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Zogby Poll: Clinton And Obama Nearly Tied In Pennsylvania

April 17th, 2008
By JOE GANDELMAN, Editor-In-Chief

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A new Newsmax/Zogby poll shows rival Democratic Presidential nomination candidates Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama nearly tied in Pennsylvania — but the poll was taken before last night’s debate which some believe was disastrous for Obama (he didn’t perform well) and others think could possibly help (backlash against the widely-panned ABC News moderators could help him with fundraising and drive angry supporters to the polls).

Polls are all over the place but generally have shown the race far tighter than a month ago when Clinton enjoyed a comfortable double-digit lead. The Zoby poll also finds that voters are agree with Obama on his characterization of people in small towns, negative campaigning could be risky for Clinton, and that Clinton has faced some erosion but some positive imagery as well:

With just five days left before Democratic primary voters go to polls to decide who they want to be their presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are locked in a battle that is too close to call, the latest Newsmax/Zogby telephone poll shows.

The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday’s contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided.

…Clinton leads by a wide margin in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama leads by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points.

Pollster Zogy also offers some comments that — if true — do not bode well for Clinton in light of her performance in last night’s debate:

This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton’s pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working. Obama leads in the Philadelphia and eastern part of the Commonwealth, among African Americans, and Very Liberal Pennsylvanians. He also has a slight lead among voters in union households and has an 18 point margin over those who have lost a job. Clinton maintains her lead among whites, Catholics, Liberals, and Hispanics.

The gender gap is huge with Obama leading among men by 15 and Clinton leading among women by 15. But Clinton holds a wide advantage on the question of understanding Pennsylvania (58%-27%) and handling the economy of the country (47%-38%). She also is ahead in understanding the personal financial situation of individuals (41%-35%).

On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people.

On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39%—with 15% undecided.

One shift:

A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 47% to 41% edge. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set.

But there is some good news for Clinton:

Asked which candidate was most likely to improve the respondent’s personal financial situation, Clinton won 41%, compared to 35% who said Obama would be tops. Six percent identified someone else, while 19% said they were unsure.

Asked which candidate would be most likely to improve the U.S. economy, Clinton also held an advantage, winning 47% support to 38% who said Obama was most likely. Men favored Obama, while women favored Clinton.

Be sure to look at this poll within the context of others at Pollster.com



This entry was posted on Thursday, April 17th, 2008 at 6:57 am and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Approval Ratings, Primaries, Negative Campaigning, Pennsylvania, Democratic Party, Elections, Polls, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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How Bad Was Last Night’s Debate For Obama? »


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