One of the biggest political dramas in this mega-dramatic political year is about to reach its conclusion in Florida where the question becomes: will former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani prove to be a master strategist or key player in one of the biggest political miscalculations in recent history?

Actor Fred Thompson dropped out of the Republican 2008 Presidential nomination sweepstakes today — a victim partially of missing his key moment in history, and not joining the race sooner when conservative Republicans and people with money to contribute were just waiting for him.

Is Giuliani fated for the same kind of political exit?

Will he be seen as someone who misjudged how early 21st century and the news media operate — someone who waited too long until his political capital dribbled out to near zilch?

The polls aren’t good for Giuliani but he’s still talking an upbeat game. The Swamp:

It seems that everyone but Rudy Giuliani has figured out how critical a victory in Florida’s Republican primary vote next week will be to his future as a Republican candidate for president.

Publicly, at least, Giuliani has shifted his must-win Florida rhetoric to important-win talk. A while back, he had said he must win Florida. Then John McCain came on strong.

Most Republicans in these parts believe that the once-mighty Giuliani, who has trailed even Republican Ron Paul in some of the early contests, must prevail in the Sunshine State in order to maintain a credible campaign in the Feb. 5 sweeps.

“It’s a real important win,’’ Giuliani said of Florida’s primary in an interview with Neil Cavuto for the Fox News Channel airing this afternoon and again this evening. “I don’t think any candidate ever puts himself in a corner and says, must win, have to win, must win. But it’s a really important win.’’

It’s important, all right. Possibly the end of the road for the Republican who once stood as his party’s putative front-runner.

Giuliani’s talk that he’d still be in the race is, indeed, just that. A loss in Florida would be WIDELY-interpreted as meaning he badly miscalculated — putting all of his eggs in a leaky basket.

And, so far, his poll numbers aren’t good. Just look at THIS CHART on TPM Election Central: he’s only ahead in a poll by one organization and behind in all of the others.

On the other hand, this is a year of surprises — and Giuliani is doing it his way.

The AP notes that he’s campaigning in Florida in a style where he is largely refusing to criticize fellow Republicans — which must create culture shock for Republicans and infinity shock for Democrats in light of the verbal dismemberment-style debate of Sunday night between the three key Democratic Party survivors.

Check it out, New York. Rudy Giuliani is being nice.

In the fight of his political life heading into Florida’s Republican presidential primary next Tuesday, the famously unapologetic former mayor is largely refraining from criticizing his rivals. Even when handed golden opportunities to smack opponents, Giuliani politely declines.

“I don’t believe that Republicans should be attacking each other,” explained Giuliani who built a reputation on ruthlessness, his wife, Judith, smiling sweetly at his side.

Giuliani briefly took his rivals to task this past weekend. He went after fellow GOP White House hopeful John McCain for not supporting President Bush’s tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, saying McCain doesn’t “have that same fervor” for lowering taxes. He criticized McCain, as well as Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, though none by name, for spending too much time in Washington or state capitals — “central governments that have plans to straighten things out for you.”

But he’s backed off since and seems determined to stay there.

Meanwhile, he’s keeping his temper despite some developments that can’t be welcome. Senator John McCain is busy raising money on Giuliani’s turf. And, from New York, Rudy could not have been happy to learn that former New York Senator Alfonse D’Amato is endorsing McCain.

Giuliani keeps insisting it’s “playing out as we thought” but its increasingly hard to believe this is what he thought, unless it was to be on the TV show “The Greatest Loser” — given stories like this one about his home state:

In one of the most ominous signals to date of a campaign on the ropes, GOP presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani saw a one-time commanding lead in his home state of New York vanish in the face of a resurgent Sen. John McCain, according to two polls released yesterday.

Combined with the news that his support in neighboring states such as New Jersey and Connecticut also is eroding, the New York polls throw further doubt on Giuliani’s strategy of gambling it all on a win in Florida.

“If these numbers are truly reflective of the electorate, then Rudy’s dead,” said Doug Muzzio, professor of public affairs at Baruch College in Manhattan. He blamed the slippage on the fact that “Rudy has been virtually invisible” nationally while focusing all his attention on winning Florida.

The WNBC/Marist Poll in New York shows McCain beating Giuliani 32 to 22 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee at 11 percent, with Fred Thompson trailing at 4 percent. Fifteen percent of 401 Republicans polled last week were undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second poll, by Siena College Research Institute, found the former New York mayor trailing the Arizona senator by 12 points for the New York primary Feb. 5. Siena put Giuliani second, with 24 percent of support among Republicans, behind McCain’s 36 percent. Romney had 10 percent, Huckabee 7 percent, and Thompson 6 percent. That poll has a margin of error of 7.4 percent.

Giuliani once held a 33-point lead over McCain in the Siena poll, the institute reported Dec. 10.

Giuliani blamed a competitive field for his slipping lead, and said he would remain focused on Florida, which holds its Republican primary Jan. 29.

Given the unpredictability of Campaign 2008, it would be foolish to write Giuliani’s national political obituary. But — even so — if he loses pundits will likely say the following:

(1) His strategy will go down as a massive miscalculation.

(2) He was high in the polls when the season started out when he was highly visible in the media in essence acting like a salesman, overcoming objections raised by key portions of the Republican’s longstanding winning electoral coalition.

(3) His decision to skip the early primaries meant he avoided some risks and could focus on Florida and other states BUT it took him totally out of the national consciousness in terms of national press coverage. Being at debates only matters for so much.

(4) His being out of the early primaries also took him out of the constantly-revised and ongoing national press narrative about the race.

(5) He overdid it with his 911 theme to the extent it became a guaranteed laugh-getter on late night comedy shows — NEVER a good sign. He ran the theme into the ground so it lost its impact and meaning with many Americans….whenever HE raised the issue.

(6) Giuliani stressed 911 so much he did not talk enough in specifics about how he helped New York become a safer and cleaner city.

(7) His big bankroll became less-big as time went on and since he was NOT in on the national press narrative it’s unlikely that campaign contributions kept pouring into unabated.

Fred Thompson miscalculated when he didn’t enter the race when “it was time.” Giuliani was out there — with a highly-skilled staff — but by taking a pass on the earlier-voting states he allowed others to get the ink, the air time, and be part of the dramatic press Campaign 2008 narrative.

So Florida means everything to Giuliani — if he really wants to stay in the race.

The irony is that a year ago the conventional wisdom seemed to be that Giuliani would have to bitterly battle parts of the GOP that didn’t trust him. It turns out McCain may be facing that task.

If Giuliani doesn’t do it in Florida and his candidacy is DOA when the votes are counted, it won’t be because parts of the longstanding GOP political coalition took him out. It’ll be because he allowed himself to fade out.

ALSO READ: Reaction to this political drama at…The Reaction.