John McCain’s Political Tightrope Act

The question: how long can Arizona Senator John McCain continue his political tightrope act?

In 2000 when he ran against George Bush, McCain seemingly had a lot going for him: great media coverage, a bestselling book, enthusiastic young crowds, charisma that came across on the tube, campaign workers who truly loved him and would walk on broken glass for him. However, he lacked one teeny-weenie thing: the backing of the Republican establishment.

The campaign quickly became the GOP establishment against the “maverick” McCain who was squelched by a variety of tactics which included an execrable campaign on the part of Bush supporters in South Carolina (among other things, questions were raised about the race of his child and he was called “the fag candidate.”) And then there were the rumors being spread that he was somehow psychologically damaged due to his war experience — rumors spread by his, dear good friends in the GOP as well. The GOP Establishment wanted to stop McCain. And they did.

It seems that since then McCain has vowed never to let himself be put in that position within his party ever again. So even though he has been a thorn in the side of the Bush administration on some key issues, he has carefully and systematically mended the broken fences with the Bush camp and the GOP establishment. Among other things, in 2004 he rebuffed feelers from Democratic Senator John Kerry about considering running with him on the Democratic ticket and then campaigned vigorously for George Bush.

But McCain has had one remaining sticking point: the religious right who he had so soundly denounced in 2000 after South Carolina and other battles — denunciations that won him fans among Democrats and independent voters, and created bitter enemies in a part of the GOP that has its hands on some powerful levers of party power.

So McCain is now taking great pains to mend fences with the party’s religious right. ABC News reports:

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., still breaks from GOP orthodoxy on such issues as torture and immigration. But operating below the radar, the potential Republican presidential hopeful is taking steps to win over the conservatives who denied him the GOP’s presidential nomination in 2000.

His efforts have paid off with at least one prominent conservative.

“I think he is genuinely a state’s righter — and so am I,” the Rev. Jerry Falwell told ABC News.

Net gain for McCain in the GOP. Net loss for McCain with some independent voters who won’t trust someone who Falwell endorses. MORE:

When McCain ran for president the last time, he denounced Falwell as one of America’s “agents of intolerance.” But now that McCain is gearing up to run for president as the GOP’s establishment candidate, he has told Falwell that he spoke “in haste” in 2000.

“It just came down to pure old politics in South Carolina and other states,” Falwell said.

Well, Jerry, many people who liked McCain would say it “just came down to pure old DIRTY politics” in South Carolina, even though you and the Senator are now burying the hatchet.

Falwell and McCain first made peace in a face-to-face meeting a few months ago. In a sign of their improved relationship, McCain has agreed to be the graduation speaker at Falwell’s Liberty University on May 13.

When McCain accepted an invitation to be Liberty University’s graduation speaker, he spoke with Falwell by phone about the marriage issue.

According to Falwell, McCain is not pushing for a federal marriage amendment at this time. But McCain “reconfirmed” to Falwell that he would support a federal constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman if a federal court were to strike down state constitutional bans on gay marriage.

McCain’s outreach to conservatives on marriage is politically important because of the way he sharply denounced a federal constitutional ban on gay marriage when it was considered in 2004. McCain called it “antithetical in every way to the core philosophy of Republicans” because it “usurps from the states a fundamental authority they have always possessed and imposes a federal remedy for a problem that most states do not believe confronts them.”

McCain’s problem?

It’s an old one. He has to do a political tightrope act to get the nomination…and one false step and in a general election he could wind up a political dead duck.

He hasn’t quite taken that step yet, but the tightrope is shaking a bit.

On the other hand, he walks a political tightrope a lot better than Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

Frist, who wants to run for President as well, fell off his tightrope long ago. Political tightrope walking should look effortless, smooth and be graceful.

Frist’s political tightrope walking resembles a pregnant Hippo with the runs trying to break dance.

McCain’s problem is this: unlike many GOPers, first he has to prove to many Republicans that he is a “real” Republican. He has to downplay his “maverick” image with GOPers by making peace with them, praising them, assuring them, suggesting that deep down inside he is either one of them or close to being one of them. But in doing so he has to file down the edges of his strong image as a straight-talking, independent-minded Republican who may be hated by some people within the GOP who Democrats and independents also dislike. He has to become like any, ‘ol Republican to get nominated.

The problem: if he does that and then gets the nomination he will have so altered his image that he won’t have the same appeal (or in sheer numbers supporters or activists) as he did in 2000.

On the other hand, a lot would depend on who the Democrats would nominate. Someone a segment of the Democratic party felt was too far right (such as Hillary Clinton) or too far left (such as Russ Feingold) could help McCain, since in each case an angry segment of the Democrats could stay home. Someone who is perceived to be less controversial and who is easily defended as a centrist could spell problems for McCain.

But, in the meantime, McCain keeps taking more and more careful stpes on that wobbly tightrope.

He hasn’t fallen yet.

But it looks like he may be getting awfully close.

This post is also being discussed on the website The Gather.