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New Poll Driven Lower By Conservatives Leaving Bush
It’s truly getting to the point where writing about “new lows” in polling for President George Bush and the GOP-dominated Congress isn’t getting to be news anymore — but the norm.
And the latest AP-Ipsos poll, AP Political Writer Ron Fornier writes, illustrates why Republicans fear “an Election Day massacre”:
Six months out, the intensity of opposition to Bush and Congress has risen sharply, along with the percentage of Americans who believe the nation is on the wrong track.The AP-Ipsos poll also suggests that Democratic voters are far more motivated than Republicans. Elections in the middle of a president’s term traditionally favor the party whose core supporters are the most energized.
The specific numbers are grim:
–Just 33 percent of the public approves of Bush’s job performance, the lowest of his presidency. That compares with 36 percent approval in early April. Forty-five percent of self-described conservatives now disapprove of the president.–Just one-fourth of the public approves of the job Congress is doing, a new low in AP-Ipsos polling and down 5 percentage points since last month. A whopping 65 percent of conservatives disapprove of Congress.
–A majority of Americans say they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control Congress (51 percent to 34 percent). That’s the largest gap recorded by AP-Ipsos since Bush took office. Even 31 percent of conservatives want Republicans out of power.
–The souring of the nation’s mood has accelerated the past three months, with the percentage of people describing the nation on the wrong track rising 12 points to a new high of 73 percent. Six of 10 conservatives say America is headed in the wrong direction.
The AP story goes on to quote various GOP experts and a voter who make it clear that the Republicans are in danger of losing the Congress.
But the bad news doesn’t stop there. Rasmussen Reports (which we have in our blogroll under OTHER VOICES and check each day) has noticed a slight increase in Bush’s numbers…but the site warns that it might not mean much and numbers are not good ones:
Forty-three percent (43%) of Americans Approve of the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove. Those numbers are a couple of points higher than recent readings and it remains to be seen whether this is anything more than statistical noise. (review long-term trends).How relevant is the President in this year’s election? Just 59% of Americans say their opinion of the President is important when considering how they will vote this fall. More Americans trust Democrats in Congress than the President on important issues, but it’s a toss-up when the choice is between Republicans in Congress and Democrats in Congress.
This survey comes on top of our recent release showing that the number of people identifying themselves as Republicans fell to the lowest level recorded since our reports on this topic began 28 months ago.
And there’s more. Political Wire:
In the latest National Journal Political Insiders poll, 55% of GOP insiders predict that high gas prices will hurt their candidates in the midterm elections. Not a single Democratic insider predicted that rates will affect them negatively, but 91% believe the issue will hurt Republicans.
You could dismiss this to political hubris, but there have been so many RECENT negative stories and images coming out of this White House that current behavior and job performance could be the root of the problem. Also: a constant with the Bush administration has been its early decision to govern as if it had a huge majority and concentrate on pleasing its base. That’s a fine stratetgy if you won by huge numbers and everything went perfectly. But it leaves no political safety net when things go awry — as they have.
What do the numbers showing conservative erosion mean? GOPers will face a choice in 2006. If they vote party line to prevent above all the Democrats coming to power then they will have chosen to live with their party’s current power structure. If many of them cast protest votes (or stay home as a protest) and the Democrats take one or more house of Congress it will weaken the power structure and begin to set the stage for new leadership in key Republican party positions as the party revs up for 2008.
In other words: if Republicans want to change their party, they can’t reward it with victories. Are these polls a sign that Republicans may in effect start to clean house? It’s hard to envision polls dropping much further for Bush & Co. But each time we say that the polls drop again. And if they drop again — what next?
Final question: will bringing Fox News’ Tony Snow in and booting out CIA Director Porter Goss help? Wait for the next (new low?) poll.
UPDATE: For a different view be sure to read Ed Morrissey’s post on Party Or Principle.
6 Responses to “New Poll Driven Lower By Conservatives Leaving Bush”
I just love the new graphic for each downward poll. The comments over at Captain Ed’s site are quite interesting as well. They really don’t know what to do. Some say “Vote Republican, even if we’re lost in the wilderness right now because the opposition is so much worse.” Others say, “Stay home because the Republicans are taking conservatives for granted.” I hope they do the latter…
It reminds me of the 80s when the Republicans seemed unconquerable. Some actually proclaimed the Democratic Party as dead. It seems the cycle always turns. The party in power for any length of time loses its way and the vacuum has to be filled.
It’s sad that the opportunity of 911 to bring the country together and solve some of the growing problems that are now becoming critical was squandered. Instead of asking for sacrifices that Americans were prepared at that time to make, the administration, or Carl Rove and Dick Chaney to be precise, used this turning point in American history to try and gain political advantages for the GOP, start a war in Iraq, and move huge amounts of pork to powerful constituencies. The plummeting poll numbers are a sign that these plans are crashing and burning. Sadly the Democrats are hardly offering a compelling alternative. If there was every a time for the formation of a third party I think that it is now.
Mark, I agree with the idea of a third party but there are so many barriers to getting started that it is not going to happen any time soon. I have always wondered if moderates could ban together to form nominating committees that would support moderates in either party. If moderate politicians felt that they did not have to appeal to the extremes of their parties to get nominated maybe we could get some more sane candidates.
What about moderates forming an interest group that rates candidates on the extremism of their views? Then posts the ratings on the internet. If there was a large enough group it might work….
Otherwise, expect more of the same. Today’s candidates have gerrymandered their districts so they do not have to appeal to moderates, and unfortunately most party activists ARE extremists. With rare exceptions, no one represents the moderate middle anymore.
For a third party to succeed it would have to be “populist” in the sense that it appeals to the concerns of the broad center of the population. When you use terms like “moderate” people get confused as they have been conditioned to think that means you stand for nothing. The Republicans have been completely captured by Corporate interests. You’ll notice that all of the explosion in government spending seems to have a common thread. Legislation for things like the prescription drug benefit program have been designed to benefit the insurance and drug industries, major campaign contributors, at least as much if not more than senior citizens. Earmarks produce boondoggles that local citizens do not want or need but enrich developers who then kickback campaign contributions.An immigration policy only an exploiter of cheap third world labor could love.
And the worst I think is the half trillion that has been spent on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, so much it now seems to have been wasted in a “wild west” of “fly by night” defence contractors. All while our troops go without supplies and intelligence that they desperately need.
Here I am a life long conservative Republican talking like a bolshevik But the polls seem to show that I am not alone. I’m so disparate I could even look at the Democrats if they were not such “barking moon bats”.