Iraq & The Next Thirty Years’ War
The term Thirty Years’ War, a reference to the 17th century bloodbath between the Catholics and Protestants and their royal proxies in what is now Germany, is creeping into the blogger vocabulary in the context of a region-wide consequence of the Mess in Mesopotamia. Will the mainstream media be using it next?
Andrew Sullivan is the most recent to use the term:
“History will probably record that the United States accidentally jump-started a thirty year war in the Middle East. Oil prices will become terribly unstable, as it is used as a weapon by both Sunnis and Shiites. But that’s good in the long run for the West as well. Our politicians won’t take responsibility for the energy-environmental crisis, so we might as well let war take care of it.”
I bring this up because events in Iraq are moving so rapidly — and rapidly beyond control.
In October, I put up a post at Kiko’s House, my home blog, entitled Iraq & The Edge of the Universe in which I asked:
“Beyond troop withdrawal timetables, benchmarks and stuff like that, lurks an enormous question: What will happen to Iraq and the Middle East after the U.S. withdraws?“Answering that question is like trying to figure out where the edge of the universe is, but I’m going to give it a try: What will happen will be enormously wrenching, blood soaked and perhaps catastrophic.”
I didn’t feel terribly confident about that assessment then, but what a difference two months makes.
10 Responses to “Iraq & The Next Thirty Years’ War”
Shaun, good post. It’s, for Westerners, at least in the 21st century, almost unbelievable to realize that they are killing each other because of one’s sect.
Some argue that countries like Iraq can only be held united, if there is a strong leader, who is not ‘afraid’ of using force against the population.
In the short term there might be some truth to that, but in the long term?
Some argue that countries like Iraq can only be held united, if there is a strong leader, who is not ‘afraid’ of using force against the population.
That’s what Iraq had 2,933 US deaths ago, Michael, and countless Iraqis. How useless and tragic this war has been for all concerned.
Well now, back in 2001 President Bush did say that he was going to” “Turn them against each other”. I wonder if he had any idea how successful he would be?
The Muslim world has been quick to blame Israel and the west for every ill, with this religious war that is about to unfold they will be forced to confront their own demons. Maybe it will take a violent and bloody religious war for them to see the blessings of secular government.
I believe it was exactly that, but between E. Europeans that drove us to Bosnia and Kosovo. The specter of concentrations camps again in Europe, and of Europeans engaging in ethnic cleansing was too much to bear.
It’s time for us to admit this: In the Middle East, the voting is partisan by sect. We should know exactly what elections will bring in this region but how painfully we have learned it. In Iraq. In Palestine. In Lebanon. Free and fair elections have turned all three into proxy states for Iran. Hardly what we, Israel and the Saudis had in mind.
grognard
I’m trying to think if any of this would ever have happened if modern Israel had never existed. Nope see any reason it would have.
Krous:
You ignore roughly 3,000 years of history.
Shaun Mullen
Sorry buddy, the illegal migration of European Jews into Palestine after Jewish terrorist organizations murdered Arabs and British in the 1930s sort of destroys your assertion.
And by the way, the Serbs had pretty much the same excuse for their butchery also.
I’m only interested in the last hundred years….and the next.
Krous- are you saying that you don’t think Israel has the right to exist as a sovereign state? What about the Balfour agreement-where the British promised Palestine to the Jews?
That imo, was one of the great blunders of history, and set up the ensuing years of violence and bloodshed. (What we did in 2003 by removing Sadaam from Iraq is on the same level of monumental blunders that will cause decades of violence and bloodshed as well, imo)
BTW, in making my last statement, I am in no way blaming the Jews for making Israel their homeland- but I am blaming the well-meaning British, who set that region up for everlasting conflict.