GOP Looking Vulnerable Now In More House Seats

The trend over the past few months has been clear: the GOP has been looking vulnerable in the House of Representatives in a given number of seats.

But now experts are saying the number of “given” seats that are vulnerable are increasing.

And what about the talk of all the various political and legal tinkering over the years that was supposed to make — in the eyes of some — even the vulnerability of Republicans strictly inside the beltway talk? “Never mind,” might be the response.

In short, the Washington Post reports, the GOP is ailing…and the sagging fortunes disease appears to be spreading:

For months, even in the face of an avalanche of bad news for Republicans, Democratic ambitions for capturing Congress have collided with an electoral map created to protect Republicans from ouster. Despite polls showing rising support for Democrats and scorn for Republicans, analysts have said Democratic hopes for big gains remain remote, because so few seats are in contention.

That appears to be changing.

Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election.

In a Republican primary in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Representative Don Sherwood drew 56 percent of the vote against a little-known challenger, a display of weakness in a race that both parties now see as being in play.

In other words, the Democrats shouldn’t count their fortunes just yet: there are signs that seats are more competitive but much depends on whether the Democrats bungle it themselves (see below). AND:

The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has spent at least $1.9 million in the June 6 special election to replace Representative Randy Cunningham, who was forced out in an ethics investigation, in a California district that should be a cinch for Republicans.

On Friday, President Bush flew to the Congressional districts of two Republicans who had once seemed heading for easy re-election — Thelma Drake in Virginia and Geoff Davis in Kentucky — to help them raise money. A White House adviser said the decision to send Mr. Bush reflected concern about the challenges the first-term incumbents face.

And what do experts say? The signs for the GOP aren’t good:

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which tracks Congressional races, increased the number of Republican seats viewed as competitive on Friday to 36 from 24, said Amy Walter, an analyst there. Democrats seem to be in increasingly good shape to pick up seats in bands of districts across Pennsylvania, Connecticut and New York, as well as districts throughout Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, California and Florida. Democrats need to pick up 15 Republican seats to take control.

“The playing field is certainly expanding,” Ms. Walter said. “Clearly what we are seeing is that the political environment is taking a toll and dragging down Republican incumbents; it’s dragging down their polling numbers. The question is, What will the environment be in November?”

Andrew Kohut, a pollster who is the director of the Pew Research Center, said the public was as unhappy with Congress as at any time in the history of the Pew Poll, and that a third of those polled in his most recent survey said they would use their Congressional vote as an opportunity to vote against Mr. Bush, which is precisely the way Democrats have been trying to frame this election.

Some thoughts:

(1)GOPers who insist there’s nothing going on truly seem to be deluding themselves. Yours truly travels extensively (this is written from a hotel near the CA/Arizona border) and in restaurants, hotels and stores along the way you hear a lot of spontaneous wisecracks or sarcastic comments about the state of affairs. You constantly meet (and know personally as well) independents and Republicans who are vowing to make this year a protest vote — one they will cast no matter what, whether in person or by absentee ballot.

(2)All of these predictions and analyses are snapshots of a given moment, though, and they can change. But one factor that polls don’t look at overall — because it’s more projection than anything else — is what self-inflicted damage well-meaning and dedicated partisans of each party can do to their own party’s fortunates.

GOP conservatives are bitterly split over immigration and several other issues and some threaten to stay home and not vote if they don’t get their way. Democrats seem increasingly split between the centrist DLCers and the party’s more progressive wing that’s making it clear it won’t simply support a Democrat because he or she is A Democrat. Will Democrats (progressives) be going after Democrats (centrists/conservatives) at the polls? Will Republicans (conservatives) be out to weed out other Republicans (other conservatives or the few remaining moderates?)

All of these partisans are dedicated to their respective beliefs and causes. But will they help, or hurt their parties? (And, some would ask, is that what truly matters? Some would say yes; others would say no — that there are loftier goals).

So in 2006 it may boil down to:

Which party can shoot itself in the foot the least?

Right now it looks as if Dick Cheney has handed Republicans his shotgun.

BUT THAT’S JUST OUR VIEW HERE ARE A FEW OTHERS:
–Big Lizards:

The absolute best way to advance the conservative agenda is not to sit out the election, not to vote for some goofy third-party candidate, and certainly not to vote for the Democrats… but to commit right here and now to turn out in November and vote for the Republican, even if you have to hold your nose as you do it…

…The MSM plans to try to depress the Republican vote by depressing the voters. Don’t let them. Just expect a steady diet of worms between now and November and pay them no heed.If things are still this bad in October… then it’ll be time to whip out that crying towel.

–The Democratic Daily (which exercises a bit of laudable caution, as any report warrents):

I wouldn’t attempt to predict what will happen in this November’s elections, but ..for many people making predictions is part of their job. While I take all such predictions with a grain of salt, it is still amusing to watch the trend. Overall the possibility of the Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress is being considered increasingly possible.

–My DD’s Jonathan Singer:

Clearly, we are getting towards the point at which there are enough seats in play for the Democrats to win back the House — and apparently the top opinion-makers inside the Beltway are beginning to take notice. While it is true that simply because these pundits believe the Democrats have a chance at picking up the House does not mean that the Democrats will pick up the House this year, it is certainly good to see that common wisdom no longer dictates that the Democrats are constant losers, because many Americans simply don’t like voting for losers (a fact whose importance cannot be overstated.)

Put another way, if Americans begin to believe that the Democrats are well on the road to victory this fall, two things could end up happening to reinforce this trend. First, more undecided Americans might lean more closely to the Democrats in the desire of siding with the winner. A second and potentially more important consequence of this shift in common wisdom would be depressed GOP turnout across the nation as a significant portion of the party base stays home on election day as they see their cause as futile.

–Americablog’s John Aravosis:

This is why I’m constantly harping against pessimism and telling folks that we can win, we can take the House, and even possibly the Senate. The numbers change. They change every week. When someone tells you we can’t win the House, they mean if the vote were today. But it’s not today. Every week the Republicans are falling further and further behind.

We can take the House, and maybe even the Senate, if we continue to believe and keep reminding the country that the Republican party will destroy America if it remains in power any longer.

–Roger Ailes gives what he calls a “Reality Check” on these reports. Part of it:

But: Stuart Rothenberg, who claims there are 42 Puke seats in play, is currently predicting a Democratic gain of only 8 to 12 seats. That result would weaken Bush more, but keeps the Republicans in control of the House. If the Democrats want to win Congress, they and their supporters have a lot of work to do. November is six months away. And, as recent history informs us, there’s very little the Republicans won’t do to gain or keep power.