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Predictions: 2010, 2012, 2014
These are nothing more than placeholders, based on nothing more than a random reading of the tea leaves this morning. Obviously, a lot could happen in the next one to five years, and these predictions could easily prove to be very, very wrong. But what the hell.
1. Concerned independents and a re-motivated base will hand Republicans control of the House of Representatives in 2010, but not the Senate.
2. A recovered economy and not-worse (potentially improved) foreign policy outlook will combine to give President Obama a second term in 2012.
3. The chattering classes will finally, thankfully grow tired of Sarah Palin and relegate her to a political history footnote by or before 2014.
13 Responses to “Predictions: 2010, 2012, 2014”
I hope you are correct on 3., for the sake of the GOP.
1. R's will capture 20+ seats in the House, fall short of a majority, but be able to work with Blue Dogs to rein in the liberal D's.
2. Obama will be re-elected, barring scandal or catastrophy. The economy will not be recovered (much more is coming in the residential and commercial RE market), but the administration will be able to convince voters that it is “recovering”.
3. Sarah Palin will be a celebrity with a permanent gig as a judge on American Idol, and by then having been divorced and remarried, will focus on her celebrity and her bank account, not politics. The divorce will have been very ugly, filled with recriminations, accusations and entire forests having been razed to accommodate the tabloids.
I would tend to agree with Tidbits.
My current analysis shows a GOP gain in the House of around 20-25 seats, a gain in the Senate of 2-3 seats, both of which would leave the Democrats in control but by reduced margins.
Presidents tend to get re-elected barring major scandals or economic meltdowns, so I expect Obama will win. The margin will depend on whether the GOP picks a viable contender or goes with a Palin. In the same election I expect minor Dem gains in the House but probably GOP gains in the Senate as the heavily Dem 2000/2006 class will be up.
As to 2014, GOP gains are likely since it's the 6 year itch. The GOP could retake both houses as the 2008 Senate class is also heavily Democratic and thus prone to Democratic losses.
Jeb Bush will re-surface in 2012 or 2016 as a Presidential candidate, probably as a “designer label” or “brand name” candidate by default because the GOP field will be weak. (I realize that the foregoing was in no way novel or innovative. But then, neither is the GOP these days.)
1. R's will capture 20+ seats in the House, fall short of a majority, but be able to work with Blue Dogs to rein in the liberal D's (agree 100%).
2. A very slow improvement in the economy will occur, but unemployment will remain around 9-10%. Huckabee and Romney will win the GOP nomination – and they will capitalize on the economy. The election will be another 50/50 nailbiter.
3. Sarah Who?
I'd be interested in knowing which 20 seats anyone thinks are going to change hands.
JD -
We find ourselves in close agreement. 2012 will likely be closer than '08 if for no other reason than that the anti-Bush fervor will not drive the election in 2012.
Sorry you ended up becoming the meat in the sandwich in that dust up over the weekend. For what it's worth, I've apologized twice here – once to authors and once to a commenter. Welcome to the club.
I'm used to being caught up in the dustclouds and being the meat of the sammich (I like spelling it that way because it always makes me giggle).
I was in a mood and went a bit far on the comments. I had had a bad day. Not an excuse but a reason nonetheless.
It's a shame we lost Austin Roth over it though. I hope he comes back.
As far as 2012….. You're right about the anti-bush factor. It won't be there. The hope and change express won't be as much of a factor either, as that is cooling rather quickly. We are finally past the “first black President” fanfair, and have finally gotten to where Obama is the President – no skin references – just The President. The black community should show up on election day as well, but not in the numbers they had in 2008. Most still see Obama in a good light, but they are quickly coming to the realization that he's pretty much like all of the other white guys in the past. I guess we'll see.
I'll be the dissenter and predict that Obama will not win a second term, for the reasons described by JD in his last paragraph. Even with all of those factors at his back, his margin of victory was not that large.
Of course, I'm not 100% sure of that. A lot depends on how the economy does over the next 3 years and also who the GOP can find in the meantime. I predict Palin will (thankfully) NOT be the GOP nominee. McCain's nomination proved that the party still leans moderate and although the far-right is loud, the don't represent the majority of the party.
On a lighter note, I've done some thinking about what the possible campaign slogans for 2012 might be:
Obama: “Change is overrated”
Romney: “It's been at least 4 years since my last flip-flop”
Huckabee: “Ironically, this time I'll split the religious right vote with Palin and give the nomination to Romney instead. Funny how the tables turn like that.”
Palin: “I promise I won't quit when I'm president, unless I feel I can make a greater contribution as a private citizen.”
Huntsman: “Because there just aren't enough old, white, rich, perfect-haired, Mormon guys in this race.” (I'm a Mormon, so obviously no slur intended, and I actually like Huntsman)
Oh, I almost forgot:
McCain: “I won't pick Palin this time, I promise”
McCain #2: “That's what they said last time, but I'm still here, aren't I?”
2010 – Private sector job loss is out of control. Unemployment hits 12% in January '10 and reaches 15% by mid-October. The Moderate Semicrats need to feed their families so they help the Republican party gain control of both the House and the Senate. Obama still has yet to make a decision on troop levels in Afghanistan.
2012 – House and Senate Republicans begin to build relations with Obama's handlers so US/China relations look to be on solid ground. Hillary becomes President because, now that Ed Kennedy is dead, Bill can choose his own puppet.
2014 – Hillary sends Barrack Obama to prison the rest of his life for the war crimes he committed in 2009 (killing innocent Afghan and Pakistan citizens with unmanned drones).
The Republicans and the Blue Dogs have already reined in Obama, who has lacked the courage of his convictions from the start. I doubt the Repubs will get the House back, but they'll come close. It will be Obama's own fault. Timid souls get what they deserve, which is not a lot.
As for Obama's re-election, it will depend entirely on the direction of unemployment in the second quarter of 2012. If unemployment in June 2012 is higher than in March 2012, Obama loses decisively. If it's unchanged, he loses narrowly. If it falls, he wins.
This relationship has worked in every election since 1948, with the exception of 1956. The reason it didn't work that year was because the increase in 1956's 2Q unemployment rate was slight, and was quickly reversed in the opposite direction. In every other election year, the direction of 2Q unemployment was part of a trend.
In 2008, I looked at that relationship, and on July 2nd sent the following e-mail to friends:
“The June unemployment statistics were released yesterday. The national unemployment rate stayed at 5.5%, which means unemployment started 2Q at 5.1% and ended 2Q at 5.5%. By historical standards, that's a big increase and portends a significant victory for Barack Obama this fall.
“The Republicans know how bad it is, too. At the moment, I'd say they're set to lose everything Bush lost to Kerry in 2004, plus: OH, IA, CO, NM, NH and VA. If he does that, it's 306-232 electoral votes. Obama has reasonable chances in IN, MO, NV, and FL. If he does those, it's 360-178.
“If it's really big, he'll win some or all of the following: NC, MT, ND, AK, and GA. That would be 399-139. Obama is getting ready for a big victory. Maybe that's why he's thinking of giving his nomination speech in a 75,000-seat stadium rather than a mere auditorium.
“The Republicans know they're in big trouble, which is why they're flailing around so desperately trying to find angles of attack. I think it's a matter of damage control. The way it looks now, the Republicans will lose at least 20 House seats and at least 5 Senate seats, in addition to the presidency. How much higher their losses go will be a matter of how well Obama runs his campaign.”