Electorate 50% more willing to vote against the President than in 1994

This is my first proper post so I hope it goes without glitches! Anyway, a new Pew Poll came out today with lots of interesting data on the state of the electorate. The Pew Poll is quite respectable because it samples a large number of voters (1,500) and tends to keep the number of Democratic and Republican self-identifiers at close to even. This poll is no exception on that score. Most analysts will note that even after President Bush’s latest series of speeches related to 9/11, his approval numbers have stayed at 37%. The percentage of voters rating terrorism as a top concern has, indeed, risen (though it’s hard to say if this is a result of the 9/11 speeches or the foiled British bomb plot). But the most interesting conclusion of the poll is that the percentage of voters willing to vote against the President is the highest in recent memory. In 1990, 1998 and 2002, only about 15 percent of voters indicated that they were casting their midterm vote “against the President.” In 1994, the great anti-Clinton wave election that sent the GOP into power, 23 percent claimed they were voting against the President. But this year, 36 percent state that their vote is a vote “against the President.”

Why does this matter? Two big reasons. One, it shows that Republican efforts to localize these races has failed so far. Indeed, other questions back that up. 55 percent of voters say that party control of Congress matters. Only 44 percent said that in 2002 (and most of those probably supported the GOP). In 1998, an unusually good off-year for Democrats, only 41 percent said party control matters. GOP efforts to go negative on individual candidates may not be enough if the national wave is so big.

The other big reason is motivation. Off-year elections depend heavily on turnout. The GOP’s turnout record is impressive, both in Presidential and off-year elections. But when voter anger is so strong the other way, Republican GOTV efforts matter little in the end.

As a Democrat and a vehement critic of the Bush Administration, I am very interested in seeing the Republicans lose control of at least one house of Congress. The latest PR offensive out of the White House had me nervous that traditional GOP appeals to national security and terrorism would overcome voter anger about the status quo. And with gas prices dropping, I figured the Congressional polls would start swinging to the Republicans. But this poll shows that public anger is alive and well. If anything, Bush’s latest 9/11 speeches have done more to boost the morale of conservative Republicans than they have to swing moderates and Independents. In fact, another recent poll by Democracy Corps confirms this point. As conservative Republicans rally around Bush on the 9/11 anniversary, Independents and Moderates move even further away. The Pew survey also showed a great deal of movement of moderate Republicans (30% of Republican voters) away from Republican Congressional candidates.

All in all, the dynamics of the race show significant Democratic gains, and a likely takeover of the House. How much is hard to say. And the Senate is a big mystery. Democrats look likely to pick up Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island (even with Chafee) and Ohio. Missouri is a toss-up. And Virginia and Tennessee, once considered long-shots, are toss-ups too. The most worrying race for Democrats is New Jersey. But New Jersey has polled this way before: remember Bob Torricelli backing out of the 2002 Senate race just weeks before Election Day? In a Republican-friendly year, the Democrats still held that seat comfortably by pulling Lautenberg out of retirement. New Jersey has disappointed Republicans many times, and probably will again this fall. The question then is Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. If the Democrats pick up two of the three, they get 51 and the Senate (assuming none of the others fall).

Anyway, that was my first “official” TMV post. I’ll certainly have much more to say soon!