The seeming tsunami of polls showing Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama widen his lead over Republican Sen. John McCain while President George Bush’s approval ratings goes lower than Richard Nixon’s continues with this new ABC News poll:
A tornado of economic discontent is buffeting the nation, sending satisfaction with the country’s direction to a 35-year low, George W. Bush’s approval rating below Richard Nixon’s worst – and Barack Obama, boosted by economic empathy, to his best-yet advantage in the presidential race.
Given the global economic crisis, a record 90 percent of registered voters say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, the most since this question first was asked in 1973. At 23 percent, Bush’s job approval rating has fallen below Nixon’s lowest; it’s a point away from the lowest in 70 years of polling, set by Harry Truman in early 1952. Bush’s disapproval, meanwhile, is at an all-time record – 73 percent.
This means that, more than ever before, McCain is going to have to separate himself from Bush, perhaps even become highly-critical of him, if he wants to have a real shot at the White House. The combination of Bush’s low rating plus the wrong track poll mean many voters could be inclined to vote via the Big Broom approach in politics — sweep the whole crew out.
Powered chiefly by the public’s economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.
Still, Obama’s lead depends upon a shift in basic partisanship that will need to stand the test of turnout come Nov. 4. And while movable voters – those who haven’t definitely made up their minds – have inched down to 13 percent, that’s still more than enough to change the shape of the race.
In other words: all of the conventional wisdom you read from pundits and on weblogs (such as this one), and all of the self-assured pundits you see on TV could still be proven wrong. But the odds are against it.
The bottom line: the trending is not good for McCain. Given how volatile this race has been, McCain could still rebound — but it’s hard to see how he could rebound enough.
Some other polling updates:
–Obama is gaining in Florida and in Iowa.
–Obama has double digit lead on Long Island.
–Obama and Nevada are almost even in Nevada.
–Obama leads by 10 points in Colorado.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.