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How Democrats And Republicans Can Lose
Alan Stewart Carl gives us two great posts about the weaknesses of both parties this election season.
First, how Dems could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Then, why Republicans are positioned to lose.
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2 Responses to “How Democrats And Republicans Can Lose”
Carl makes some fair points, but the latest national polls show the Democrats actually gaining as the election comes. Everybody expected that disgruntled conservatives and Republicans would come home as the election nears. But the oppositie is happening. Angry conservatives, Independents and some Republicans are casting a protest vote for Democrats. CNN, AP and Diageo give the Dems an 18 point advantage in the generic ballot. And as I said on another thread, the generic ballot matters.
Meanwhile, district level data has the Dems guaranteed to get to 219 seats (218 needed for control) and 23 remaining seats as toss-ups. If the remainders split 50-50, Dems get to 230 seats. If there’s a real wave, and Dems get more than half of those seats, they could get to 235. That would be better than the Republicans have ever had since 1950.
Elrod,
I just posted over at Donklephant that what some view as the Republican’s strength and the Democrats’ weakness might actually be the opposite in today’s environment. There must might be such a thing as staying too organized and too much on message. Once a certain number of people realize that if you vote for your local Republican that you like, it’s just like you voted for Bush and the entire Republican leadership they just might jump ship. Even if their local Republican seems like a nice guy maybe they’re not too fond of rubberstamping. It’s what one of Claire McCaskill’s ads show. The ad shows Jim Talent saying in a public appearance that no one should server as the president’s rubberstamp and then points out that he votes with Bush 94% of the time.