2010 Threats
Jan 15th, 2010 | 11 responses
Guest post by Jared Stancombe
Jared Stancombe, a 2009 graduate of Indiana University, is currently an analyst for a U.S. government agency responsible for national security. He is also in the officer selection process for the U.S. Marine Corps. He lives in Washington, D.C.
With the turn of the decade into 2010, many Americans are hopeful with respect to what the new decade will bring. However, those within the national security and defense apparata are looking to resolve the current conflicts and crises while forecasting those to come. Here is my take on what may happen in 2010:
Iraq: U.S. troops will begin leaving Iraq permanently, leaving behind only military elements that can directly support the expansion of national security forces. However, civilian elements may remain to assist the government in building the economy and public institutions. In December 2009, there were no combat-related deaths in the entire country. Friends who have served in Iraq or who are currently in Iraq are completely confident that the current Iraqi regime can exist independently of further U.S. occupation. With the focus currently on Afghanistan, al Qaeda and other foreign fighter groups who were responsible for most of the “post-war” fighting have moved into the mountains of Pakistan and into other unstable parts of the world, such as Yemen. What instability that remains in Iraq is mostly internal, despite recent bombings.
Yemen: Without immediate international assistance, Yemen could become another Somalia, with terrorists freely operating within its borders. The U.S. and its allies should devote substantial defense, development, and economic assistance to the Yemeni regime before it is too late. With the Christmas 2009 airline terrorist attack, U.S. sights have also been turned on Yemen. The U.S. will never send troops to Yemen, yet there could be air strikes from U.S. Predator drones and naval aircraft or AC-130 strikes on suspected terrorist encampments.
Afghanistan: Afghanistan may turn for the better or for the worse. Is 30,000 troops enough? What strategy will actually be adapted? Will U.S. forces pull out of the rural areas to protect the urban ones? 2010 is critical for success or failure in Afghanistan, and the unstable regime may be going through a phase which could render President Hamid Karzai powerless due to rampant corruption. Afghans may have had enough with Karzai and may seek to undermine him, to the detriment of U.S. efforts in the country.
Without a stable and sustainable political solution, military counterinsurgency efforts may prove futile. Afghanistan may have no solution and resources may be once again redirected, as they were for the Iraq War, if another threat from another failed state succeeds with a terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
The impending spring offensive by the Taliban once weather conditions improve could determine how much momentum ISAF forces truly have. U.S. casualties in the spring and summer could reach record levels as ISAF forces attempt to violently and forcefully squash the insurgency in the southern and eastern regions of the country.
Pakistan: 2010 is also critical for Pakistan, as its military bravely fights the Taliban in devastating combat. However, can the Pakistani military succeed? Will Pakistan remain stable? The stability of Pakistan is critical to U.S. success in Afghanistan, and an emergency situation may develop that requires U.S. action. Air strikes from Predator drones may rise as Pakistani intelligence works better with the CIA and Air Force on targeting high-ranking Taliban and al Qaeda officials. However, Pakistan may become the focus of the war against al-Qaeda and diplomatic efforts may be taken to place U.S. special operations forces in the country in a covert capacity.
United States: Domestic terrorism will quite possibly increase, with right-wing extremists feeling disenfranchised with an African-American president and Democratic majorities in Congress. We may see more attacks against government workers and interests. With the conservative media stating that an apocalypse is imminent, fearful and dangerous people may increasingly act out violently, in particular against government buildings and interests.
11 Responses to “2010 Threats”
Domestic Terrorism….uh…what “more attacks”?
Last Domestic terrorism I recount was the Tim McVeigh and Terry Nichols Oklahoma City bombing of the Federal Building.
You might say the old guy that shot a security guard at the D.C. Holocaust Museum was a terror act, but I really see it as just some gun nut gone wacko, not really organized terrorism at all.
Have I missed something?
1. Foreign Affairs had an article some time ago that mentioned three other nations that would affect us greatly if any of these three had a revolution:
a) Russia;
b) Saudi Arabia;
c) Mexico.
2. I've often said, too, that the West may be too concerned about Saudi Arabia (because of its oil supplier role as well as its substantial Middle Eastern political role) and neglect Egypt; consider the effect on us (not to mention Israel) if Egypt were to fall to the terrorists.
3. While I oppose the anti-human, anti-progressive nature of the post-1960s Left and am optimistic about the future of humanity, also unlike them I am realistic about the world, and that includes the world outside the West and other modern nations. Much of the world, where there is failure or malevolence, is turning into a perverse version of Developed and Lesser Developed Nations, which is instead consists of
rogue nations
http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/dea…
http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/index.html
etc.
and failed states.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/06/2…
http://www.fundforpeace.org/web/index.php?optio…
He's just echoing something that I first heard from my somewhat-liberal brother. There's been predictions running all the way back to Obama's campaign that lots of right-wing kooks, with encouragement from commentators (espeically the eeeeevil Beck) would start targeting all government buildings and workers and blacks and Muslims and, uh, anything left-wing-ish.
Yep, there's gonna be slew of them in 2009 — I mean, 2010.
Paranoia, accompanying delusion, dishonesty, fear, loathing, and hatred, is not surprising to me.
Was Bush (and was Cheney) going to be blamed along with Limbaugh and Beck for any attacks?
Well, we can certainly see here that the right-wing contributors are in fine hatred form tonight.
Tom McVeigh and Terry Nichols were registered republicans.
Oops. The truth hurts, it seems.
Plenty of us know about the OKC bombing, as well as the Ku Klux Klan (still our best known terrorist group), both of which are classified as “right-wing.” You're making no valid point, Father Time.
Their actually were a few around the election both before and after but they either got caught before hand or in a few cases looked more like domestic violence while screaming “liberals” than anything else. I don't think it will ramp back up unless 2010 somehow goes bad for the GOP and even then I think it will be a short burst and then over again. I don't think anything will rise to the level of OKC but killing people in the hopes of making a political point and garner media attention is the definition of terrorism and the US has its fair share domestically, technically its even the threat of violence by that definition we have always kind of been a terrorist country on all sides though lol. If you count destruction of property to make a political point like the US gov does as shown by how they prosecuted the hummer burning “eco-terrorists” than the modern left has them as well.
Yes I did.
Eco-terrorists and radical “activists” were in the news quite a bit last year. I think everybody is getting sick of the selective federal rescues, pork, and corporate welfare, but both left and right believe it's the other side's fault. The name and blame game seems to be just another way to play the violin while the country burns. I can understand the frustrations, but I can't accept the violence. However, it may begin to escalate soon, because the country is getting more divided, and, I believe, poorer overall, and that leads to frustration and unrest.
Peace brother: we need it.
Can I get an Amen for ProfElwood- ” The name and blame game seems to be just another way to play the violin while the country burns.” The left and right will continue to fight each other, even as they drag us over a cliff. The challenge today is to find moderate candidates in a hyper partisan world.
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