Where did you get this figure from, Hizbollah.org? There are only two, TWO, Lebanese prisoners in Israeli prisons.
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I suppose you actually saw just those TWO Lebanese prisoners with your own eyes, and ARE NOT depending on some Mossad report you read somewhere or perhaps you took THE GUIDED TOUR WHEN YOU WERE THERE.

The last time I was in Israel, 2004, there were considerably more than TWO Lebanese in Istaeli prisons. This I saw with MY OWN EYES!

gattsuru writes:

“We don’t know where Hezbollah and Hamas are getting their funding.”

You may not know but the Mossad and NSA are well-informed in these matters.

Sal, as usual, completely in moonbat territory:

“Then how do the Shia Arabs in Lebanon get their 9,000 Arab POWs back from Israeli prisons?”

Where did you get this figure from, Hizbollah.org? There are only two, TWO, Lebanese prisoners in Israeli prisons. Both are convicted terrorists. One, Samir Kuntar, is serving multiple life sentences for killing a four-year-old girl with a rifle butt.

Boring Lecture Follows:
99% of people people want the same thing – security and an opportunity to maintain/enhance the well being of their family. In developed countries, most people rely on the state and its legal apparatus to maintain their physical and economic security. They have access not only to police, but also banks, stock exchanges, and other titles to private property.

In less developed countries, often, people cannot rely on the state to provide this security. Their land may not have clear title, their banks may fail, their currency may devalue, the police may not appear. They really only have one way to manage risk, by investing social capital in other people in their community (and primarily their children).

This forces them to rely much more on immediate family, extended family, and their community than we are accustomed to in developed countries. Often to preserve their security, they make sacrifices of individuality and liberties that we take for granted.

They are at the mercy of the major power and consensus in the community. If given a viable alternative that provides for economic opportunity coupled with more security, I think most people will choose allegiances that move their families in that direction of increased individuality and liberty. However, until there are institutions that can guarantee both economic and physical security, their allegence will remain with the powers in their local community.

Unfortunately, the events of the past two weeks have probably weakened local’s perception that the the Lebanese government can offer long term economic or physical security. This will surely lead to a strengthening of loyalty to local community groups (such as Hizbollah) and not the national government.

Lets not forget the Israelis are no better than the Hezbollah in this forever conflict. They do NOT CARE if they destroy Lebanon or kill Lebanese and never have.

Demonizing them and trying to root them out and destroy them will destroy Lebanon as well, earning the wrath of those whose hearts and minds George Bush says he is trying to win. It makes me doubt his sincerity.

Brij Khindaria also exposes the culpability of those who harbor Hezzbalah and allow them to operate within their community.

But most impressive was the tone used to express each of these divergent opinions.

Then how do the Shia Arabs in Lebanon get their 9,000 Arab POWs back from Israeli prisons? By capturing some trading stock, thats how. By getting the attention of Israel and the world.

Really, Hezbollah was left no choice. The Israelis have NEVER tried to sooth these people. They NEVER tried to create some kind of dialog. They just put forth threats as if they were not impressed by these lowly mongrels across the boarder. You don’t have any tanks and airplanes and screw your little silly rockets. Come back when you have something to negotiate with. So they did.

All money gained by Hezbollah will be used to kill Israelis. Period.

Untill the people that have the ability to alter the world realize you can’t force people to do what you want (other than dictators) the merry go round of war is going to continue. War has it’s place, and I am not some peace and love hippie type, but it’s gotta be used only when nessicary. Israel had a good chance to put Hezbollah in a bad situation when this started, if they had just been more thoughful of peace after the war with Hezbollah was over. If they had hurt Hezbollah in the southern part of Lebanon only, recognized Lebanon’s government (a carrot), and asked them to assist them in the recovery of the 2 IDF soldiers. Maybe it wouldn’t have been perfect, but undercutting these kinds of organizations by offering an olive branch to one of the ME whipping boys (Lebanon) causes terrorist groups to loose operating areas, and public support. Instead the IDF bombs Beirut back to the early 1980′s thus making Hezbollah possibly more popular…bad move.

The only way to win against them is to make them irrelevant for the people who hide them in their homes. That requires making the carrots much bigger and the sticks much smaller

I think it’s understÆ¡d here that Israel can’t do it with carrots alone any more than it can with the stick alone. Ideologues on boths sides will always object to the proportionate response that aggressive incidents against Israel provoke.

Rule one : follow the money.

We don’t know where Hezbollah and Hamas are getting their funding. If it’s just the government of the country housing them, yes, turning public support might work, and to turn support you have to do more than make the bad guys look bad, you have to make the good guys look good.

But democracies, largely, don’t do well promoting terrorism. Hezbollah’s too much of a treat to the other political parties to be encouraged or given arms, unless the other parties like their candidates being shot in the head. And many of the captured Hezbollan arms don’t match the Lebanese military (and, yes, we do know – we rearmed a good 80-90% of Lebanon’s military forces to their current status).

If the weapons and funding are from other countries, the ‘hearts and minds’ of the people of Lebanon woon’t matter. And turning tail and running will only encourage these other countries – who weren’t punished, weren’t damaged – without doing the maximum economy damage (since weapons, ammunition, transportation, and training, all aren’t cheap).

While it’s not the most effective strategy, the ‘bleed the enemy’s coffers dry’ tactic is fairly well proven.

One thing that I think Israel did achieve is a deeper understanding about how tenuous things are in the Middle East. I don’t think that Israel’s existence is threatened by either Hamas or Lebanon but Iranian nuclear missles … perhaps the Sunni arab countries, Russia and China may be a little more open minded to dealing with Iran now. I hope so else I could see Lebanon being a warmup for the main event next time.