You read it here first
Sadly, the pessimistic scenario for Israel’s war in Lebanon outlined in this space earlier is becoming reality faster than expected. The situation on the ground may be worse than first hand analysts in Lebanon, Israel and the United Nations estimated.
It would be prudent not to neglect these signals as rhetorical assumptions. Several Western reporters have now confirmed that moderate Amal party Shiites are starting to fight alongside Hizbullah to face the Israelis. For decades, both were hostile militias fighting each other and later became bitter political rivals. Now, they are moving to be on the same page.
Worse, the top leadership of Al Qaeda, which hates Shiites as apostate “dogs�, has asked all fundamentalist Sunni Muslims to support Hizbullah’s war. The most violent of the Shiite haters is now calling for an end to over 1300 years of sectarian rift to fight Israel. Whatever its motives, the likely effects are worrisome.
In a Shylock-style outburst at a press conference in Rome, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora braved Condi Rice’s glare to ask, “Is an Israeli teardrop worth more than a drop of Lebanese blood?� This is a riveting sound bite for Arab TV from the man Washington put in place after throwing out Syria.
Senior analysts in Rome confirmed that the weak Lebanese army has no choice but to “outsource� the country’s defense temporarily to Hizbullah. Hizbullah is still being castigated for visiting destruction upon Lebanon, but moves have begun to bury traditional domestic enmities in this time of war.
Ironically, Israel and the Bush administration, which often revile the UN, are again asking it for help. Israel continues to reject almost all UN resolutions about its borders and settlements, yet wants the UN to force Syria and Lebanon to obey resolution 1559, which involves disarming Hizbullah.
The UN is also expected to sponsor a well-armed international force to effectively patrol a new buffer zone with Israel. This is in addition to quickly delivering humanitarian aid after all the main roads across the country have been destroyed.
For those of us who are friends of Israel, the issue now is how to reach a better place whatever the history, hatreds and inconsistencies that brought us here. In common sense, no good can come from entry into Lebanon of Al Qaeda, a totalitarian murder machine that will immediately try to radicalize local Sunnis and send them to kill Israelis.
Worse, if Israel bloodies but cannot destroy Al Qaeda in Lebanon more civilians will die in India, Britain and elsewhere as its remnants and cohorts vent bloodlust in less forbidding locations.
Israel’s war option seems frail. On current evidence, Israelis do not have the political will to destroy a town of 40,000 people cramped into two square miles a stone’s throw from its border. If victory is the goal, Israeli voters must find the will to visit apocalyptic destruction in Lebanon to break forever the enemy’s will to fight.
Failing that, Israel should quickly negotiate whatever ceasefire is feasible before battle-hardened foreign terrorists descend upon south Lebanon. They will turn south Lebanon into a witch’s cauldron in their global war of irrational hatred against the US.
Remember Chechnya? Russia razed Groznyy literally to the ground but Islamic terrorism simmers years later.
Alternatively, Israel could make peace with Syria. Return the Golan Heights in exchange for an end to Hizbullah and interdiction of Al Qaeda fighters. That could also stabilize Lebanon for the long term.
This kind of generosity in war, negotiated quickly, could pay huge dividends for generations to come on all sides. Such thoughts may sound naive right now but what choice is there if Israeli voters do not have the stomach to kill civilians by the tens of thousands? That is how victory was secured in the final weeks of World War II to create a “New Europe”, completely free of militarism and desires for vengeance ending centuries of warfare.
Even if Israeli voters suddenly found the will to break their enemies, how could they stop without generosity the children of those they kill from seeking vengeance upon their children?
Memories of suffering can be tenacious. Even the wise Jewish people have not forgotten the suffering of their ancestors over 3,000 years ago and each year since. The children of their Semitic cousins are no different.
If sacrifices for peace are not made generously today, how fair is it for the present generation to leave for their children a home in a sea of enemies?
It would be a confession of intellectual and spiritual failure to say to the next generation of children, “Some of our enemies wanted to throw us into the sea but we did not have the stomach to completely destroy them. Nor did we dare to make the sacrifices necessary for peace because of the distrust all around us. So we bought a little time and left the tough decisions up to you. We could do no better than to leave for you a home in a situation of permanent war with people who hate us bitterly.”
Which walls and what buffer zones will protect Israeli children from tomorrow’s higher quality rockets guided by global positioning systems? The technology is available right now in electronic road maps and some phones. It cannot be kept out of terrorist hands forever.
Israeli voters must confront their fundamental choices. Either thoroughly destroy all enemies so they can never dream of rising again for at least a century. Or be generous in making peace as soon as possible to allow today’s enemies to obtain prosperity equal to that of Israelis.
No mother, Shiite, Palestinian or any other, would send her children to war if that were to end their constructive and prosperous lives. Then the tiny minority of hate-filled fanatics would be easier to locate and neutralize without creating new zealots.
And the entire world would be with Israel in weeding out the fanatics because those few threaten the lives of all. Right now, that is obviously not the case because the US had to use its veto in the Security Council to prevent a condemnation of Israel.
America is a super power with many problems of its own. Its leadership is easily swayed by domestic opinion polls. Its own enemies are changing constantly. It may not stand behind Israel for decade after decade. Who else in the world is truly Israel’s friend?
15 Responses to “You read it here first”
Brij, please go stand in the Huleh Valley with the Golan Heights looming above. You’ll change your mind.
Ironically, Israel and the Bush administration, which often revile the UN, are again asking it for help. Israel continues to reject almost all UN resolutions about its borders and settlements, yet wants the UN to force Syria and Lebanon to obey resolution 1559, which involves disarming Hizbullah.
The big “irony” is that many on the Right in the US have called for the UN’s demise. This group is proud that the US has veto’d nearly as many UN resolutions as the old USSR. Now they come down from the mountain with 1559. Where where they when Lebanon needed help implementing 1559 after the Cedar Revolution. Some now say that Lebanon deserves Israel wrath because they didn’t curtail Hezbelloh. I wonder what happens when 1559 part 2 comes out – condemning Israel for the destruction of Lebanon. Will the Right demand a UN resolution condemming Israel?
“Such thoughts may sound naive right now but what choice is there if Israeli voters do not have the stomach to kill civilians by the tens of thousands?”
This reminds me of another nation that did “not have the stomach to kill civilians by the tens of thousands”. It withdraw from all countries where it faced terrorist attacks and civil uprising and released them into autonomy. That’s how Israel was made possible and how India became independent. Of course, this nation had a home country to withdraw to…
:-/
“Of course, this nation had a home country to withdraw to…”
A home country, out of reach for attacks, that is. Israel’s position is more difficult.
The latest story by Billmon is going along roughly the same line of thinking as Brij:
“However, given Israel’s situation and strategic dilemma, the Israeli people may not have a generation to come down off their war frenzy, and they may not be able to move on to another cycle. This could be for keeps, in other words.”
http://billmon.org/archives/002581.html
If you’d prefer, Rudi, we could nuke (or just remove funding) the UN, and do just as well. It’s called politics. You have to use all possible diplomatic options to keep votes from the peaceniks, something even Bush did in Iraq (Spending months building up to that war sure worked wonders. Bwhahaha…hah). We know, and we know Israel and Bush knows, that the United Nations will never provide a useful action here. Russia, and too many of the Middle-Eastern member states (and many Eastern European countries cowed by their muslim populace), will never support anything more helpful to Israel than simply just providing a UN held ‘no man’s land’ that will quickly be filled by UN-hired Hamas and Hezbollah men.
Possibly better : we wouldn’t have United Nations funding going into the (incredibly biased link alert) pockets of Hamas.
(incredibly biased link alert) None?
Do you really think welfare will stop a religious war? You think it’s just a lack of ‘prosperity’ that encourages people to become suicide bombers? Which of the 9/11 terrorists didn’t have a degree, again?
You think any amount of ‘kindness’ will undo two generations of training got racial hate?
You think giving land will undo the Doctrine of Revenge that propagates like that? The same people who are willing to kill dozens after an allegedly flushed book are going to stop at taking a certain amount of land that was allegedly taken from them?
If non-Muslims go into “Muslim land”, it is the duty of any non-Sufi muslim to fight them. How long do you think it’ll be til the ‘legitimate’ bounds of Israel are Muslim land? Or, hell, how long til the whole earth is? After all, “God” did make everything :eyeroll:
The solution to the problem is at once simple and unacceptable. Make terrorism from Hezbollah and Hamas and similar groups so well-fought that the monetary supporters will consider it a waste of funds compared to simply bribing UN officials.
Doubt any human worth defending would allow such a path, though.
“Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.”
-Winston Churchill
To make very broad statements: Post-1982-invasion Lebanon and post-World-War-I Germany had several similarities particularly in the way they were both politically and economically weak, and security was to be maintained through buffer zones and arms control. I think most historians would agree that the conditions created in Germany by the treaty of Versailles created an environment that fostered the rise of the Nazi party. We should not be at all surprised that radicals have strengthened in power in Lebanon.
Fortunately, following World War II, the victors employed a different tact than the victors post WWI. One especially, Winston Churchill, had direct political experience in both wars and in the period in between. Largely because of his wisdom, the folly of the outcome of WWI was not repeated and the cycle of violence was broken. Japan and Germany are now full participants in the world economy and the world is safer for it.
We have the history books before us, will we learn these principles of war at the cost of our forefathers or our children?
“Moral of the Work. In war: resolution. In defeat: defiance. In victory: magnanimity. In peace: goodwill.”
-Winston Churchill
For lazy folks – http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/magnanimity
Brij, what do you think about reports that the morale in Hizbullah is terrible right now? That Nasrallah, reportedly, admitted that ‘inside’ his organization, that he also admitted that he didn’t think Israel would react this powerfully and that he strikes an apologetic tone when talking to his ‘followers’?
Gattsusr say:
You think giving land will undo the Doctrine of Revenge that propagates like that? The same people who are willing to kill dozens after an allegedly flushed book are going to stop at taking a certain amount of land that was allegedly taken from them?
This is why Israel bombs Lebanon killing 10 for every 1 Israelis. This is why an Israelis general says 10 laser guided presicion bomb for every Katyusha unguided “bootle” rockets. Israel is fighting a Cheetos war, with nice footage of laser guided bombs. Lets see them go door to door and fight man to man to defeat and disarm Hezbelloh. Then the UN and the World can enforce a cease fire. From 12,000 feet a pilot sees all as terrorists.
Is an Israeli teardrop worth more than a drop of Lebanese blood?
On the real, I’m just waiting for the homeland promised to the gypsies after the nazis slaughtered a couple million of them. Is there a Gypsyia anywhere? I’m just saying.
Oh…it such an imperfect world. Why don’t we just nuke it to death?
Michael says:
Brij, what do you think about reports that the morale in Hizbullah is terrible right now?
LOL – That is why the brave IDF is not going into Lebanon full bore, just give them more “Scock and Awe”. And why the JP and IDF spokesmen tell us every day they have Bint Jbeil under control. Stop reading the Zionists rags!! Show some links to The Star saying this – not JP.
This mid east explosion was not just bound to happen it had to happen, and our own country struck the match that lit the fuse the first day of the Iraq invasion.
This nitwit (ugh) president, and his selected nitwits IGNORED every warning as to what would happen if Iraq should be invaded. Going into Afghanistan with a uniformed troop force afer bin Laden was bad enough, let alone an invasion of Iraq.
Here is the either ignored or forgotten fact.
On September 11, 2001 the United States, WAS NOT attacked by any soverign nations army on orders of government.
Iraq The Model has a somewhat strange post which includes:
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It’s rather a pessimistic scenario that I am reading from signs I see in the atmosphere; I hear and see that some Shia parties with strong militias are seeking a truce (not peace) with Sunni counterparts especially those with significant militias but this in my opinion will be more like a sectarian truce than a true national reconciliation.
But again, why would they seek truce with all the deeply rooted differences between them?
Well the unpleasant scenario I’m expecting is basically that these parties want this truce to fix one front and pave the way for the beginning of a Sunni-Shia joint Islamic insurgency against the US and the UK in Iraq, and I call it Islamic because that’s how the planning party wants it to look like to persuade militants of the other sect to join them in their next mischief or at least to guarantee that the other sect would remain neutral during the conflict they are planning to spark.
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Remember these guys are pro Amerucan and pro occupation. Hopefully they are hallucinating.
Too many years of hate and militancy, we might have been able to pull of a peace ten years ago but now I don’t know. Remember that Sharon went to the temple mount just to stir up the Palestinians and start the intafada we are still dealing with today. Too late he realized that the settlements were indeed the problem and completely changed course, starting with the evacuation of Gaza. The wall will not stop the militants, they will come year after year, generation after generation, any peace is transitory. A wealthy and prosperous Palestine might be less prone to the urgings of the militants, but I just don’t see a final solution.