As a teacher of political science at a local university, and having a strong interest for Governor Ehrlich to win in November, I have been watching the gubernatorial campaign closely. According to a couple of polls (Rasmussen and The Washington Post), Ehrlich trails O’Malley by 8 to 11 points. This week, Ehrlich started his electronic media buys in the DC suburbs so that should level out the playing field but there a few suggestions i would like to offer…
1) Change the Mindset Within the Campaign. Ehrlich played it safe during the debate and scored a few points. Playing it safe in this election cycle is not a good strategy. The mindset has to change. 2010 is not 2002. In 2002, the Democratic Party had the worst possible candidate for Governor which helped Ehrlich to win. In 2010, while O’Malley has soft support among key Democratic voting blocks (teachers, state employees and African-Americans), he will not beat himself and will run a formidable campaign.
2) Change the Pace of the Campaign. The debate on WJZ is an excellent example of what is occurring in the campaign. Like a tennis match, the two players are volleying back and forth. Volleying is good for O’Malley because he is the incumbent. Ehrlich needs to switch it up and pick up the pace. Find a big serve and hit it consistently to get O’Malley off balance and on the defensive.
3) National Trends do not Impact Maryland. Across the country, Republican challengers are in races that are close because they are new faces to the political scene. Maryland is different. O’Malley has been effective painting Ehrlich as an incumbent while he is currently in office. The back and forth (Ehrlich’s record vs. O’Malley’s record) will not be enough for Ehrlich to win because voters will not pick up the nuance.
4) A Big Serve – Immigration. Yesterday, on the Marc Steiner show, I appeared with the chair of the State Democratic Party on a post-debate analysis episode. One of the high points was when I connected the 50% unemployment rate for African-Americans in Baltimore City to the Illegal Immigrant issue, the group that O’Malley calls “New Americans.” The response I got from the Democrat State Chair was that she was “speechless” and quickly changed the subject.
I know that Illegal Immigration is a big issue in the African-American community because it is a pocketbook issue. There are a finite amount of jobs that are available. Everyone that goes to an illegal “New American” is one that is taken away from an African-American. After my comment, there were calls to WEAA (hardly a Republican leaning station) that questioned both candidates on furloughs and what they are going to do to help the African-American community.
O’Malley’s “New American” mindset (in which he does not see these people as illegal immigrants) is THE ISSUE that will separate Ehrlich from O’Malley. It is a clear difference that is connected to real-life financial well-being to soft D’s that are waiting for a reason to turn their distrust of O’Malley into a vote of expectant hope for Bob Ehrlich.
I only hope that the Ehrlich campaign will use this big serve and use it often.
Faculty, Department of Political Science, Towson University. Graduate from Liberty University Seminary.