The Lebanon resolution provides a breathing space
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UN Security Council resolution 1701 which was approved by consensus in recent hours is likely to make it hard for Israel to launch another wide war in Lebanon if Hezbollah attacks it in the future.
The shooting will not stop until late August 13 because both Lebanon and Israel have yet to approve the resolution in their national cabinets. That will take at least 48 hours during which the fighting is likely to intensify as both Hezbollah and Israel try to improve their last minute military gains.
The resolution’s chief weakness is that it is approved under Chapter 6 of the UN Charter. That means the expanded UN peacekeeping force it envisages, called UNIFIL, is not explicitly authorized to shoot to kill or disarm Hezbollah fighters.
Regardless of the spin that Israel, the US and Britain put on this resolution in coming days, it holds only small advantages for Israel and is far from a victory. The chief advantage is that Israel continues to have the right to conduct riposte to any further aggressive acts by Hezbollah after the shooting stops.
Former US Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleberger said on Friday Israel may have acquiesced to Security Council intervention because the war may be less successful than Tel Aviv claims in its public statements. That is also the impression among Security Council diplomats and was a reason for the consensus. China and Russia joined the consensus because they feel the Hezbollah fought Israel to a draw and has discouraged Tel Aviv from resorting to similar wide wars in the future.
Other advantages for Israel are that the resolution asks Hezbollah to stop all attacks immediately while telling Israel to cease “all offensive military operations� without ruling out defensive operations. It also calls for “the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers� while saying only that efforts should be made to settle the issue of the hundreds of Lebanese prisoners detained in Israel.
Another advantage is that it says the area between the Blue Line and the Litani river in southern Lebanon should be made “free of any armed personnel and weapons other than those of the Lebanese armed forces and UNIFIL�. Thus, Israel gets the buffer zone it wanted without having conquered that entire territory.
However, all of these advantages have a sting in the tail. The buffer zone will contain 15,000 Lebanese soldiers and a UNIFIL expanded from 2,000 to 15,000 soldiers, probably including many French and Turkish soldiers. That will make it very hard to launch another war as wide as this one in riposte for any further act of Hezbollah aggression. Israel may find it is trapped by the terms of this resolution in the future.
Another problem is that the resolution again leaves to Lebanon the responsibilities of making the south both weapons free and free of aggression started by Hezbollah. At the same time, it gives the Lebanese government no new means with real teeth to disarm Hezbollah or to expand authority over all of Lebanon. It merely repeats earlier ineffective calls and does nothing to initiate changes in Lebanon’s political landscape.
UN troops present in the buffer zone will not be able to prevent or even police Hezbollah to prevent it from building new networks with civilians who support its goals. Its political goal of destroying Israel is not affected in any way. The troops will merely separate the two warring sides for as long as shooting does not start again. Then, if either side does not hesitate to kill UN troops as collateral damage a new war would begin while those troops scurry to be evacuated as foreigners.
In summary, failing new developments on the ground to end Hezbollah’s military capabilities this resolution is unlikely to win Israel more than just a breathing space. If a new war starts with Hezbollah, Israel will face very difficult decisions about turning French, Turkish and Lebanese peacekeepers into collateral damage.
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15 Responses to “The Lebanon resolution provides a breathing space”
I’m afraid that distinction is its fatal weakness, unfortunately. We’ve seen this before. Without that specific authority, this is doomed to fail – and in many ways it’s a giant step backward in history. I hate to say it, but it is a considerable defeat for the Israelis as it stands now. Any way you look at it – Diplomatic, PR, or military, Hezbollah earned far more respect in the region than they deserve. And, similar to the US in Iraq, it does more to point out the limits of Israeli power and influence than to strengthen it.
I wonder how long Olmert will last?
The Lebanese foreign minister said they would accept the deal, Rice said basically the same thing. Mike P: Yes, it looks like there are going to be some problems. Problem one is the bunker system built up by Hezbollah, will this extensive system be abandoned by them after so much work? Will it be destroyed?
Problem two, what does the peacekeeping force do if rockets are fired over their heads, as the Druze leader pointed out? Long term, how long do these forces have to stay , years, decades? Maybe this is only a temporary solution but that is about all we can expect in the Middle East.
Good analysis, as usual. As I said on another thread, there is a victory of sorts for all here: Israel gets Hezbollah above the Litani. Lebanon gets peace and a chance to rebuild. And Hezbollah survives as an Arab hero.
In the end, Hezbollah wins out, though. The Lebanese forces are a joke. They are poorly manned, they have rusty equipment, and they are completely divided internally. More importantly, they will NEVER take on Hezbollah because they don’t want a civil war. UNIFIL has only marginally more teeth than before, but not enough to keep Hezbollah out of the area below the Litani. Within months, I bet Hezbollah starts sneaking back in and rebuilding bunkers and rocket launch emplacements.
Israel, on the other hand, suffers a draw. It’s political leadership is under intense scrutinty. This will look like defeat within Israel and the Cabinet will not survive. Go and read Haaretz (left) and JPost (right) for a general consensus that Olmert has been an utter failure. Moreover, the IDF will suffer a lack of confidence. Sure, they can always beat Hamas and other ragtag Palestinian outfits. But when faced with a modern, fully-equiped, well-trained guerrilla army, they could not win.
Whatever happens, eventually the Israelis will find an excuse to take all of Lebanon, force its people into refugee camps and fulfill another portion of the zionist doctoring of restoring all the lands of king David to Israel.
Unless…
salmenio,
thanks for adding the idiot response…i needed some comedy today
Sal: do you write for Letterman or Leno?
Isreal has learned that being able to treat Lebenon as its personal whipping boy is now a non-starter.
I dearly wish that Russia or China will supply Lebenon with their very best AA missles in case Likud should make a come-back and forget the lessons learned here.
The US should do this, but since the Defense department is a policy arm of Isreals, there is no chance.
Good luck to the Lebanese people, the true victims in all this.
BTW, the Iranians reversed engineered the TOW missles that Ollie and the original Neo-con idiots sold them. This is part of the reasons for Hezzys success. More poisen seeds from the St Ronnie era.
Crappy foriegn policy from yahoos is the the gift that keeps on giving. Just remember this in the future when some Rush clone is trying to blame Democrats for the faluires in the future that were created in todays modern debacles.
Olmert has failed to do what’s in the best interest of Israel. There are two main reasonings in Israel -> one is represented by Haaretz the other by JPost. Both, both left and right, agree: Olmert messed up tremendously. He should never accept this ridiculous resolution. If he withdraws within the coming days from Lebanon, he’ll loose support from both the Right ánd Left. The only person who thinks he did well, is Olmert himself probably.
Mark my words: it could very quickly be goodbye Olmert, hello Netanyahu.
Olmert messed up tremendously. He should never accept this ridiculous resolution.
I sort of agree. By accepting this he puts paid to the “we couldn’t tolerate the situation’ cry. Apparently they could, and so all the dead Lebanese kids on TV were killed for not for very much. Wounded pride apparently.
A better solution would have to not gone batsh*t crazy in the first place.
Isreal came out of this diminished in every way. I used to be quite an Isreal fan, but not anymore. They are pretty good against rock-throwing teenagers. Against real oppisition, not so much.
That could be said indeed. The situation doesn’t change drastically enough to explain why Israel went to war (half heartedly). Olmert will most likely try to paint this as some sort of victory for Israel, but just looking at the facts I think that one has to acknowledge that Siniora is the winner, Hizbullah will be (rightfully in my opinion) regarded to be the winner as well and Israel has lost tremendously.
Meanwhile, the IDF tripled its presence in southern Lebanon -> up to 30 000 IDF soldiers are there right now -> the IDF makes a grant push for the Litani river -> the goal is to take control of the entire area within a couple of days
The problem the IDF ran into was the bunker and defensive system, Hezbollah had done their homework and had created a defense that played to their strength, secrecy and the desire of the IDF to keep their casualties low. By operating as independent small groups fighting and retreating from one well concealed fortified position to another they could constantly inflict casualties, something Israeli public opinion would not tolerate for long. The IDF was caught in a dilemma, they needed to show progress but to take these positions quickly you loose people [talk to any WW2 vet from the Pacific]. Modern “bunker buster� bombs can help but first you have to identify where the positions are, and that takes boots on the ground.
It will be interesting to see how the IDF reacts to this, I am thinking they might want to cut off escape/supply routes along the Litani river to pressure Hezbollah. The only silver lining in this for the IDF is that they now know that Hezbollah has changed tactics and are far more resourceful than previously thought, better to find this out now than latter. Elrod, I agree, Olmert is out; how Israel sorts this out politically is the question.
P Lang
Pat Lang at SicSemper Tyrannis has some post critical of the ground attack and the positioning of Israelis tanks in valleys were they were suseptible to TOW missiles and other anti-tank weapons. Maybe Israel needs a cease fire to avoid a real war, with many Israelis causualties, to avoid a larger PR nightmare at home. Olmert’s prosecution of this fight makes Rumsfeld look good – LOL.
Wow, looks like there was no reconnaissance or infantry support at all.
Even better than the bunkers – by not wearing uniforms and hiding among women, children and other “civilians” every Israeli strike killed only the “innocent” and never a soldier or a supporter.
The cease fire is a joke anyway, Hezballos will have some reason why they won’t quit.
PING:
TITLE: Goodbye Olmert, Hello Netanyahu
BLOG NAME: Liberty and Justice
Olmert agreed to this resolution. By doing so he didn’t choose to do what’s in the best interest of the Israeli people, he simply chose to make the international community happy.
Hizbullah will be regarded the winner in the Arab world, Israel will appear to have been unable to fight Hizbullah effectively and Olmert now comes across as a leader who doesn’t know what to do when facing a crisis.
PING:
TITLE: Peace in Our Time
BLOG NAME: The Heretik
This is not peace in our time: “The Security Council agreed unanimously on Friday on a measure calling for a full cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, deploying 30,000 Lebanese and United Nations forces in southern Lebanon and calling upon Israe…