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Election 2008: New York

August 3rd, 2008
By PATRICK EDABURN

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At one time New York was home to many prominent Republicans and was the center of the moderate wing of the party. Sadly that is no longer true although I have spoken with some who think this could change if the Democratic party in the state slides too far to the left. But for now they are firmly in control.

President: Senator Obama will win the state by 20 to 30 points. No contest.

Safe Democrat

House: After the 2006 elections the GOP is down to just six seats while the Democrats control twenty three. Of those, only two GOP seats are secure this year while twenty two of the Democratic seats seem to be safe.

In the 13th District we have perhaps a perfect example of the GOP situation in the state. Incumbent Vincent Fossella (R) had been a fairly popular figure and was expect to win easily. Then he was caught up in a drunk-driving and love-child scandal that forced him to step aside.

Republicans tapped Francis Powers, a popular local figure, but he died of a heart attack. In the end party leaders chose former Assemblyman Bob Straniere. In 2006 Straniere had been virtually-expelled from the GOP and many local Republicans remain unwilling to support him.

Democrats are also fighting between City Councilman Michael McMahon, a moderate and 2006 nominee Stephen Harrison, a solid liberal.

If McMahon wins the nomination he will probably beat Straniere but Harrison could have trouble. For the moment I am giving a slight edge to the GOP but it is a very fluid situation

Leans Republican

In the 20th District incumbent Kathy Gillibrand (D) is seeking a second term. In 2006 she ousted incumbent John Sweeny (R). The GOP will probably nominate Alexander “Sandy” Treadwell although he faces opposition in the primary.

At this point, the factors of incumbency and demographics seem to benefit Gillibrand.

Leans Democrat

In the 25th District incumbent Jim Walsh is retiring after nearly losing in 2006. The Democrats are backing 2006 nominee Daniel Maffei while the GOP is supporting former County Legislator Dale Sweetland.

Given his near miss in 2006, I would give the edge to Maffei.

Leans Democrat (pickup)

In the 26th District we have another open seat from a retiring Republican. Tom McReynolds won with 52% in 2006 and did not want to run again.

Democrats will chose between 2006 nominee Jack Davis and Iraq war veteran Jonathan Powers while the GOP will probably nominate State Assemblyman Bill Reilich.

Leans Republican

In the 29th District incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) and Democrat Eric Massa will do a rerun of the 2006 campaign. The race is going to be close, but the fact that Kuhl won in 2006 should give him a slight edge.

Leans Republican



This entry was posted on Sunday, August 3rd, 2008 at 1:35 pm and is filed under At TMV, House, Democratic Party, House of Representatives, Republican Party, Moderate Republicans, Senate, John McCain, Congress, 2008 Elections, Democrats, Republicans, Barack Obama, Politics. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

 
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