Beltway Kabuki

This week we’ve seen all kinds of drama both on Capitol Hill and on the news outlets, internet blogs, etc about the lame duck session and what bills will be passed. Last night we had the dramatic passage of middle class tax cuts by the Democrats and tomorrow we’ll see the Senate do nothing with the bill. Liberals are worried about unemployment benefits while conservatives are concerned about budget deficits.

We have people on both sides acting as if the world will end if their plans and proposals are not adopted.

And it’s all for show.

At the risk of making a not very bold prediction I can give a pretty good idea of what will happen in the next couple weeks (indeed probably next week).

First legislation will be passed to extend the “middle class” (under 200/250k) tax cuts either permanently or at least for 5-10 years.

Second legislation will be passed to extend the “upper class” (over 200/250k) tax cuts in the short term, for a period of say 2-3 years.

Third legislation will be passed to extend unemployment benefits for 21 weeks or so.

Fourth we will see some of the other domestic legislation (school lunches, etc) passed or prepared for passage in the new Congress.

Fifth we will see some sort of compromise on things like START and DADT. It’s doubtful either will be passed before the new session but we will have the teams put together to set up the negotiations on those issues.

The first 3 items are all but certain to happen, the next two will happen but perhaps in a modified version to what I have suggested.

In response to these actions there will be an equally predictable response from the usual suspects.

We will see earnest commentary from bright eyed conference/compromise committee members about how this is the start of a new era of working together (said era lasting until the camera crews leave the room).

We will see protests from the proper interest groups on both the left and the right about how passage of will ruin the country. Hard core kiberals upset about ‘giving money to the evil rich’ and arch conservatives upset about ‘giving money to the lazy’.

More moderate/mainstream conservatives and liberals won’t be super happy either but they will be more pragmatic and composed about it.

The same will happen on the various blogs, especially the usual suspects (IE Red State, Polipundit, Daily Kos and Huff Po).

Those in the middle will continue to be perplexed about the unwillingness of both sides to work together.

And then everyone will return to their dressing rooms for a new coat of face paint.