What have we learned so far in Presidential campaign 2008? A lot of things — and here are just 10 of them:
1. He who blindly believes the conventional wisdom might just as well plan his or her life from predictions given by a part-time telephone psychic. Many scenarios spun by talking heads, partisans, weblogs, analysts based on supposition or personal opinions were rendered inoperative by actual events and voting results. In many cases, the conventional wisdom turned out to be the conventional pap.
2. Being a clear front runner is not a terrific status early in the season. Even if the candidate tries not to stumble, media hype and expectations prepare the groundwork for a brutal fall if expectations are not fully met. And they often aren’t.
3. Candidates CAN grow on the campaign trail. Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton ended her campaign being the new flagship for the Clinton franchise: now red-faced Bill is the guy who’s along for the ride. She grew because she blossomed as a passionate campaigner, often stubbing her toe, but she emerged as a forceful advocate who even came across powerfully on television in her speech suspending her campaign.
4.Independent and swing voters have long memories and that can be a positive thing for a candidate. Even though his opponents now paint him as Bush Lite — and he sometimes seems to be all but saying the words “me. too” — polls show Republican presumptive nominee Senator John McCain is still being given the benefit of the doubt by many independent and other “swing” voters. They seemingly remember the McCain of 2000 fondly and perhaps realize he’s walking political tightrope. His reservoir of good-will has not run dry yet. Due to his independent support and the decline of the Republican brand, McCain is probably one of the strongest candidates the Republicans can put up in this Republican-unfriendly year.
5. Defining and demonizing a candidate can only go so far — and could led to underestimating the candidate. Democratic presumptive nominee Barack Obama’s decision this week to eschew public campaign financing and go with his big, fat Internet fund-raising money machine instead deflated any assumptions that he’s going to be an idealistic pushover in the campaign. Rather, his controversial decision indicated that Obama realizes that to change the political culture — even incrementally — you must work within that political culture. And that means using available tools to win. Are Republicans underestimating Obama’s status as a politician who came up in the rough and bumble world of Chicago politics?
6. Don’t totally believe bitter partisans of factions of both parties. Both McCain and Obama have problems with their party bases. Some conservatives still don’t like McCain. Some Clinton supporters still don’t like Obama. Both candidates could lose votes due to this problem (which would make it a wash). But polls show that despite the angry statements of conservatives and many Clinton backers (1) McCain has regained much of this GOP support and (2) Clintonistas are slowly bonding with Obama. Angry Republicans and angry Democrats are returning to their parties’ fold.
7. There remains a segment of Americans disgusted with both parties. Witness the emergence of Libertarian Presidential candidate Bob Barr, who is diving into the campaign with gusto. America’s political fields seem fertile for the planting of the seeds of some kind of third party that may not do well initially but could attract followers, if the right candidate came along. 2008 is too early. But it’s clear the feeling is there.
8. Beware of YouTube or flip comments said in seemingly small groups. Smart candidates will watch their words more closely than ever, which could mean less candid talk from candidates — but they stick their feet in their mouths at their peril.
9. Every state matters. The Clinton campaigns assumption that it could kiss of the caucuses proved a big mistake. Former New York Giuliani’s decision to skip most early primaries and focus on Florida proved to be a humiliating and unmitigated disaster. It isn’t just happenstance that Obama is making it know that he’ll be going after votes in all states.
10. Even though some TV and radio network execs think the wave of the future belongs to opinion-based broadcasters who mix their own political views (and at times their own “issues”) into their talk shows or newscasts, we learned that the broadcaster who was most respected — and beloved — was from the old school. Tim Russert used research, a prosecutorial style not derived from him trying to elect a certain candidate and party, plus dogged, painstaking pre-telecast preparation. It’s now clear he worked himself to death due to his high standards. And it’s now clear that his work and style was appreciated by millions of Americans. He left the scene having set the bar higher for the rest of the campaign.
Joe Gandelman is a former fulltime journalist who freelanced in India, Spain, Bangladesh and Cypress writing for publications such as the Christian Science Monitor and Newsweek. He also did radio reports from Madrid for NPR’s All Things Considered. He has worked on two U.S. newspapers and quit the news biz in 1990 to go into entertainment. He also has written for The Week and several online publications, did a column for Cagle Cartoons Syndicate and has appeared on CNN.