The media verdict is coming in…a verdict that will mutate over the next few days into the conventional wisdom…a verdict that those running for election in 2006 and 2008 will have to analyze so they can possibly adjust their political behavior accordingly:
It has not been a great day for the GOP. The Washington Post has a roundup of the latest election results HERE.
Although some Republican-backed measures triumphed in some areas, the overall gist of this election seemed to be an angry message from voters. Key losses included two prime gubernatorial races. And, in California at this writing, it looks like Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is going to experience a humiliating TOTAL “wipe-out” as his costly special election proposals drown amid a tsunami wave of dissatisfaction over his job performance here.
This time Schwarzenegger lacked what Variety would call “big B.O” – meaning big Box Office.
Voters seemed to feel his proposals resembled the other kind of B.O.
At best, you could argue that yesterday’s elections were merely a minor blip for the GOP. After all, times are tough.
Taking a middle line, you could say it suggests that plans for a decades-long Republican electoral majority are premature. It is generally considered unrealistic for Democrats to expect that in a flash they can win back both houses of Congress in 2006. But the election results show the GOP would be foolish to take anything for granted.
At worst, the vote represented rumblings from the electorate that thoughtful GOPers might take into consideration to pressure for some kind of change in course — or at, the very least, style of governance. Reports the New York Times:
After months of sagging poll ratings, scandal and general political unrest, the Republicans badly needed some good news in Tuesday’s elections for governor. What they got instead was a clear-cut loss in a red state, and an expected but still painful defeat in a blue one.
The Republican loss in Virginia, which President Bush carried with 54 percent just a year ago, came after an 11th-hour campaign stop by Mr. Bush and the kind of all-out Republican effort to mobilize the vote that reaped rich rewards last year.
But remember this is 21st century America — the age of SPIN.
In case you’ve been on Mars, spin is the quaint American political custom where if a Democrat OR Republican gets in front of a camera, moves his or her mouth and says things that are patently false or that everyone knows are exaggerated or evasive it’s then accepted as somehow having scored points because someone uttered the words. Unless someone has an IQ of -23, they usually know when the Baloney Sandwich Special Without Pickles is being performed in front of them. But if a spinmaster moves his lips and say something, it becomes part of the record — as if it’s reality.
And the reality, without spin is: overall, this was NOT a good night for the GOP. There were local dynamics swirling around each of these elections — but the GOP as a party and Republicans as individuals may have some choices to make over the next three years.
The first one will be: how many Republican candidates won’t be able to maintain themselves unless George W. Bush comes into their district and campaigns for them — particularly if they’re in a close race? Well, if not Bush — how about Vice President Dick Cheney? More from the Times:
Republicans argued on Tuesday that Virginia was a local election driven by local events, with little long-term national significance. But the loss clearly stung, as did the double-digit defeat in New Jersey, a blue state that had seemed within reach for the Republicans….
Democrats, already emboldened, hailed the results as the first shots in the battle of the 2006 midterm elections, when control of the House and Senate will be at stake.
“Our voters, going into the midterm elections, are mobilized and energized; theirs are despondent,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Reflecting Democratic euphoria over what was perceived as a shifting electoral tide, Mr. Emanuel added, “Virginia is a bright, bright red state – shining red.”
And now some spin:
Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, countered that Democrats also won these races in 2001, only to suffer losses in the 2002 midterm elections. “It will mean exactly what it meant for them in 2001: not a thing,” Mr. Forti said….
Ken Mehlman, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said that in the last seven elections, the party that had won the White House the year before had lost the race for Virginia governor. As for New Jersey, Mr. Mehlman said, “It’s a tough state, and our candidate was overwhelmingly outspent.”
But the Democrats shouldn’t be too complacent. They need to have an agenda and solid candidates that can articulate positions, rather than just oppose Republican ones.
But, as Time notes, yesterday’s elections showed that the Democrats ARE LEARNING:
Democrat Timothy M. Kaine’s quick and convincing victory in the Virginia Governor’s race Tuesday night gave his party a huge morale edge and fund-raising boost heading into next year’s midterm congressional elections, and perhaps a lesson for the next Presidential race of ’08: Democrats can talk about religion too.
The first ad that Kaine bought in his quest for the statehouse in Richmond was on a Christian radio station in rural Virginia. His first television spot of the fall told about his experience with Catholic missionaries, when he took a one-year leave from Harvard Law School to service as principal of a vocational school teaching carpentry and welding to teenagers in Honduras. Red, white and blue “Catholics for Kaine” bumper stickers proliferated in the Old Dominion. David Eichenbaum, Kaine’s media strategist, tells TIME that he sees a recipe for national Democrats in Kaine’s victory in Virginia, a GOP stronghold that President Bush won by 8 points in 2000 and 9 points in 2004. “Talking about his faith gave people a comfort level that he wasn’t a big, scary liberal,” Eichenbaum said. “We’re trying to show voters that God isn’t a Republican.” Kaine echoed that in his acceptance speech: “We proved that faith in God is a value for all, and that we can all share, regardless of our partisan label.”
Also, Time has this take on what all this means to the GOP:
For Republicans, the night offered two harsh lessons. One is that Virginia could be a growing crack in the party’s hold on the South: Last fall, Sen. John F. Kerry carried the state’s largest locality, Fairfax County, becoming the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Lyndon B. Johnson beat Barry Goldwater there in 1964. And Kaine made inroads in the exurbs, the growing, family-friendly communities beyond of suburbs that were a linchpin of Karl Rove’s strategy for Bush’s reelection.
Secondly, Republicans are hobbled as they head into 2006. “The status quo nationally is bad for Republicans—they need to break the psychology that ’06 is going to be a very bad year,” said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. “They needed some good news, and they didn’t get it.” The results fueled Democratic hopes for a takeover of one or both houses of Congress, although the small number of races in play makes Democratic strategists doubt that is feasible. The off-year governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey tend to be overstated as omens for the following midterm elections, and Bush’s aides recognize he is in for a drubbing by the pundits. Republicans point out that the party in the White House has not won a Virginia governor’s race since 1973, and that they still hold a majority of governorships nationwide (currently 28-22).
That’s true. But then you factor in Mr. Bush’s steadily sliding poll numbers. Unless they go up, it’s hard to dismiss these results as anything but a message from voters that they’re not happy with the GOP. Some may do just that — and Democrats are probably hoping they will.
UPDATE: On the hot-button issue of gay rights, you could say it was a wash. CNN reports:
Also Tuesday, two states voted on gay rights ballot measures, to mixed results.
In Texas, a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage was overwhelmingly approved. But in Maine, a measure that would have repealed a state law outlawing discrimination against gay men and lesbians was defeated.
UPDATE II: Arnold Schwarzenegger, looking as cheery as ever, was on TV but it was more akin to talking at a funeral than celebrating a birth. Reuters reports:
With about half the votes reported, Schwarzenegger trailed on all four of the initiatives he had championed, and four other measures also appeared heading for defeat.
Such a result would mean that the $300 million special election — the most expensive in California history — would not change public policy and could hurt the Republican governor a year ahead of his re-election bid.
Facing a slate of disappointing numbers, Schwarzenegger appeared before his supporters in Beverly Hills and pledged to work closely with Democratic leaders in Sacramento.
“I also recognize that we also need more bipartisan cooperation to make that all happen. And I promise that I will deliver that,” he said. “The people of California are sick and tired of all the fighting and they are sick and tired of all those negative TV ads.”
He said he would meet legislative leaders in the state capital on Thursday before a planned working visit to China.
“We are going to go and find common ground. We are going to talk about reforms,” he said. “When I return from Asia then I will get down to business, oh yes, because there is much work to do.”
Analysts say that working closely with Democrats, the state’s dominant party, will prove key to the moderate Republican’s political future.
Schwarzenegger’s problem is that he has not governed like a moderate. He ran as one but in recent months he seemingly morphed into a conservative Republican, with deviation on some issues. He also seemed to be particularly at war with Democrats. Since Democrats, independents and moderates voted for him (many conservative GOPers did not LIKE or TRUST Schwarzenegger) they began to break with him in droves. He’s charming but has proven to be a poor politician in terms of judgment.
UPDATE III: It’s OFFICIAL: Schwarzenegger has to change his style (and some substance) of governance and go back to the kind of stances that got him elected or he better start looking for some new movie vehicles – because all of his measures flopped:
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger lost his bid to push through a broad package of government reforms in a special off-year election on Tuesday that he called in an attempt to flex his political muscles.
With more than 85 percent of the votes counted, Schwarzenegger trailed on all four of the initiatives he had championed, and four other measures also appeared to have lost.
As a result, the most expensive special election in California history — at least $300 million including advertising and administering the poll — appeared to have failed to change public policy and left the Republican governor wounded a year ahead of his reelection bid.
After this, in terms or political professionalism, he appears less The Terminator and more Kindergarten Cop.
UPDATE IV (by Holly in Cincinnati): Unfortunately (in my opinion) Ohio’s election reform measures (Issues 2-5, typically backed by Democrats and opposed by Republicans) also went down to defeat.