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SurveyUSA gives Clinton 17 pt. lead in Ohio 3 weeks out

February 12th, 2008
By JILL MILLER ZIMON

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From Ohio Daily Blog:

SurveyUSA has released a new Ohio poll taken 2/10 and 2/11 and it shows Hillary Clinton with a big 17 point lead over Barack Obama among likely voters:

56% Clinton
39% Obama

Clinton is buoyed by a strong showing among women (62% to 33%), voters over 65 (64% to 30%), Democrats (58% to 37%), whites (62% to 32%), Hispanics (87% to 8%), and those for whom the economy is the top issue (60% to 35%). Obama is statistically tied among males (47% to 46%) but does extremely well among African Americans (73% to 24%) and fairly well among independents (48% to 42%). He is not significantly ahead among voters for whom Iraq is the top issue (48% to 46%).

49% of Clinton supporters say that they could change their minds, compared to 40% for Obama supporters.

That 49% who say that they could change their minds? Oh yeah, I know exactly who they are talking about.

UPDATE: For a different Ohio perspective on the same survey’s results, see Buckeye State Blog here.



This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 at 2:01 pm and is filed under Newsweek Blogitics, Primaries, Ohio, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, 2008 Elections, Polls, Democrats, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Viewing 6 Comments

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    Re-opening old Ohio Dem wounds

    http://www.ohio.com/news/willard/15488471.html


    "National security-minded women," not soccer moms. Interesting choice of words.

    "In the rustbelt state of Ohio Mrs Clinton is relying on the blue collar, lower-income vote, which has been solid for her elsewhere, as well as 'national security-minded women'. In Texas almost a third of the population is of hispanic origin, a group that skewed heavily towards her in Nevada and California, while she may also be backed again by a majority of Southern white men.

    Mr Obama’s campaign acknowledges that Mrs Clinton 'unquestionably starts out' with significant advantages. But it insists they will run her close or even win one of these states.

    Advisers point out that Latino voters have been more sympathetic to Mr Obama’s bid to become the first black president in states such as Arizona and New Mexico, where they are an established community and not competing with African-Americans for low-paid jobs or housing.

    In Ohio he is expected to highlight the Clinton Administration’s record on free trade deals, such as Nafta, that are blamed for the loss of many manufacturing jobs. Both states are holding 'open contests' giving a voice to the independent voters who have backed him before in the Democratic nomination. And, most importantly of all perhaps, he now has the time and money to campaign hard."

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_...

    Incidentally, Huckabee, who's good with people, rates Obama higher than Clinton.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/02/12/huckab...

    * * *

    Meanwhile, the Republican opposition looks weak. The Hispanic leaning toward Clinton is illuminating (it foretells a similar, large Hispanic vote for Clinton in the Texas primary), but it also brings to mind what is probably the #1 issue people who want a conservative alternative to DC's Business As Usual have with not only McCain, but with the GOP leadership (and with President Bush, all of whom are satisfying the GOP's most powerful special interest, the business community). The level of opposition to amnesty is high not only among Republican voters but among Democratic voters (other than Hispanics) and everyone else. This is a fundamental and populist position, not a "nativist," much less "xenophobic" [sic] or "racist" [sic] or ethnicist position.

    [news story on McCain]

    "Perhaps McCain's most destructive clash with his party was the Kennedy-McCain immigration reform bill that was ultimately blocked in the Senate.

    The bill provided for a quasi-amnesty, or as supporters put it, a 'path to citizenship' for the estimated 12 million to 20 million illegal migrants now in the US.

    Bob Shoemaker, a retired federal employee from Vienna, Va., echoed others at CPAC when he scoffed at the McCain assertion that he has learned his lesson from the public uproar over his bill.

    Mr. Shoemaker explains: 'McCain says he's learned the lesson: people want the border guarded. But that is not the lesson. People don't want amnesty.'

    He adds: 'Once you give amnesty, their children, brothers, and sisters can come in under family reunification laws. So it isn't going to be 20 million. It's going to be 70 million to 100 million.' Most of these migrants would be poor, uneducated, and would vote Democratic, Shoemaker says. 'The Republican Party is promoting its own demise.'

    http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0213/p09s02-coop....
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    Because the polling has been SO accurate this year...

    Seriously, take all poll results with a grain of salt or twelve. The only one that counts is taken at the ballot box.
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    I'm with you Tully - and my recollection is that SurveyUSA is one of the randier polls out there. Still - it's one of the first polls of Ohio since Super Tuesday, so there's that. Thanks for reading and commenting.
    • ^
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    DLS - I saw that Ohio.com article this morning and didn't think anything of it. They're making way more out of that than there really is. I hate the cliche, "it is what it is," but when it comes to the different way in which people are leaning in Ohio, there's just not a lot of commentary to offer that illuminates beyond looking at who is leaning which way and where they are in their roles in the state.

    If you want to read something far more interesting, read this comment about an event last night in the OH-11, which is Stephanie Tubbs Jones' district in Cleveland. She's endorsed Clinton.
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    Agreed with all above on the value of polls. At this point it seems to me that the most important part of the headline is not the 17 point lead, but the fact that we're still three weeks out.
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    "If you want to read something far more interesting..."

    Got it! "However, to win Ohio in the General Election you have to understand the line of scrimmage is in the suburbs and rural areas now - not the urban areas. " Thank you.
 
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