Friday, December 18, 2009 Tea Party Poised to Defeat Reps and Dems! (Or, Perhaps not)
The following is a cross-post from PoliBlog:
There has been a meme in some rightward circles of late that the Tea Party movement is poised to burst onto the scene as a real third force in American politics as the result of some recent polling.
First, there was a Rasmussen poll a few weeks back that reported Tea Party Tops GOP on Three-Way Generic Ballot:
In a three-way Generic Ballot test, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Democrats attracting 36% of the vote. The Tea Party candidate picks up 23%, and Republicans finish third at 18%. Another 22% are undecided.
(See Dave Weigel on that one).
Now, NewsMax is touting some numbers from a new NBC/WSJ poll:
According to the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Wednesday, 41 percent of likely voters now have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party Patriots. That compares to a 35 percent favorable rating for Democrats and 28 percent for the GOP.
The stunning conclusion: If the Tea Party Patriots were a political party – it is increasingly shifting its emphasis in a nonpartisan political direction – it would be the most popular party in America.
A stunning conclusion, indeed.
However, “favorability” isn’t the same thing as “electability” (or even popularity)—especially in the absence of an actual party, candidates, or campaign.
Beyond that, if actually look at the poll we find the following:
14a. How much do you know about the Tea Party movement??do you know a great deal about this, a fair
amount, just some, very little, or nothing at all?Know a great deal ……………………… 7
Know a fair amount ……………………. 22
Know just some…………………………. 23
Know very little………………………….. 25
Know nothing at all …………………….. 23
Not sure…………………………………. -
The number of folks in the poll who know “a great deal” or even “a fair amount” sums to 29%, while those knowing “just some” to “nothing at all” sums to 71%. The sum of “very little” to “nothing at all” is 48%. As such, it is pretty clear that we cannot read much of anything into a plurality of respondents having a “positive” (20%) or “somewhat positive” (21%) view of the Tea Party movement.
(And note: I think that a serious third party movement in the US would be both fascinating and healthy for our politics).
6 Responses to “Friday, December 18, 2009 Tea Party Poised to Defeat Reps and Dems! (Or, Perhaps not)”
The Tea Party? The second they get candidates and a platform up there, everyone's going to see how much of a half-baked idea it all is.
Problem 1: The Teabaggers are for now funded by GOP operatives and backers. Would an established party allow their moneys to start flowing to a brand new third party lacking name candidates at local/state levels?
Problem 2: The GOP will be hardest hit by a Tea Party, essentially having it split off from itself. How many Democrats will that new Tea Party attract (I wager very few). It'll be like what happened with Ross Perot's Reform Party, which hit the Republicans harder than Dems and in some respects helped Clinton both times. Do you seriously think the Republicans will let this happen again, or do you think they'll do everything in their power to sabotage their own 'grassroots' program (talk about biting the hands that fed ya…) before it splinters off?
Problem 3: Past Obama's birf certificate, death panels, tax cuts for the rich (which is odd, how many rich people are out there marching with the Baggers?), and Just-Say-No to Socialism, what else are the Teabaggers FOR? Not much else. Not much of an actual broad platform to actually win over undecided voters who, you know, actually look for things to vote for rather than blindly follow a party banner.
If the Tea Party comes to any effort, I expect the existing two parties (esp. the Republicans who will regret spawning it) to shut it down quick. McD's and Burger King hate nothing more than a Taco Bell opening up down the street, after all.
Of the Third Party attempts out there, which are anywhere near viability in your opinion? Is the Reform Party still out there? What about Nader's Greens? There was this Modern Whigs getting talked up on Slate a few days ago, how does that look?
The Tea Party is neither a “The” nor a party. It's not controlled by the Republicans because it's to a large extent a rebellion against Democrats and Republicans. About the only thing that could be consistently said about the various, rather independent, groups around the country is they have a general belief that politicians are owned by specials interests and they have a general desire for fiscal responsibility.
Before you tell everyone about “The Tea Party”, I'd suggest that you actually attend the one in your area. I know enough about them to say conclusively that I know almost nothing about the one in your area, and your post indicates that you don't either.
The Reform Party just cleared a legal hurdle and is prepared to take action in the upcoming 2010 election.
As for the Reform Party taking votes from the R's and D's? I don't buy it. The Reform Party will provide the people with a viable candidate to vote for, not against. The Reform Party will be populist in nature. The political mess America is currently in was created by the liberal/conservative agenda that was primarily financed by corporations for corporations. No matter who won, liberal or conservative, the interests of corporations came first. The goal for the Reform Party is to at all times make decisions and cast votes for the common good of all Americans.
If you're wanting to learn more go to http://www.reformparty.org and freedomfromthepress.net
Steven Thompson, editor
Freedom From The Press and,
founding member and former state chairman for the Reform Party of Washington State
PASS THE WORD
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TeaPartyOne wrote:
The TEA Political PARTY is real people. http://election.dos.state.fl.us/
Then see the Florida Tea Party registered Senator 2010 candidate
http://www.TeaParty.Pro
America celebrates Independence Day, not republican or democrat day. It’s
Time to get real.
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http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/CanLi…
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