The quagmire deepens
In recent hours, the US is being forced to back down in the UN Security Council because Israel seems unable to destroy Hizbullah on the battlefield despite steadfast support from Washington.
It looks as if the Security Council, emasculated by years of US and Israeli scorn, may not be able to soon deliver the durable peace now so vital for Israel’s security. There may be a resolution within days but an unsatisfactory one from Israel’s viewpoint.
The core issue is how to dismantle Hizbullah’s state within a state. Through its war, Israel is trying to cripple Hizbullah so that Lebanon’s other political groups can force it to disarm and renounce violence completely. No well-informed analyst thinks that is achievable at this time, whatever the war’s outcome.
The bad news is that unless the UN Security Council pulls a rabbit from the hat, Israel faces the near certainty of sinking deeper into the quagmire of South Lebanon.
Everybody understands that Israel cannot be secure without drastic political changes within Lebanon. The US insists that those changes happen before Israel ceases fire and be underpinned by an international army in South Lebanon with orders to fight Hizbullah as necessary.
But an EU decision kicked Washington in the shins this week. America’s key European allies, Britain and Germany, both joined France to call for an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations for a peace settlement. International soldiers would enter Lebanon after that settlement and there would be no need to fight Hizbullah.
Isolated, the US was forced to move closer to this EU position but that is not enough. Russia and China are still on the fence. Both are against using the Lebanon issue to chastise Iran although it is Hizbullah’s chief ally. And they do not want Lebanon to fall completely under Western influence. They are looking for ways to keep their foot in the door of the entire region.
In any event, nothing can be imposed on South Lebanon without Hizbullah’s agreement. Israel seems to think that pushing Hizbullah fighters beyond the Litany river is enough because international soldiers will enter the vacuum and stop Hizbullah from returning. That is wishful thinking.
Israel, which knows every inch of the terrain, is not able to stop the Hizbullah from the air, land and sea. How could soldiers from Turkey, India, Indonesia or elsewhere do that? They will be a few thousand infantry and armoured corps without tens of helicopters and planes brimming with the latest US-made missiles. They will certainly not have the IDF’s fighting skills or leading edge command and control equipment.
Most countries other than America and Britain do not agree that Israel is fighting to keep them safe against global terrorism. They see Israel as trying to make itself safe. Why would any democracy anger voters by taking casualties in Lebanon for Israel’s sake without significant bilateral quid pro quo from Tel Aviv?
Israel’s closest supporters, the US, Britain and Germany, have already said they will not enter Lebanon although they have the best-equipped soldiers. France is the only major military power willing to send troops provided that they are not expected to kill Hizbullah fighters.
Israel and the US want to use the Lebanon war to neutralize Iran and Syria as well. That makes getting a meaningful Security Council consensus capable of delivering peace that much harder.
France is working closely with the US to stop Iran from developing nuclear fuel technologies. It will support sanctions through the Security Council if necessary. But it will avoid linking the Hizbullah issue with the nuclear issue in handling Iran even if that displeases Washington.
Meanwhile, Israel’s quagmire deepens. Without international help, neither the US nor Israel can change the political order in Lebanon or halt Iranian and Syrian interference. That help is in short supply because very few governments trust Israeli and American narratives and methods on this one. Most governments fear the US so they avoid contradicting it. But helping is another matter.
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8 Responses to “The quagmire deepens”
Into the quagmire indeed. This was always the risk from the beginning. By going full throttle after Hezbollah and not trying to work out a prisoner exchange (as Israel has done many times in the past), Israel stepped out onto the plank. Everybody agrees that all Hezbollah has to do is survive. But Israel has to do so much more, and an all-air campaign has had the predictable result: failure to hit guerrilla targets, but TONS of innocent deaths. (Morality of hiding Hezbollah military assets in civilian neighborhoods aside, the world just didn’t buy Israel’s argument on Qana, however much merit it had. This is a propaganda war among other things. Israel never wanted to risk its own soldiers so it figured a high-tech air assault would do the trick a la Kosovo in 1999. Like the US in Iraq, going in on the cheap is disastrous.)
Israel now must launch a major ground invasion if it hopes to save face. But that brings with it a host of other risks, not the least of which are the permanent unification of Lebanese factions behind Hezbollah (Remember: Hezbollah started to lose support among the Sunnis, Christians and Druze after Israel left the country. Before that, Hezbollah was seen by many Lebanese as the only outfit fighting for national sovereignty). So, can Israel occupy all of Lebanon and destroy Hezbollah itself? Failure to do that would be perceived as a disastrous loss for Israel. They’ve stepped into the breach, and now they must go all out or end up with a much stronger Hezbollah – and Iran.
This is not Clinton distracting the world from Monica, it’s not the United Nations poking around to justify the 1.3 billion USD they’re charging us yearly to carefully ignore Sudan. This isn’t a ‘police action’, it’s not a tactical raid, it’s not a quick ‘in and out’, it’s not a surgical strike. They’ve tried that for decades at this point, and as you might guess from the fact that we’re still talking about it, the tactic has been about as useful as tits on a chair.
It’s a war. It’s been a war for the last fifty-eight years, with acts of war taking place on a regular basis for the last twenty years.
But, of course, Israel must stop.
Because, we all know how much it would hurt Israel to lose popular support in France, where just yesterday the administration stated support for known terrorists. We all know that the United Nations is an impartial observer Israel can’t afford to lose. Because the Lebanese people just happened to allow known terrorists into their government by accident, Israel should leave immediately, since terrorists groups funded by fascist governments never take over legitimate democracies. Because ensuring that Hezbollan troops have to aim that much faster before firing rockets, or are distracted by the targets of soldiers instead of children, those aren’t worth a war.
pathetic.
gattsuru makes his argument based on ideaology, elrod bases his on the cold hard facts.
My money is on elrod’s version, as the age of faith based worldviews comes to its well deserved end.
Isreal will soon learn how it feels to be left holding the bag by the boy king.
Despite gattsuru’s laminations to the contrary, what the world(france) thinks of Isreal does matter.
We in the USA will learn this as well.
gattsuru, well said.
Elrod: so what would you have suggest that Israel should have done huh? Peace? They tried it. Compromize? They tried it. Diplomacy? They tried it.
You don’t seem to be able to understand this simple truth:
Hizbullah, Hamas et alia, don’t want peace. They don’t want to create any state ‘of their own’, they simply want to destroy Israel. Because they fear they’re not able to do so now, because Israel is stronger now, there supporters (governments and individuals) are now suddenly calling for a cease-fire.
Maybe, just maybe, Hizbullah should have thought of that before killing 8 Israeli soldiers and kidnapping 2 on Israeli soil.
I know it’s hard to accept this truth, because accepting it means recognizing that there is no use in reasoning with certain people (a lot of people even).
Your refusal to accept the obvious, however, isn’t helping the situation either.
Quagmire? The bar keeps getting lowered. Soon, any military offensive that does not accomplish all it’s goals within 30 minutes will be labled a quagmire.
AustinRoth is right. This is ridiculous. After 3 1/2 years we still haven’t accomplished our goals in Iraq, why is our government judging Israel’s war a quagmire after 3 weeks to justify its caving in to the UN! The Bush administration has condemned those who describe our war in Iraq as a quagmire, and they refuse any timetable. Why do they insist on this timetable for Israel of mere weeks?
SnarkyShark,
We already know France’s opinion of Israel. They couldn’t care less if it was wiped out. Nothing Israel can do will ever change that.
AustinRoth
Quagmire? The bar keeps getting lowered. Soon, any military offensive that does not accomplish all it’s goals within 30 minutes will be labled a quagmire.
What would those calling this a quagmire refer to The Battle of the Bulge ? Just a thought .
Snarky Shark said :
Despite gattsuru’s laminations to the contrary, what the world(france) thinks of Isreal does matter.
The king of malaprop is BACK ! Hehehe
Snarky , look up the word laminations .