Comments on: Trusting (But Not Registering) Republican

By: Reading Larry Sabato While Looking Toward 2010 « Kicking Over My Traces

Reading Larry Sabato While Looking Toward 2010 « Kicking Over My Traces — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 16:28:32 +0000

[...] Trusting (But Not Registering) Republican (themoderatevoice.com) [...]

By: DaGoat

DaGoat — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 15:16:35 +0000

The main reason for this is they poll likely voters not the man on the street like most other polling agencies. The opinion of a non voter really doesn't hold much sway.

This is true when polling things that require a vote, like predicting election results. I'm not sure it holds when trying to gauge national opinion. In that case the opinion of a non-voter counts the same as a voter. You could make a good case it shouldn't be that way, but that's the way it is.

By: Leonidas

Leonidas — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:05:27 +0000

Rasmussen seems to usually poll 5-10 points to the right of other major polls so I would take their findings with a larger grain of salt than I do the other polls.

The main reason for this is they poll likely voters not the man on the street like most other polling agencies. The opinion of a non voter really doesn't hold much sway.

By: Davebo

Davebo — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:20:34 +0000

Apparently so. Your link.

No posts match your query. Show all posts

Better luck next time.

By: DaGoat

DaGoat — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 19:42:23 +0000

My liberal dreams? I hope Kathy doesn't read that, her heart might not take it.

I am not familiar with the fivethirtyeight site. I'd suggest you go the the RCP site, look at the numbers on the various polls and make your own judgments.

By: casualobserver

casualobserver — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:51:01 +0000

Making stuff up now?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pol...

apparently only in your liberal dreams

By: DaGoat

DaGoat — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:46:03 +0000

dagoat, then which is your confidence inspiring polling organization?

I don't have one, not because I think most pollsters are inherently biased but because polls have so many limitations, especially when you apply them to complex issues.

Rasmussen seems to usually poll 5-10 points to the right of other major polls so I would take their findings with a larger grain of salt than I do the other polls. The RealClearPolitics poll averages probably give you good ballpark figures.

By: Davebo

Davebo — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:28:17 +0000

dagoat, then which is your confidence inspiring polling organization? fivethirtyeight, hardly a conservative backing website, concludes it is at the very top of polls for accuracy over the long haul.

Making stuff up now?

By: Don Quijote

Don Quijote — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:32:18 +0000

Who are these idiots being polled?

Fox Viewers.

By: Father_Time

Father_Time — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 12:20:02 +0000

BWAAAAaaaahahahahaha……not sure…..

…..gay rights……zip….nada…..lieder nicht…

By: imavettoo

imavettoo — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 03:18:55 +0000

Chew on this awhile Jazz

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/poll...

By: shannonlee

shannonlee — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 23:33:41 +0000

Reps left the WH with two unfinished wars and a failing economy. They have no national leadership and not many people in the pipe. Since becoming the minority, they have done nothing but offer the word No.

Who are these idiots being polled?

By: casualobserver

casualobserver — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 23:19:53 +0000

dagoat, then which is your confidence inspiring polling organization? fivethirtyeight, hardly a conservative backing website, concludes it is at the very top of polls for accuracy over the long haul.

By: DaGoat

DaGoat — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:23:52 +0000

Rasmussen consistently polls further to the right than other polls. Some of it is that they poll only likely voters but even so I don't have much confidence in their results.

By: Davebo

Davebo — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 19:51:51 +0000

A better question is who is asking the questions.

By: SteveK

SteveK — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 18:03:48 +0000

You've got that right Davebo, an outlier and then some. A Rasmussen Poll… as first heard first on Fox News.

These Saturday Morning 'The Right is Rising' cartoons are as old as the Road Runner… the main difference between them is that we let the kids watch the Road Runner.

By: Estevan Carlos Benson

Estevan Carlos Benson — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:36:47 +0000

I'm sorry but who are these retards that are being polled? Those results must be skewed and it's nonsense that people's positions have changed that dramatically across the board in 10 months. Bullocks. Delusional polling there.

By: Davebo

Davebo — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 17:18:02 +0000

Can you say outlier

By: Jazz

Jazz — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:58:38 +0000

Well, DQ, that's why I put “but not registering” in the title. It does seem odd. Of course, the two races you cited in your comment are obvious aberrations because of the 3rd party factor. Both should have been fairly close, but both would have gone to the Republican as little as two months ago. But the NY Conservative Party candidate in NY23 has eaten up a big piece of turf from Scozzafava and Chris Christie has been pulled down to slightly below Corzine's anemic numbers by his own third party thorn in the side. Neither of those are races where the 3rd party challenger is drawing significantly from the Democrat, and if you added them back in to the Republican's total, it's a clear win for the GOP. Absent a major change (one candidate leaving the race immediately or being found with a dead hooker / live boy-girl) nobody in either race will get anywhere near 50% in their victory.

But it's true, GOP registration is at an all time low and the Democrats are only losing a little ground. The good news from all that is that independent, third party voters seem to be on the rise and will increasingly force the two major parties to heel if they want to win.

By: Don Quijote

Don Quijote — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:37:06 +0000

Yeah, they are cleaning the table until election time...

Poll: Corzine Leads Christie By 42%-39%

It looks like reminding voters of Republican Candidates previous association with G.W. Bush is the present that just keeps giving...

Poll: Dem Leads In NY-23, Conservative Party's Hoffman Still In Third

If Republicans are cleaning the table on issues, why is the number of Registered Republicans is at it's lowest point since the early 80's.
The Republican Shrinkage Problem