A new AP-Ipsos poll is telegraphing a warning to Republicans in Congress: if elections were held right now the Democrats would be back in control.
(AP) In an ominous election-year sign for Republicans, Americans are leaning sharply toward wanting Democrats to take control of Congress, an AP-Ipsos poll finds. Democrats are favored 49 percent to 36 percent.
The poll was taken this week as Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty to tax evasion, fraud and corruption charges and agreed to aid a federal investigation of members of Congress and other government officials.
President Bush’s job approval remains low _ 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll. About as many approve of his handling of Iraq, where violence against Iraqis and U.S. troops has been surging.
In other words, if this poll is accurate, the Bush rebound has begun to recede and, except in the case of their own partisans, GOPers in Congress can’t assume that the public is going to go along with every political move they make — or don’t make. (Note that today there were notably pointed moves to pave the path for a new election to replace beleaguered House Majority Leader Tom DeLay).
The AP story, of course, has the inevitable spin:
“I don’t think anyone is hitting the panic button,” said Rich Bond, a former Republican National Committee chairman. “But there is an acute recognition of the grim environment that both parties are operating in.”
“If the Democrats had any leadership or any message, they could be poised for a good year,” Bond said. “But in the absence of that, they have not been able to capitalize on Republican woes. Because of the size of the GOP majority, Democrats have to run the board, and I don’t see that happening.”
Fair enough. The Democrats have a lot of work to do to present a positive, idea-crammed alternative to the Republicans. Some Democrats STILL seem to think that being the anti-Bush is enough.
But GOP hubris in the form of overreaching and seemingly morphing into the kind of bloated, ethically-challenged establishment political machine that Newt Gingrich once passionately battled against could still motivate independents, Democrats and some Republicans to decide it might be time for a change…even if the Democrats offer a tepid substantive alternative.
Of course, Democrats quoted by the AP don’t quite agree with the Republican experts who were cited:
The public’s unease with Republican leadership in the White House and Congress creates a favorable environment for Democrats, said Democratic consultant Dane Strother.
“The problem is you don’t vote for a party,” Strother said. “You’re voting for a member of Congress. And we’re a year away.”
About a third of the public, 34 percent, approves of the job Congress is doing, and nearly twice as many, 63 percent, disapprove, according to the poll of 1,001 adults taken Jan. 3-5. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3 percentage points. Public opinion of both Democrats and Republicans in Congress has been mixed, recent polling found.
“Neither one of the parties has done a very good job so far,” said Cristal Mills, a political independent from Los Angeles. “They get away with murder, they get paid to pass certain things. It’s the good ol’ boy syndrome.”
Talk radio shows and other analysts say that the numbers are stacked against the Democrats in the upcoming elections. But the AP story notes:
While many House races are noncompetitive, Republican strategists fear that fallout from the Abramoff scandal will give Democrats fresh opportunity for gains. But they dismiss suggestions that Democrats could take control of the House.
What does this poll mean? Like every other poll, those who like it will tout it. Those who don’t will say the methodology is flawed (but they would most certainly tout it and somehow overlook methodology flaws if it were in their side’s favor).
But simply consider this a kind of snapshot. A poll like this will create some political ripples. GOPers will be more prone to want to leap at a chance to replace DeLay. Some may feel they have to be a bit more independent of the White House.
It also suggests that, if the Democrats decide to seriously oppose the Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito, Jr. and it goes to a filibuster (no sign that it will yet), should Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist push the button for the “nuclear option” he’ll be doing so within an extremely risky political context. He can’t assume that the public is going to agree with him because it’s on the GOP’s side on that (and other matters).
The underlying issue Americans will confront as they move towards the 2006 elections is whether the system works better — and if there are more needed safeguards — with some form of divided government. Will some voters cast ballots not even so much for local candidates but to make sure that no one party runs the entire federal candy store? If these kinds of numbers show up in future polls, it could be that many voters are beginning to conclude just that.
UPDATE:
— Newsbusters says the AP and the pollster have “cooked” the data by oversampling Democrats.
—My DD thinks this poll should have GOPers panicking and that the recruitment of candidates is important to watch.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.