In any case, even if they succeed, they will have rule by Sharia- as that is the rule of law that the majority picked. The Shiites will establish a country very similar to Iran. Iran will fill any power vacuum left by the weak government, and you may still see ethnic cleansing of the Sunnis and Kurds.

I read in WaPo today how religious minorities (Christians and others) have no protection even from the militias, and are fleeing by the hundreds of thousands. It isn’t a democracy by a long shot, and is much worse for the average person than life under Sadaam.

This Iraqi government probably won’t survive. All the parties that won the election promised to immediately ask the US to leave. Once in power, they changed because they fear their new power would not survive the withdrawal of US troops. Presence of our troops is an immensely destabilizing force. Their absence will re-establish stability.

Iraq had nothing to do with Al Qaeda. Even Bush has admitted that. Yes, now Iraq’s a hotbed for terrorism. We did that. But there is nothing that will make the Iraqi forces “stand up”. They’re riddled with militia presence, they are the death squads, and further training or feeding them is debatable at best.

If US troops are removed, there would no longer be that popular support of the militias.

I don’t buy that one bit. The Iraqi government security forces have proven to be ineffective at best and corrupt at worst. Without US support I don’t think they can “stand up” and provide security to the country. If your average Iraqi can’t find security in their government, they will turn to any source of strength, even the sectarian Militias and death squads.

As far as Iraq’s near future, US withdrawl might bring some peace. Sunnis will kill Shia’s, but that’s already happening. There is a hope that the local millitas would form something like city-states, happy to remain independant and somewhat peaceful, but those groups would certainly be very prone to infiltration by groups such as Al-Qaeda, which is what this whole war was supposed to prevent in the first place.

As for solutions, let’s pull the plug and leave.
According to the Institute for Policy Studies:

US troops are part of the problem, not the solution. Iraqis want US out. Ending the occupation means bringing home the troops, the 100K contractors deemed “mercenaries� by the Iraqis, and shutting down the “permanent bases.� We owe the Iraqis. We owe compensation, reparations and reconstruction, not occupation. “Pulling out the troops is step one, not step last.� Terrorist forces are operating in a protected environment in which 61% of Iraqis support violence against US troops. Militias started as anti-occupation forces. If US troops are removed, there would no longer be that popular support of the militias.

More HERE

The Kurds are an ethnic division from the rest of Iraq. The Shiite and Sunni split is at its core a religious one going back centuries.

CS,

There is a lot of mixing of groups. Which all of the groups are very busy changing, largely through means of violence and intimidation.

There’s no good solution to what we so thoughtlessly started – and now we have to face the prospect of staying there indefinitely, which would break our military, or face a civil war which could lead to regional war. What a boneheaded policy this war has been from start to finish!

a dispute over religious dogma.

It certainly is at it’s core. You’re taking for granted that there are Sunnis and Shiites, but without that divide along dogmatic lines, there would have been no oppression of Shiites by the Sunnis.

Do you understand what I’m trying to say?

As for Iraq, my personal view is that we should try the Biden partition plan, if we the Iraqi people can somehow agree to it. Then we should get the hell out for good.