Frustrated in Baghdad
‘River’ published a passionate and frustrated post at Baghdad Burning about the current situation in Iraq and more specifically the Lancet Study.
It’s very difficult at this point to connect to the internet and try to read the articles written by so-called specialists and analysts and politicians. They write about and discuss Iraq as I might write about the Ivory Coast or Cambodia- with a detachment and lack of sentiment that- I suppose- is meant to be impartial. Hearing American politicians is even worse. They fall between idiots like Bush- constantly and totally in denial, and opportunists who want to use the war and ensuing chaos to promote themselves.
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For American politicians and military personnel, playing dumb and talking about numbers of bodies in morgues and official statistics, etc, seems to be the latest tactic. But as any Iraqi knows, not every death is being reported. As for getting reliable numbers from the Ministry of Health or any other official Iraqi institution, that’s about as probable as getting a coherent, grammatically correct sentence from George Bush- especially after the ministry was banned from giving out correct mortality numbers. So far, the only Iraqis I know pretending this number is outrageous are either out-of-touch Iraqis abroad who supported the war, or Iraqis inside of the country who are directly benefiting from the occupation ($) and likely living in the Green Zone.
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We literally do not know a single Iraqi family that has not seen the violent death of a first or second-degree relative these last three years. Abductions, militias, sectarian violence, revenge killings, assassinations, car-bombs, suicide bombers, American military strikes, Iraqi military raids, death squads, extremists, armed robberies, executions, detentions, secret prisons, torture, mysterious weapons – with so many different ways to die, is the number so far fetched?There are Iraqi women who have not shed their black mourning robes since 2003 because each time the end of the proper mourning period comes around, some other relative dies and the countdown begins once again.
Please read the whole thing.
Meanwhile the Washington Times reports that “the escalating violence raking Baghdad and other Iraqi cities is pushing that nation’s leaders, neighboring Arab countries and U.S. advisers to consider a dramatic change of direction in the conduct of the war.”
It’s about darn time.
Some potential plans:
The most talked-about scenarios for a “Plan B” include:
• Phased withdrawal: Under this plan, U.S. troops would be gradually withdrawn over a period of months and a reserve force would be redeployed elsewhere in the region.• Partition: Under this plan, notably advocated by Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., Delaware Democrat, Iraq would be divided into Sunni, Shi’ite and Kurdish regions, each enjoying a high degree of autonomy.
• Coup in Baghdad: While given little credence in Washington, this scenario is being widely talked about in Iraq and in neighboring countries, both on the streets and among senior political and military officials.
That coup in Baghdad option, sounds a terrible lot like installing a new dictator who will aggressively restore order, doesn’t it?
“The army scenario is not a bad scenario for the United States,” said Robert Killebrew, a retired Army infantry colonel and national security analyst who predicted civil war in Iraq more than a year ago. “U.S. policy issues in the Middle East and Iraq do not require a democratic Iraq, it only requires a stable and friendly Iraq,” he said.
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According to most coup talk, the United States would publicly condemn the move but support the new government after a decent interval.
Personally, I see a lot in the plan of dividing the artificial country of Iraq up in three separate nations. The problem is, of course, that the West cannot simply decide to do this. It must be done and accepted by the majority of Iraqis themselves.
8 Responses to “Frustrated in Baghdad”
Good to see she’s alive and well.
So all of those potential plans, in addition to the remarks by COL Killebrew rebut some of the reasons made public to why the US had to go into Iraq. All I am saying is that there is a large disconnect with people like VP Cheney who tells the Republican base everything in Iraq is going well and the purported plans behind the curtain – especially when there is talks of removing the democratically elected officials to run the government.
In addition that first of three options sounds very similar to the plan Rep. Murtha had spoken about almost two years before the Republicans tore him a new one.
That is a powerful visualization.
Rubyeyes – That statement is an anecdotal validation of the Lancet report that claims 600K deaths in Iraq. As Elrod says – It’s glad to see she is posting and alive.
MvdG – Your opinion and the US publics opinion on Iraqis partition is meaningless if Iraq doesn’t accept this plan. Here is three links which shows weak support for this plan(partition).
From WP:
BAGHDAD, Sept. 11 — Moqtada al-Sadr, the powerful Shiite Muslim cleric, remains adamantly opposed to a controversial plan to partition Iraq into a federation of three largely independent regions, a top Sadr aide said Monday.
“Iraq must not be divided,” said Riyadh Nouri, the aide to Sadr, who has opposed the U.S. presence in Iraq.
“>London Financial Times
“>Juan Cole Al-Zaman
Al-Zaman says that it only passed by 138 votes, and gave the headline of “A Black Day for Iraq.” Parliamentarians were warning that the new law sets the stage for the partition of Iraq. Some are challenging the validity of a law with constitutional implications being passed by just a single vote.
BBC
Iraq PM demands US free Sadr aide
Mr Saedi was detained on Tuesday by US forces
Iraqi prime minister Nouri Maliki has ordered the release of a senior figure in the organisation headed by radical Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr.
If anyone is curious, do a Google search for – “India Partition”. The history of India’s partition resulted in 500K to1M deaths in 1947. A partition won’t be a clean and bloodless solution.
Biden is not advocating partition, but “federalism.” There is a big difference. Federalism will only lead to partition via civil war. Better to preempt things by truly partitioning the country now.
Exactly Rudi, for all those keyboard doubters.
Sadr will not have much to say about it if the Sunnis, tired of his militias “revenge� attacks, say otherwise. The problem with a split remains the oil wealth, inconveniently not located in Sunni lands. I do think a Federal system would eventually fall apart as the Kurds and Shiites decide sharing oil wealth with the people that used to terrorize them is out. I don’t see them having the level of forgiveness needed to pull of a log lived Federation. But a Federal state would allow us to get out, and that is about all we can ask for now.
I don’t know; with the backing of Iran and now Maliki looking like he’s completely caving, Sadr may have a great deal to say about it. He’s certainly making a statement in Amarah today and I guess it depends on whether he gets the last word.