Toyota: Not Safe “Enough” for My Loved Ones
When debating an issue, one can always impress the opponent—and oftentimes win the argument—by citing lots of numbers and statistics.
I was thus extremely “impressed” when Rush Limbaugh, in defense of the Iraq war, brought up the following statistics in an August 2006 radio talk show:
Now, the number of highway deaths in this country, 43,443 in 2005, is 40 to 50 times our troop losses in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Well, ten or 20 times at least. And a whole lot more deaths per month than any civil war in Iraq, if there was or is a civil war in Iraq. I don’t know whatever happened to “if it bleeds, it leads,” but there’s a whole lot more bleeding on our highways than in the war zone in Iraq out there, and a whole lot more dying going on in the American highway system than there is in the so-called civil war in Iraq.
A few months later, in January 2007, Limbaugh again made a brilliant comparison of American military deaths in Iraq, this time comparing them to Philadelphia’s murder rate.
Although Mr. Limbaugh did not change my mind on the Iraq war—I have continued to mourn every single American death in that war—he sure “impressed” me with his cavalier use of such statistics. I was so impressed that his words (and numbers) immediately sprang to mind when I read a couple of articles, also loaded with numbers and statistics, about the recent Toyota “sudden unexplained acceleration” problems.
First, in a column strangely titled “Toyotas Are Safe (Enough),” Robert Wright “does the math” and gives us some very comforting statistics:
My back-of-the-envelope calculations (explained in a footnote below) suggest that if you drive one of the Toyotas recalled for acceleration problems and don’t bother to comply with the recall, your chances of being involved in a fatal accident over the next two years because of the unfixed problem are a bit worse than one in a million — 2.8 in a million, to be more exact. Meanwhile, your chances of being killed in a car accident during the next two years just by virtue of being an American are one in 5,244.
So driving one of these suspect Toyotas raises your chances of dying in a car crash over the next two years from .01907 percent (that’s 19 one-thousandths of 1 percent, when rounded off) to .01935 percent (also 19 one-thousandths of one percent).
Wright bravely declares: “I can live with those odds.” And, for good measure, “… I don’t think it’s worth all the bandwidth the Toyota story has consumed over the past couple of months.” He adds, “Maybe we should get used to this kind of scare.”
After “suspecting” that “Toyota’s acceleration problems lie in the software — the ‘electronic throttle control,’” Wright discusses “beta testing,” and enlightens us that it is really a car’s motion that causes death:
Second, the fact that a feature of a car can be fatal isn’t necessarily a persuasive objection to it. One feature that all cars possess and that has been shown to cause death is motion. But we’ve decided that the benefits of automated motion are worth the cost of more than 30,000 American lives each year.
If my quotes have led you to believe that Mr. Wright is a cold-hearted person, I apologize. He isn’t.
After discussing the great trade-offs we have thanks to Toyota-like technology [“After all, high-speed motion will also save some lives (e.g. those of ambulance-driven heart-attack victims) and improve the quality of life in various ways. Life is full of trade-offs, and sometimes trade-offs involve death.”], including great mileage, Wright shows his more compassionate side:
Besides, good mileage means dollars saved, and dollars can be translated into human welfare. I could take the gas money I save via electronic throttle control and send it to Africa and save several lives.
Wright even manages to connect our “irrational worries” about the Toyota problem to terrorism and patriotism:
But it worries me that this Toyota thing worries us so much. We live in a world where responding irrationally to risk (say, the risk of a terrorist attack) can lead us to make mistakes (say, invading Iraq). So the Toyota story is a kind of test of our terrorism-fighting capacity — our ability to keep our wits about us when things seem spooky.
He concludes, “So go out today and buy a Toyota. It’s the patriotic thing to do.”
For those who, as Wright says, are still worried too much about “this Toyota thing,” another expert gives us some additional comforting data.
In a Los Angeles Times opinion piece titled, “Toyota hysteria. Reaction to its cars’ safety records is way over the top,” Michael Fumento, writes:
Sudden acceleration in Toyotas over the last decade has been linked with — which doesn’t mean “caused” — 52 deaths, according to NHTSA. It was just 19 before the current publicity. A Los Angeles Times investigation brought it up to 56, including those culled from lawsuits. Whatever the count and cause, that’s too many. But it’s also out of 20 million Toyotas sold, and out of the 420,000 Americans NHTSA says died in motor vehicle accidents that decade.
We should also take comfort in the fact that “although Toyota had almost 17% of total U.S. car sales in 2008, it accounted for merely 8% of total claims for deaths and injuries in the first quarter of that year, according to NHTSA.” And, “…while Toyota was third in U.S. car sales from 2001 through 2010, it was 17th in NHTSA complaints. Thus, even if every sudden-acceleration complaint proved valid, Toyotas are among the safest cars made.”
At this point I am very tempted to tell Mr. Fumento, “Tell that to the families of those who have been killed by the sudden acceleration problem in Toyotas”—but I won’t.
According to Fumento, we should also consider mitigating circumstances such as:
• Audi suffered similar sudden-acceleration “hysteria’ two decades ago.
• Toyota is the world’s second-largest producer… Despite getting bad press last year, it came out as far and away the top-quality automaker, according to Consumer Reports’ 2010 reader survey.
• Toyota directly and indirectly employs about 200,000 Americans, and directly invests more than $18 billion in this country every year.
And, of course, we should not forget that “… vehicle defects are just a tiny, tiny part of what leads to crashes, and “Whether it’s … defect or a child darting into the road, most crashes occur because drivers don’t leave an adequate safety margin.”
Finally, the inevitable (irrelevant) Limbaugh-like statistic:
“One hundred people are . . . killed every day, and it has nothing to do with technology, recent or otherwise,” says [Leonard Evans, author of the book "Traffic Safety"] “We can cut that number by half by concentrating on driver attitudes.”
I have two Toyotas. I love my Toyotas.
But, I also have family members whom I love even more. Loved ones who trust me to safely transport them to their destinations, whether it be school around the corner or for a vacation across country.
Messrs. Wright and Fumento, please don’t try to compare the 43,000 or more people killed in car accidents each year to those “very few” who have died as a result of a potential fatal flaw in the Toyota cars. Each one of those 43,000 fatalities occurred under different circumstances, often as a result of driver error or negligence.
Those 52 or more Toyota deaths to-date were all—everyone of them—probably caused by the same known or suspected—and probably preventable—electronic or mechanical problem. The drivers, tragically, had absolutely nothing to do with the cause of the accident.
Some statisticians tell us that in the United States, an average of 80 people are killed by lightning each year. That is quite a bit more than those who, so far, have been killed in Toyota sudden acceleration accidents. Perhaps we should be very thankful for another to-Toyota-favorable statistic.
No, Mr. Wright, my Toyotas, at this moment, are not “safe enough” for me and my loved ones. They will not be until Toyota admits, finds and fixes the problem.
And, Mr. Fumento, this is not “hysteria,” these are real concerns an American who owns two Toyotas has, concerns shared by millions other Americans.
Share This
Related Posts
-
Big Banks Now A Branch Of Government: Selig Cartwright, Goldman Sachs Washroom Attendant, Learns The Truth
Posted on Jun 6, 2013
-
The Saddest Part of Memorial Day
Posted on May 27, 2013
-
This Memorial Day, Let Us Honor and also Resolve
Posted on May 25, 2013
-
Having a Bad Day?
Posted on May 15, 2013
Hey Dorian -
Now that I have 'come out of the closet' (unbelievably bad pun, I know), I wanted to give you a quick update on Vicki.
She is doing very well, having returned both to school and is working a full-time job. She has also moved out to her own apartment last week with her dog and cat, and is loving being independent again, while still only being 15 miles away from us.
She is admittedly feeling some pain and discomfort from all the new activity, but it seems to be the good kind, getting unused muscles back into shape, rather than the bad kind, at least for now. She and her doctor are keeping a close eye on her hip, obviously.
She had to push her pin removal surgery off until this Christmas due to school considerations, but it all works out for the best, giving her a 6-month recovery period now between the surgery and the start of her sonography training program.
Good to be able to keep you abreast again of developments, and as always I appreciate your support for her. She is aware of all the TMV team's support, and it really makes her feel good.
AustinRoth
If I could give this more than one “like”, I sure would. Howdy AR — missed you! (even though you were apparently here.)
Dorian, I had a conversation with Dear Husband along very similar lines the other day. We're traveling next week, and DH wondered if I wanted to rent a Rav4 (my usual rental). I said no, I didn't think so, cuz I didn't know whether the rentals had been 'fixed'.
He gave me statistics and reminded me that the hype is being badly overplayed.
And he's right. I know he is. AND I love Toyotas. My first car was a Toyota — best vehicle I ever owned (prior to my current Nissan).
Nevertheless, we're renting a Ford this time around. Go figure.
I'm really sad for Toyota. I hope they can get their ship turned around. But til then…
Hey there, AR.
Welcome back—as your “old self”
Thanks for the news about your daughter. We continue to wish her well. Will coment more later, but curious about your “screen name” and avatar. I always found it (and some of the comments) curious.
Care to offer some insight?
Talk to you later
Dorian
Thans for the comments, Polimom and wishing you a safe trip. I think you made the right decision on renting a Ford. It is worth it, just the peace of mind, if for nothing else.
Curious about your comment “He gave me statistics and reminded me that the hype is being badly overplayed.”
Dorian
Dorian -
I would think the avatar was the obvious one. An actor, in makeup, as someone he is not, and not recognizable. And it had a secondary purpose as well.
As for the screen name, that was also as I alluded to part of the ironic joke on myself, taking pleasure in my own misfortune (having to leave behind my AustinRoth name at TMV) by still nonetheless being brought back from the “dead” by Dr. Frank N. Furter, my avatar.
I do have a rather warped sense of humor, as you can see!
Had me fooled, AR. Yes, welcome back indeed.
I think that Toyota needs to do whatever it has to to fix the problem, but that said I don't think it's worth changing your behavior over. Are you not going to drive your Toyotas, Dorian? And if so what will you do instead? I can see it playing some factor (amongst many) in deciding what car to rent or buy going forward, but actually my primary concern is what they knew and when they knew it. A coverup to me would be worse than the crime.
I would also like to have a rundown of how many fatalities are caused by known flaws in all the different cars.
In any case I have an entirely different outlook in life because I feel that we greatly overestimate our ability to control outcomes. In my mind people greatly overweight the value of outcomes that they feel are controllable because it gives them a sense of security in their own lives. However in reality it is nearly impossible to do everything you need to to manage risk across all the areas of life, and have any time to actually live. Many explanations for bad outcomes seem so clear cut and preventable, but that's because it's using post hoc reasoning to construct a narrative and ignore the surrounding noise.
So yeah I think that Toyota should strive to fix it, but there is also a lot greater chance of getting into an accident because you haven't maintained it perfectly, get distracted, or a drunk or tired driver plows right into you without warning (which is how the vast majority of people I know that have been killed in cars have gone out). That's why I don't worry in one.
1. “I don't think it's worth changing your behavior over.”
We'll have to wait until this ends to learn if this was another popular scare, or if this involved getting too heady with electronic gadgetry. (Imagine if it involved X-by-wire with the 42-volt initiative of a few years ago.)
2. Dorian: Prepare for new thread — F-35 sticker shock.
Thank you so very much Polimom, Dorain and tidbits. It is nice to know I had not alienated everyone before.
AR,
Whatever happened to personal responsibility & respect for the rules? Or are those just slogans conservatives use to beat up other people…
IOKIYAR
I haven't seen anyone comment about it, but Fumento is well-known for similar writing before, debunking scares, typically from a conservative point of view when one can be associated with a “stance” on the scare subject. (Leftists wanted his book, “The Myth of Heterosexual AIDS,” debunking the scare several years ago that AIDS would become a plague wiping out everybody by the 1980s or 1990s, banned from bookstores or having signs placed next to it, “This book is WRONG!”) He wrote other things like the book, “The Fat of the Land,” about obesity. He also got in trouble for not disclosing ties at one time.
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan…
(in Fumento's “defense” — attacking the writer who “outed” him)
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=12150
Your AR persona wasn't quite so mellow; the warped angle seems to work better for you. I was wondering why you weren't making any “cameo” comments anymore. But either way, it's good to have you, um, back/here.
AR, actually I said “curious,” not strange. It had to do initially when you used your new avatar with something you said that kind of related to the person in your avatar. Will try to think of it. Nothing to worry about, though.
“I'm really sad for Toyota. I hope they can get their ship turned around. But til then…”
Me too, Polimom. They've had a stellar safety record until recently. This company set the bar for American manufacturers. They've hit a bad patch. I hope they get over it.
Let me run something by you about this, that's been itching at my brain…..
All car companies have had their share of recalls, safety issues, and the like. However, I don't remember a company being thrown under the steamroller as is the case now with Toyota.
Would this have something to do with them being a non-union employer of hundreds of thousands of Americans? In the present political climate, it would not be shocking if it were for that very reason. Something tells me that if the same thing were to happen at GM, the union-paid-for Congressional majority would not be as animate about its demise.
Of course…. I could be wrong. If Toyota sat on information knowing full well about the defect and did nothing, then they should fry. But if this is simply a non-union company witch hunt, I'd be a bit ticked off.
Mikkel:
I agree that there are enough risks in life and that it is hard to manage risk, as a lot of it is beyond our control.
However, in the Toyota case, a problem that has been known for years, it is an unnecessary, irresponsible, additive risk (additive to so many risks we already can't control) that could have been avoided (by early corrective action by Toyota) and one that some of us can now try to mitigate, e.g. by driving out Toyotas as little as possible, not using them for long trips, renting cars, not transporting our loved ones (especially our young ones) in them, etc. etc.
As to
, I believe both the authors addressed that, and I maintained that it is comparing apples to oranges, but that is just one opinion.
Thanks
Welcome back, AR! We missed ya.
And yes, some of your comments made me wax for the old Austin, which should have tipped me off.
I did recognize the Frank N. Furter avatar, though, since I used to throw toast at the screen with the best of them at the Rocky Horror Picture Show way back when.
You had me fooled as well!
Well like I said, obviously Toyota should fix it. I understand the additive concern, I'm just saying that in the scheme of things it is so infinitesimally small that I can't understand why it would affect behavior noticeably. The additive risk of staying up 30 minutes past my bedtime to watch a show I want to watch or having a disagreement before getting into the car is larger (well back when I had to commute, which I don't now in part because it was so draining). I'm just saying that I think the fixation on external additive effects is unwise.
I have no desire to ever drive another Toyota. As for feeling sorry for a company that uses deceit as a drug to poison the mind of consumers, I think not. In all my life, I have never seen a company with such an air of arrogance. They lied and deceived the public while people were dying, and they had not one minutes remorse. Someone should go to prison for this horrendous, deadly, escapade.
Oh I always want to point out that I think reaction like this sometimes makes things worse off. Because companies know that they will get killed by an irrational image hit, they have incentive to sweep real problems under the rug and hope they're not large enough to be made public. If they could be more open about major but uncommon problems, then they would get more data to work with and could start work on the problem sooner.
It is no longer the problem itself. As is so often the case, it is the cover-up. But in this case, the cover-up has led to unnecessary deaths.
Toyota has gone to extremes, illegally so it is now fairly obvious, to hide known severe safety problems. This does not appear to be the actions of a rogue executive or two, but rather a strategic decision at the highest levels to protect the brand instead of protecting consumers.
I have never been an anti-business poster, and indeed have often been accused of being heartlessly pro-business here at TMV, but in this case, in my mind, criminal activities have almost certainly occurred, and if that is indeed proven true, then Toyota executives deserve to go to jail, and Toyota as a company deserves all the billions of dollars of losses and lawsuit awards and settlements that will be forthcoming.
Final point. This issue of hiding of data is not a US-centered problem. It is now clear that it is happening in every market worldwide that Toyota sells cars.
DQ – who ever said I have respect for the rules?
And anyway, a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. Ralph Waldo Emerson
“in my mind, criminal activities have almost certainly occurred, and if that is indeed proven true, then Toyota executives deserve to go to jail”
Then hopefully they will. I can just understand why they made that decision and feel our culture has a part in it, which doesn't absolve them of responsibility or guilt of course.
Sorry mikkel, but what an utter load of crap.
In the first place, you are saying that fear of being sued in the US courts is justification for lying to the courts, withholding subpoenaed information, and hiding life-threatening safety defects.
And secondly, as I said, this is NOT a US problem. It is coming out they have been doing the same in Europe, Asia and South America.
Uh first of all “our culture” doesn't mean the US. I meant more generally. OK I should have said human's propensity for irrationality when it comes to this sort of stuff.
Secondly understanding does not mean condoning, it means seeing their reasoning. What they did was wrong obviously and they should be held to account. This goes to something I never understand…how come when you say that you empathize, i.e. put yourself in someone else's shoes, look at it from their perspective and try to understand motives, that 99% of the time you're jumped on for saying you agree with the actions. Ironically that's something I'll never be able to understand.
I'm just saying that people shouldn't freak out about this stuff, which is a multi-billion dollar hit, then turn around and demonize the people that made the decision because they were afraid of the hit. Because you know what? Businesses will keep pulling this crap because they get away with it 9 times out of 10 and it's better for them to roll the dice.
Because some things are not worthy of empathizing with or seeing from their perspective.
To use extreme examples (as they make the point clearly), do you empathize with Stalin, Pol Pot, and Mao and their genocides to achieve purity? How about with Charles Taylor and his decision to hack the limbs off children in Liberia as part of his war efforts? Can you put yourself in their shoes?
Putting people's life at unnecessary risk of severe injury and death by deception to maintain corporate profit levels is about as unethical and illegal an activity business can engage in, and is closely related to my examples.
I will not even say we agree to disagree. I will flat out say you are wrong, and if you think about it for a while, you should realize that.
Has anyone but me noticed that right after it became clear that the Toyota problem was going to be enormous, there were a whole slew of recalls by other manufacturers? I kept seeing them hit the news and then roll right off the front page.
I think they saw the writing on the public-anger wall, and decided to clear the decks while everybody was looking the other way. Not a chance do I think the timing was coincidental.
GM, for instance: Last April, they recalled 1.5 million vehicles. Ten days ago, they recalled another 1.3 million. Nobody thinks this looks a tad odd?
The numbers are not all that important. The fact that they hid the information knowing it would kill people and then bragged about their deal with our government it is the problem. We know of a handful of problems….
The real question is…
What don't we know about their cars?
Polimom – I don;t think we are seeing any increase in recalls. They happen all the time for all manufacturers.
And the Toyota problem is not a recall issue, it is a cover-up issue, IMHO.
JD – your last sentence, Toyota sat on information knowing full well about the defect and did nothing is the problem. Recalls happen all the time.
Statistics are relevant here because *all cars have flaws*. They haven't yet invented the perfect, 100% glitch free car.
The concern here is that people will become paranoid about software in their cars, and as a result they will avoid electronically controlled safety devices like anti-lock brakes, stability control, or even air bags.
If this happens, then the roads will become even more dangerous than they were before the hysteria.
Car companies don't sell the safest car possible, and they never will. The safest car possible would cost $100,000, have horrible handling, and not fit in your garage.
People compromise safety for money and convenience all the time. This compromise is called “living your life”. When making these compromises, we just want to have some ballpark idea of the dangers involved. If it's a “struck by lightning” type risk, as it is here, than it's not worth raising a stink over.
You really want to make the roads safer – hold Congressional hearings about drunk driving, road rage, or simple speeding. Toyota is not the problem.