So does Al Qaeda have a grand plan? According to a piece in the German newspaper Der Spiegel (which is German for “we write more serious stuff than you see in many American newspapers”)the terrorist group not only has a grand plan but it’s in 7 steps — culminating in the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate by 2020.
The article says the info is in a book by Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein, who is said to have excellent sources in Al Qaeda. Here are the seven main steps, according to the German newspaper:
The First Phase Known as “the awakening” — this has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby “awakening” Muslims….
The Second Phase “Opening Eyes” is, according to Hussein’s definition, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the “Islamic community.” Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement.
The Third Phase This is described as “Arising and Standing Up” and should last from 2007 to 2010. “There will be a focus on Syria,” prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and — even more explosive — in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida’s masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization….
The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that “the creeping loss of the regimes’ power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida.” At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.
The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared….
The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of “total confrontation.” As soon as the caliphate has been declared the “Islamic army” it will instigate the “fight between the believers and the non-believers” which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.
The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as “definitive victory.” Hussein writes that in the terrorists’ eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the “one-and-a-half billion Muslims,” the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed.
Der Spiegel says following this plan may not be as easy as it may seem on paper and may be downright unrealistic. But it notes that Hussein is not an alarmist journalist, so it should be taken seriously.
In other words: we do have a tipoff on what lies ahead — a long, bloody battle that isn’t viewed by the terrorists in terms of one American election cycle, but an ongoing battle that will last decades.
Interestingly, according to Der Spiegel, violence against the west is not viewed as a major goal:
What is interesting is that major attacks against the West are not even mentioned by Fouad Hussein. Terrorism here cannot be ignored — but it seems these attacks simply supplement the larger aim of setting up an Islamic caliphate. Attacks such as those in New York, Madrid and London would in this case not be ends in themselves, but rather means to a achieve a larger purpose — steps in a process of increasing insecurity in the West.
So, if this piece and the book are to be believed (1) it’s going to be a long, hard haul and (2)there is a large goal that involves the establishment of a Muslim superstate…as a major regional and perhaps world power.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.