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Obama vs Karzai Over Exit Strategy
Barack Obama is doing what George W. Bush failed to do in Iraq–looking for “where the off-ramps are,” according to a White House official.
As the President starts a nine-day Asia trip, he leaves behind the message that his Afghanistan decision has been strongly influenced by Karl Eikenberry, the US ambassador who was once military commander there, whose doubts about Hamid Karzai are reflected in a White House statement:
“The President believes that we need to make clear to the Afghan government that our commitment is not open-ended. After years of substantial investments by the American people, governance in Afghanistan must improve in a reasonable period of time.”
So begins the crucial battle there–Obama vs Karzai–to get Afghanistan out of its sinkhole of corruption and incompetence far enough to be able to stand on its own and allow US troops to withdraw in a foreseeable time.
Administration officials are reported to be pushing Karzai for a list of “deliverables” to prove that he is cracking down on corruption, including naming able technocrats to top cabinet positions rather than warlords who backed his re-election.
Cynics will claim that Obama does not have the leverage for this kind of arm-twisting–that we are stuck in Afghanistan and Karzai knows it.A former US ambassador there puts it this way:
“You know that scene in the movie ‘Blazing Saddles,’ when Cleavon Little holds the gun to his own head and threatens to shoot himself? The argument that we could pull out of Afghanistan if Karzai doesn’t do what we say is stupid. We couldn’t get the Pakistanis to fight if we leave Afghanistan; we couldn’t accomplish what we’ve set out to do. And Karzai knows that.”
3 Responses to “Obama vs Karzai Over Exit Strategy”
I wish them luck as long as it includes careful thought regarding Pakistan, which many people consider to be the bigger problem. And, as long as we don't leave people swinging in the wind as we have sometimes done in the past. People should NOT think of us as fair weather friends.
Odds are, since they're lefties, that they present the risk of blundering again (even if they get applause on here and elsewhere in Lefty World). However, Obama seems to be deliberate, careful, and at least intelligent with this (as opposed to the Dem rushing to do badly and wrong all year with legislative and other policy goals, so far). There's probably no truly good choice that Obama can make, and that is one reason why he's hesitating. Pakistan vs. Afghanistan, going for broke (full commitment) versus leaving a reserve at home, on hand (and for what?), all of these are challenges. More and more people agree each day or week that he's taking too long to act, but I haven't concluded it yet. This won't be an easy choice.
There's probably no truly good choice that Obama can make, and that is one reason why he's hesitating.
Presidents are elected to make difficult decisions, so I don't have too much sympathy for that argument. My gut feeling is that he is afraid to make a decision that will go against his previous statements.
The biggest problem with his lack of progress here is that for over two months we have been continuing to follow a plan McChrystal has said will not work. To delay this decision costs lives with no benefit. My preference is that we start to withdraw from Afghanistan. My next preference would be to pursue a winning strategy. Obama has been mired in a third way, which is to send troops into battle with a strategy that won't work while he deliberates.
On Karzai, he seems a convenient excuse to delay the decision. The problems with Karzai are nothing new.