Democrats Poised To Lose New Jersey and Virginia Governor’s Races

The latest — and biggest — political news is that the Democrats now seem poised to lose governor’s races in two key states, losses that will mean the old conventional political wisdom will be tossed out and the new narrative will be how the Democrats have seriously lost independent voter support and how the GOP’s hopes of regaining power soon are no longer perceived as unrealistic.

The news in this Reuters report should be troubling to the Demmies:

Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia face possible defeat in November, despite strong showings by President Barack Obama in those states last year, in elections that could render the first judgments on on the Obama presidency.

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a close Obama ally, is struggling to win re-election in the face of a strong challenge by Republican Christopher Christie.

The Obama administration has turned out in support of Corzine, a wealthy former Goldman Sachs executive.

At a rally in Atlantic City this week, Vice President Joe Biden said it was “critically important” that Corzine is re-elected.

The Corzine campaign adapted the popular Obama slogan, hanging a banner next to Biden reading: “Yes we can — again.

In Virginia, the only other U.S. state with a gubernatorial contest this year, Democrat Creigh Deeds has been losing so much ground in the polls to Republican Bob McDonnell that he has blamed the Obama administration’s $787 economic stimulus plan for his low popularity.

A Washington Post poll published on Friday gave McDonnell a commanding lead of 53 percent to 44 percent, with less than a month to go until election day.

“Frankly, a lot of what’s going on in Washington has made it very tough,” Deeds told Politico newspaper. “We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending.”

It’s easy for Democrats and others to dismiss this as the doing of the talk radio political culture and a seemingly hyperactive news media that changes conventional wisdom more than a mother changes an infant’s diapers. But its likely part of this is due to change not being as great or as perceptive in voters’ daily lives as some hoped — which is partially due to the Obama administration’s style of incrementalist-change on several fronts. The economic stimulus would never been an issue if its impact was widely felt and if the news about unemployment was not so persistently negative. A theoretical about big spending would be trumped by a practicality of a major shift national, regional and personal financial fortunes.

Add to that the Democrat’s internal squabbling over issues such as health care reform and it’s a perfect set up for the Democrats to lose some of the voters who sampled the party and voted for them in 2008 over disgust over the Bush administration. Some of those who voted anti-GOP were former Republicans or disgusted Republicans who didn’t like the Bush administration but now don’t see the Obama administration as what they expected or hoped it to be.

The bottom line: Democratic losses in these two states would be a big political story that will cause a major revision in the conventional wisdom. “The Democrats on the ropes…” Particularly if Democrats in those states seemingly distance themselves from the Obama administration and/or administration efforts to campaign there prove fruitless.