Are we a match for ISIS?
It’s quite possible we’re not. The numbers are daunting.
The CIA estimates that ISIS has a fighting strength of 20,000 — at minimum. The high-end estimate is 31,500.
Back in June, the Agency estimated that ISIS topped out at about 10,000 soldiers. But after its June 10 offensive that swept northern Iraq (explained in the above video), ISIS’ recruiting surged. Moreover, the group captured advanced American equipment during the offensive, which has given it an edge even against the well-trained Kurdish peshmerga.
These ISIS fighters are extremely effective in tactical terms. The veterans are battle-tested from years of fighting in Syria and Iraq, and ISIS has skilled ex-Saddam commanders in its officer corps. In June, 800 ISIS fighters sent 30,000 Iraqi army troops packing from Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. …Vox
And, thanks to continuing moves within Iraq to sideline Sunnis, ISIS is increasingly able to recruit Sunnis.
Aha! But we’re America. We’re huge and powerful! What is ISIS in comparison to a nation with such a track record!
Track record? Um… well…
According to the Washington Post, the US has failed to destroy a single major Islamist terrorist organization since 9/11. That’s right: after the so-called War on Terror began, the United States hasn’t managed to annihilate a single significant militant group. And Obama wants to make ISIS, one of the strongest such groups we’ve ever seen, the very first. …Vox
Optimism is scarce among those with experience in fights like this.
The point, then, is that everything we know about similar organizations suggests that the campaign against ISIS will take a long time, if it ever succeeds. ISIS can be weakened and pushed back, but destroying it outright is next-to-impossible.
“We’re not going to see an end to this in our lifetime,” Charles F. Wald, a retired Air Force general who oversaw the start of the air war in Afghanistan in 2001, told the Post. ...Vox
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In other words, déjà vu all over again. Another no-win American fight.
Cross-posted from Prairie Weather
graphic via shutterstock.com