The Recession Still Hasn’t Ended According To My Favorite Indicator
Calculated Risk has a post showing the Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators which is my favorite aggregate metric because it is calculated on much more mainstreet data. “Twenty five states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 18 states, and was unchanged in 7.” It is yet another series that shows how different this recession is: in the past the recession end date was always coincident with 25+ states increasing activity (except for 2001 which was delayed by a month or two), and now we are nine months since the recession will most likely be dated and yet still have a way to go. Fortunately February had 21 states increasing with 22 decreasing, which is closer to the real mark, but at best we can say that it is a highly uneven recovery.
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Mikkel–
Thanks for taking the time to respond to so many of my comments since you've been here.
I wonder what the past two years of slump will do to the Census findings.
“The recession has even begun to alter the one Sunbelt reality that virtually everyone has taken as a given since 1970: strong population growth. When seats in Congress are reapportioned after the 2010 Census, it’s likely that Florida, Arizona and Nevada will each gain one congressional seat. But that’s based almost entirely on growth that took place between 2000 and the start of the recession in late 2007.
If you look only at population growth in 2008 and 2009, you find a much different picture. Florida slipped from ninth place in percentage of growth to 32nd, below, among other states, Minnesota, Massachusetts and Kansas. Nevada dropped from first to 17th. If the demographics of the past two years were the basis for reapportionment, it’s likely that neither of these states would be gaining any seats at all.”
http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?con…
Thanks, but it's really the only reason I write so thanks for leaving them. On that note it kind of feels like we're all getting ready to drink the kool aid and join heaven's gate or something…
As Robert Heinlein once wrote, “There will always be survivors.”
See you on the other side!!