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Turnout High In Massachuetts ?
Reports are for higher than expected turnout today.
Conflicting reports as to whether this is confined to the Boston area (which would help Coakley) or is even statewide (which would balance things out).
However this could be a good sigh for Coakley.
5 Responses to “Turnout High In Massachuetts ?”
What about the Berkshires and the Seven Sisters? Big counter-GOP turnout, or no-shows due to apathy, dejection, or from viewing the Dems as too far right? Only time will reveal the answer.
While high turnout in the absolute does help Coakley, a higher than average turnout was already baked into the pollster's models. Based on reading over at 538, the math kids are saying it has to get up towards 45% to repudiate the polling models.
Coakley has tanked on intrade in the last couple of hours…now at 13…so if you think you got a line on something others do not, you can make 6 times your bet on Intrade.
Every bit of logic tells me Brown should win.
But this is Massachusetts and I've gotten very cautious about predicting GOP upsets.
Conventional wisdom says a high turnout benefits the Democrats. The only way this is bad for Coakley is if those Democrats who are voting for Brown are far more highly motivated. I don't think this one is over until it's over.
But given the finger pointing and infighting already breaking out in the Democrat camp, I have to wonder if they aren't aware of something from their gotv efforts which makes them pessimistic.
I didn't want to say anything earlier, Pat Coakley, but look at the title of this thread.
[grin]