Fate Of Senate Immigration Plan Will Define The GOP

When talk that immigration reform might come up in 2006 began to hit the news media, it said that some key Republicans had planned to raise it as a 2006 “wedge issue” that would put the Democrats on the spot.

And it has proven to be a wedge issue: except it has “wedged” the Republican party itself. On immigration reform, the GOP now resembles the classic good cop (Senate version) bad cop (House version) except in this case it isn’t as if the two cops are working together. As the Christian Science Monitor notes, now comes the hard part:

As hard as it was in the Senate to pull together a winning coalition on immigration reform, getting to “yes” with the House – in a form that can again pass both bodies – will be even tougher.

But it’s not impossible. Even before the Senate completed work on its immigration bill Thursday, House Republicans were signaling an openness to compromise, as long as the final legislation maintains a focus on border security.

In other words, it still is possible that in the end the not-so-nice-to-watch lawmaking process could triumph and some kind of a bill that all sides can live with will emerge. But don’t hold your breath (yet):

On some fronts, the way forward is obvious. Both the House and Senate bills include measures to improve border security. The House bill proposes building 700 miles of fence along the border with Mexico; the Senate bill, 370 miles.

But the guest-worker program and a path to citizenship for millions of people in the US illegally are sticking points for many House Republicans. Their position is that any form of amnesty is unacceptable.

“We shouldn’t be selling American citizenship,” Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R) of Wisconsin said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “What the Senate is doing is it is providing illegal immigrants benefits that we don’t give to legal immigrants, and that’s dead wrong.”

Moreover, House leaders say that unless a compromise plan has the support of most House Republicans, it will not be allowed to come to a vote – even if the members of the conference committee agree on a compromise.

“The Speaker will not bring a conference report on immigration to the floor unless it has the support of a majority of the majority,” says Ron Bonjean, spokesman for Speaker Dennis Hastert.

Interestingly, the Monitor reports that moderate lawmakers may hold the key to whether a compromise bill emerges before the elections:

Meanwhile, the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group of moderate Republicans in the House and Senate, is offering to help broker a deal. Last weekend, Rep. Michael Castle (R) of Delaware and Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona, both Main Street members, opened discussions on the bill.

Senate conservatives, however, are urging their House colleagues to hold the line against amnesty and for border protection.

So it comes down to listening to the party’s base. Many conservatives oppose anything that resembles an “amnesty,” a dirty word to many who point to Ronald Reagan’s 1986 landmark amnesty which legalized a huge number of immigrants, but was also marked by spotty border beef-ups and hardly any employers’ sanctions enforcement.

What’s next? A a “defining moment” for the GOP. Will House GOPers compromise so that a bill emerges, no matter what — a bill having some provision to legalize at least some of the immigrants who are here? Or is that simply off the table — which would mean the bill could die for this session. The Monitor notes the dynamics of the issue within the two parties:

Many GOP lawmakers worry that voters in November will punish legislators who back any measure that appears to reward illegal behavior. Rep. Tom Osborne, who ran in the Nebraska Republican primary for governor, lost his bid after an ad campaign criticized his support for in-state tuition for children of illegal immigrants.

More registered Republicans (19 percent) cite immigration as the most important national problem than cite any other issue, according to a Pew Hispanic Center poll this month. Only 6 percent of Democrats cite it as the most important problem.

The phrase “comprehensive bill” (which means the kind of bill President Bush, Senators McCain and Kennedy want, allowing some kind of legalization of residential status for some of the immigrants) has become a term of derision for many hard-line Republicans. Which course will the GOP choose? The hard-line, or the somewhat softer Senate line? White House Press Secretary Tony Snow weighed in:

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow expressed optimism Thursday that common ground can be found.

“It’s pretty clear that members of both houses understand that they pay a heavier political price for failing to act than for acting,” he said. “That’s one thing that I’ve heard from Republicans in both houses.”

That’s called a “hint.” So now the questions become: will voters crack the whip on the GOP for acting or not acting on election day? Which face will the GOP choose? Or, will it adroitly manage to wear both faces?