead by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.

Pollster Zogby notes a long-term polling trend that should be troubling to the Obama camp:

No ground really gained or lost by either candidate after Wednesday’s debate. The one day sample had Clinton leading by 4 points. She is solid with Catholics, whites, Hispanics, and older voters. Obama holds his strong support among African Americans, the young , and Very Liberals.

What is very significant here is that when we ask these likely primary voters who they would vote for today in the general election, Clinton scores 75% to 9% against McCain, while Obama leads McCain 72% to 14%. The difference? Only 11% of Catholic Democrats and 12% of white Democrats choose McCain in the match against Clinton, while 22% of Catholic Democrats and 18% of white Democrats choose McCain against Obama.

And there are some shifts in the polling see-saw — a key one being that Obama increasingly leads among the “very liberal” while Clinton now leads among the moderates:

There was a shift in the genders. Among men, Clinton made up seven points in the last 24 hours against Obama, who still holds a 49% to 41% edge. But Obama also made up a little ground among women, where Clinton now leads by 13 points, down from 15% in yesterday’s tracking poll.

Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads by 19 points, and moved ahead of Clinton among mainline liberals, who narrowly favored Clinton in yesterday’s release. Among moderates, Clinton has pulled ahead, and also leads among conservative Democrats.

A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 50% to 42% edge – much like his edge in yesterday’s survey results. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set.

A key question is the undecideds. Some analysts (including MSNBC’s Chris Matthews) believe the undecideds will breaking largely to Clinton — and that for all of the polls showing Obama gaining ground in the end this race will wind up like Ohio, with a larger margin to Clinton than polls indicated.

Several Clinton supporters in print, in public and on cable now say that if she wins by just one vote it is a huge victory. The problem: she was ahead by double digits until recently and just winning by a small margin will not impress Superdelegates with her argument that Obama is unelectable.



This entry was posted on Friday, April 18th, 2008 at 5:22 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Independents, Approval Ratings, Democratic Party, Primaries, Negative Campaigning, Pennsylvania, Superdelegates, Brokered Convention, Conventions, Elections, John McCain, Polls, Moderates, Liberals, 2008 Elections, Independent Voters, Democrats, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Republicans, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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