Iraq’s Shiites want more

Iraq has moved a step closer to breaking up as Americans mark the anniversary of 9/11 and even Cheney seems less self confident about the subterfuge used to propel the Iraq war. A break up would seal the failure of the Bush administration’s interventions and policies in Iraq.

In coming days, Shiite parliamentarians sponsored by the powerful Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) will try to push through legislation designed to help create a large autonomous Shiite region in the south. The region would control the Basra oil fields, which are Iraq’s main wealth.

If the ploy works, a large section of Iraqi Shiites will start creating a semi-independent region containing eight of Iraq’s current provinces. Outright independence would be a short step for an oil-rich autonomous region in charge of its own taxes and police.

Kurds already have an autonomous in the north though they have not yet obtained full control of the Kirkuk oil fields, which are Iraq’s second source of wealth. They would also prefer independence but fear the anger of Turkey, Iran and Syria, which house more Kurds than Iraq.

That leaves the Sunni’s in the central region. They could also have autonomy but will have no major source of wealth. Having been the minority rulers of Iraq for centuries, they are not happy about their destitution from both power and wealth. For the Sunnis, including the Saudis and Jordanians, this is a disastrous prospect. Syria is less concerned because its ruling elites, although resolutely secular, derive from a Shiite sect.

America would face a heavy burden because the autonomous Shiite region would inevitably be a good friend of Iran. That would make Iran the prime political influence in the entire Persian Gulf area.

For the world, Iraq’s breakup need not be a shock if it does not destabilize the region. The Soviet bloc and Yugoslavia have already broken up to create many new and mostly peaceful states. But Iraq could be different if its breakup results in a Saudi-backed Sunni state fighting a long war with the Shiites backed by Iran.

Iraq’s current constitution envisages a federal structure with three regions – Kurd, Sunni and Shiite – held within a unified Iraq. There are special provisions for the Kurds since they already enjoy a large measure of autonomy.

Cleverly, SCIRI wants to use the constitutional process to create legislation allowing autonomy similar to the Kurdish region for almost the entire south, which borders on Iran. The situation would be legal because of new legislation and adherence to parliamentary procedure.

The Sunni’s oppose this adamantly and may pull out of Iraq’s fragile coalition government. That may have little effect if the Kurds and Shiites come together in parliament to squeeze the Sunnis and deprive them of power permanently. But it would be catastrophic for American policy because the government would collapse and a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites could start in earnest.

Early signs are that the Kurds may stay out of that war. In fact, Kurds are already allowing Sunnis to move to their peaceful region to avoid being caught in current and future fighting.

The wild card is Moktada al-Sadr, the powerful leader of the poor Shiites of Baghdad and some pockets in the south. He controls a large bloc of seats in parliament as well as a well armed and battle hardened militia. Of all Iraqi Shiites, he is most strongly prefers theocratic government.

At this time, he does not support an autonomous Shiite region because it would leave him out in the cold without his own territory or wealth. That would make him a has-been among the various Shiite factions in Iraq. But his past behavior has been pragmatic. He may deal if he does not lose influence in the new situation.

In any case, the US seems unable to control the hornet’s nest of Iraqi politics and sectarian infighting. Iraq’s wily Shiite politicians may soon outmaneuver it and make it marginal to their domestic horse-trading, even if US soldiers remain on Iraqi territory.