Coakley Will Lose to Brown, but What Will Become of Health-Care Reform?
In Massachusetts… oh, Massachusetts… what are you doing? Seriously.
Republican Scott Brown may be up by as many as nine points over Democrat Martha Coakley. Actually, he may even have a double-digit lead.
Polling expert Nate Silver has Brown as a 3:1 favourite.
We’ll know by this evening, but it’s pretty clear what’s going on: Brown has surged ahead over the last week, further and further ahead, in poll after poll. And he will win today.
Even if the race is closer than the polls would seem to suggest, even if, if Coakley internals are to be believed, there’s been some last-minute tightening, I just don’t see how the Democrats can pull this off.
There would have to be overwhelming Democratic turnout, and a major shift to Coakley (among Democrats, who aren’t supporting her at the level Republicans are supporting Brown), and that just ain’t happening. I’m getting reports of Democratic enthusiasm on the ground, enough to be optimistic, but it likely won’t be enough.
Reality may bite, but there it is.
Yesterday, citing Paul Krugman, I suggested that Brown is ahead of Coakley, and would likely win, because the Republican “outrage machine” is in full swing, because, I wrote, “Republicans are outraged and pissed off and unified behind smears, and because Democrats are deeply divided and somewhat apathetic, and because the media are promulgating the Republican narrative and declaring it to be the truth.”
Andrew Sullivan eloquently, and correctly, made a similar point on a larger scale:
I can see no alternative scenario but a huge — staggeringly huge — victory for the FNC/RNC machine tomorrow. They crafted a strategy of total oppositionism to anything Obama proposed a year ago. Remember they gave him zero votes on even the stimulus in his first weeks. They saw health insurance reform as Obama’s Waterloo, and, thanks in part to the dithering Democrats, they beat him on that hill. They have successfully channeled all the rage at the massive debt and recession the president inherited on Obama after just one year. If they can do that already, against the massive evidence against them, they have the power to wield populism to destroy any attempt by government to address any actual problems.
This is a nihilist moment, built from a nihilist strategy in order to regain power… to do nothing but wage war against enemies at home and abroad.
Andrew thinks that “serious health insurance reform is over for yet another generation,” that “the bill is dead.” I’m not so sure, but it will indeed be a challenge for Congressional Democrats to do what needs to be done. I wouldn’t describe myself as optimistic, but I think Jonathan Chait, rebutting Andrew, is right that:
There are perfectly viable ways to pass a major health care reform without taking another vote in the Senate. The easiest is just to have the House pass the Senate bill, and promise to use a reconciliation bill, which requires just a majority vote, to smooth out any changes. It’s very, very doable. It’s also in the interest of the Democrats in Congress. They already cast a vote, might as well reap the benefit of having an accomplishment.
The only question is whether they can keep their heads.
That’s the big question, and I’m not sure they can. For more on this, check out more from Jon and his health-care-expert colleague Jonathan Cohn. See also Ezra Klein:
Scott Brown’s victory would change the math in the Senate but not the fundamentals of the bill. It’s true, of course, that the addition of a 41st Republican means that the GOP can thwart the will of the 59 Democrats in the majority and successfully filibuster legislation. But this particular bill has already passed the Senate. It can be signed into law without ever seeing Harry Reid’s desk again.
Democrats will need to keep their heads, put aside their differences, and pass the bill, the Senate bill as is — and then seek improvements, which House Democrats seek, through reconciliation.
Will they do it? We’ll see, but one thing’s for sure: The alternative, letting the bill die, is not an option. It would be political suicide for the Democrats, and they can ill-afford to let this opportunity to pass historic legislation, which would boost their fortunes in the long run, slip away.
(Cross-posted from The Reaction.)
15 Responses to “Coakley Will Lose to Brown, but What Will Become of Health-Care Reform?”
Regardless of who wins in MA, the democrats will need to come out swinging. There is no other option.
This article is the most prominent example of GOP projectionism I've seen in a good long while. Literally, the truth can be found by switching the terms “democrats” with “republican” throughout.
Wow…just “wow”..
There's no reason for libs to keep struggling, and failing, with delusion.
The Dems tried too much, and broke down in the end. They had the power to do whatever they wanted, and still failed. It was at their own hands. At least some of them began paying attention to the maintream rather than far-left fringe and related camp followers (like Sullivan, who remains delusional and worse, for example).
The Dems have to pass some legislation with “health care” on it, or yes, they are even worse failures. It's going to be tough, because if there's remnant extremism in the House (which Pelosi is babbling about), it risks loss of feebly-secured votes in the Senate. (There's only so much bribery that Congress can do to get reluctant members to accept garbage legislation that properly puts their re-election at risk.)
The best thing to do is yes, pass the Senate bill or something like it for now, and then stop operating in HUA mode (a large reason the public is disenchanted with the Dems) and agree on reasonable steps to take next. Reaching that agreement, and associated compromise between the militants in the House and the calmer heads in the Senate, is the correct meaning of “reconciliation” to use here. What obviously is not legitimate is to use budget reconciliation procedure to force poor quality legislation through Congress, an unethical tactic characteristic of politicians and supporters who have not learned their lesson about overreach this year, nor corrected their misbehavior.
There are both ardent left-wing ideologues and pathetic lobbyist prostitutes in the house, that is the problem.
There will always be some little cowards who will think “B-b-b-but if we cave and do what the media and the right-wing psychopaths tell us to do perhaps we will be rewarded for showing prudence and respecting the people who hate us.”
Basically, the pathetic little morons think they can deflect the problems by giving up the bill – even though the election is not a referendum on the bill or Obama. It's a shame said morons could drag their party down with them in their desire to appease a bunch of people who either hate them anyway or are grasping for reasons to stop the bill and only see the weak dems as the soft underbelly of Obama's presidency.
The senate bill should be passed, reconciliation should happen. There is literally no intelligent argument against that solution no matter who wins.
” the democrats will need to come out swinging”
Sinking from shooting holes in the bottom of your boat — the conclusion? Too timid — use a bigger gun.
Advice for DLS: Read for comprehension, not reaction. The D's caving has always been a problem, and Axel is exactly right, they are fools for thinking they will ever be rewarded for it. Until the GOP is no longer informed and run by bigots, corporate pawns (yes I know they are on the left as well – just not as deeply entrenched) and history deprived ideologues, any and all bi-partisan overtures will continue to be met with the same obstruction and disingenuous BS we've been seeing for many, many years.
To answer the question posed in the title …..Hopefully “we” will get real reform. Including tort reform, portability and a clause that has our “elected reps” receiving the same “programs” we get, nothing more, nothing less.
“Remember they gave him zero votes on even the stimulus in his first weeks.”
You know, I don't remember zero votes from Republicans on the stimulus… and neither does anyone else with a half-decent memory.
But if your memory is failing, I'll help you with links.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29179041/
“The Senate approved the measure 60-38 with three GOP moderates providing crucial support…”
Well, I guess research is hard, figuring out where google is and everything; so going with a memory without research is the only rational way to write… or something
Dems are rewriting history already and it hasn't even been a year. Nice correction
I would like to strongly encourage Progressives to come out swinging on health care and continue to ram ObamaCare down the throats of the American people. Keep up the good work!
Well let's get busy on that revisionist history debunking then. The GOP has largely been misunderstood all these years. They are the party of environmentatlists, they are party who was most active in pursuing civil rights, they are the party who has been most represented in protesting bogus wars, they are the party which has shown the greatest concern for regulation and protection of American citizens, they are the party least affiliated with unfettered capitalism. They are the party most tuned in to womens rights, they are the party most concerned about American citizens becoming disenfranchised from their civil rights, they are the party most grounded in science and education, they are the party who traditionally makes sure the place is in good shape before leaving office, etc. I could go on and on and on.
“Read for comprehension, not reaction.”
Oh, the irony. You're noted for that. (Can't tell if it's also due to projection.)
Oh those facts. They are such stubborn things.
Yep. Now if libs and Dems will only face those facts, rather than insist on denial and dishonesty.
I think this is a really good strategy for the Republicans. Polls show such overwhelming support for the present health care bill. Oh it’s the Democratic Party you are talking about. Sorry.
The alternative, letting the bill die, is not an option. It would be political suicide for the Democrats, and they can ill-afford to let this opportunity to pass historic legislation, which would boost their fortunes in the long run, slip away.