Sometimes losing is winning. Sometimes the way you lose, and the way the loss is perceived, turn it into the precondition for later victories. If one appreciates this political truism, the real tragedy of the Obama loss on health care reform becomes obvious.
What was on view here? A principled leader determined to bring about long overdue change? A fighter against entrenched interests who wasn’t afraid to speak out against them? Someone who understood that though in the end you have to compromise on issues as complicated and divisive as health care, you don’t give away the store in advance?
Any of the above? No. None of the above.
The Obama policy setters learned all the lessons of the Clintons defeat in this realm because the people chosen to make good this time around were almost all parties to that defeat. Like generals determined to fight their last losing war again but win it this time around, they dissected the entrails of the Clintons health care defeat and rewrote their own playbook to meet its challenges. They were then mightily surprised when the result was no better than the original because the country and the times were so very different.
The concoction that emerged from their recent approach, a classic camel designed to be a horse by a committee, is so much worse than it might have been had a very popular very new President started by demanding a single payer system, then grudgingly and angrily said he would accept a public option, then accepting whatever actually did come out with great public reservations. Then, even with a loss, Mr. Obama’s credentials as a determined changer and fighter for his true beliefs would have been preserved. Then future victories here and in other areas would be far more possible.
As it is? Well, he looks like a guy who doesn’t want to change the boat’s course all that much even though the other passengers are drowning as it slowly sinks.
The major achievement of the Obama Administration that has emerged from the health care fiasco is this: The President dissed and angered his base without winning any credit at at all from other parts of the electorate.
Some achievement!