Cut and run from Iraq has begun

The cut and run from Iraq has already begun, whatever the spin put on this process by the White House. This is the opinion emerging among key Asians and Europeans familiar with Iraq and the Middle East.

What is meant by cut and run? It is abandonment of an undertaking before completion because the losses or obstacles are so many that it is better to cut one’s losses and let the whole thing go.

The often-stated purposes of the US presence in Iraq were to provide a democracy-based political structure, including key institutions like parliament, police and justice, and rebuild an economy and country in ruins.

The US is close to reaching the end of the rope on both counts. Regarding democracy, the current quarrels between the White House and Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, are signs that the US bid to build up Iraq’s political institutions is in serious trouble.

This is partly the result of Washington’s biggest blunder, which was to insist on installing an elected government in Baghdad and then trying to make it do the White House’s bidding. It is imprudent to order elected officials to do things that their electors have not authorized.

The Shiites in Iraq voted to increase the power and influence in Iraqi politics of their own faction, in particular, and generally to increase Shiite influence within their country. The motives of Sunni and Kurd voters were similar.

All voters, of whichever faction, braved great dangers to reach polling booths. They wanted peace but did not get it. Now, after so much bleeding, it is hardly likely that they will authorize their elected representative to hug and kiss those of their local enemies.

The voters’ opposition will be stronger still if burying the hatchet means sharing Iraq’s oil and other wealth with the specific Sunni factions that ruled them cruelly for centuries.

It is even less likely that the violent religious and tribal factions in Iraq will suddenly turn to peaceful coexistence before they are exhausted by their mutual wars of attrition. It will take much more bloodletting to reach that point of exhaustion.

To make matters worse, the US has run out pressure points. That much is indicated by al-Maliki’s open defiance of President Bush’s demands. In effect, Iraqi politicians, especially the Shiites and Kurds, have lost their fear of US military power. They see every day that US money and weapons are incapable of forcing Sunni insurgents and the Iran-backed fundamentalist Shiite militias to their knees.

To the ordinary people supporting those factions, it is clear that the US has neither the means nor the political will to defend their enclaves against local enemies at the cost of more American lives. Therefore, they see no choice but to accept protection from their armed factions. Very few trust the Iraqi army or police because each is riddled with persons from the factions fighting on the streets.

The last couple of days have shown that al-Maliki prefers to pander to the imperatives of domestic Iraqi power politics, rather than do what the White House requires of his regime.

The Bush administration has blown the trumpet so loudly about how democratic the elections were that brought al-Maliki and his supporters to power. It cannot now dethrone Iraq’s first-ever elected regime to install a more compliant one.

Whether or not Bush cuts and runs, his strictures are becoming increasingly irrelevant to the political intrigues in Iraq and to the war among factions. In this sense, a cut and run has already begun by default.

A more concrete sign of cut and run is that American financed reconstruction work in Iraq is almost at end because the money has run out. There are no further plans for significant funding for reconstruction although the troops will continue to be sufficiently funded.

The $21 billion so far was spent mostly on buying security for the personnel of firms such as Bechtel, Parsons Corp and Halliburton, which got most of the juiciest contracts.

Water, electricity, hospitals, sewage systems and energy supplies are in worse shape than before the invasion. Law and order are in shambles. Under current trends, the civilian reconstruction effort will come to halt within 12 months if very large new funds are not allocated.

However, earmarking yet more numerous billions in US taxpayer’s money for Iraq’s reconstruction is foolish without any semblance of peace and security in the country. Most of the money would end up in the pockets of non-Iraqi security firms.

Therefore, it is hard to escape the impression that the cut and run has already started de facto.