Iran And Nukes—The Iranian View
When engaged in an argument, it’s always wise to understand the other party’s point of view. Not to agree with this view, of course, but as a means to possibly resolve the disagreement in a way that benefits everyone.
With this in mind, here’s some reasons why Iran might think it is both justified and necessary to develop the nuclear weapons that pretty much all objective observers today believe they are actively working to develop, their statements to the contrary not withstanding.
The genesis of nuclear weapon thinking by Iran was very likely the policies of Iraq under Saddam. His early nuclear bomb making efforts were kibboshed by Israel, but many nations (including our own) thought he had restarted them. Since Saddam initiated a war with Iran that cost the Iranians an estimated million dead, it was natural for them to think having their own nuclear deterrent in place to counter a future Iraqi nuclear arsenal might be a prudent measure.
When the U.S. destroyed Saddam’s regime, this threat only appeared (to Iran and many others) to be amplified from another quarter. President Bush’s “axis of evil” speech seemed like a direct threat to Iran at some later date.
Three countries were part of this supposed axis — Iraq, North Korea and Iran. Iraq got invaded, North Korea didn’t. The former didn’t have nukes to defend itself. The latter did. To the Iranians the message could seem clear: have nukes and be safe from attack by the Americans.
The threat of attack by Israel could seem very real indeed to Iran these days. This is one of those chicken-and-eggs situations. Israel thinks it may have to attack Iran to prevent it developing nukes, while Iran thinks the best way to prevent such an attack is to have nukes. Both arguments are silly for all sorts of real world reasons, the two countries being natural allies, which they more or less were while the shah ruled Iran. But the Middle East isn’t the real world as the rest of the world understands reality, so both arguments create intense worries for both parties.
In looking at an Iranian justification for developing nukes, a look at a map shows another very good argument for doing so. Nuclear powers are everywhere in its part of the world. Russia, China, India and Pakistan, the latter actually bordering Iran. One should also not forget (Iran hasn’t) that two of these countries, India and Pakistan, were threatened by the world with grievous retaliation if they developed their own nukes. India and Pakistan did. The world shrugged and accepted.
These are some of the reasons Iran might think it prudent to develop its own nuclear weapons. There’s other reasons at work as well. Iran has invested a great deal of time and effort is this program and now, even if it got a very good deal to stop it, a strong internal constituency’s reputation is at stake. Halting the program now might also make the government seem “weak” at a time when it really has been weakened by a bogus election. Governments don’t like to appear weak.
This, then, is yet another example of the way things often work in world politics. Bad forces now out of date leave a legacy, and responses that are no longer appropriate acquire a life of their own that’s hard to end. Let’s hope the Obama team, which is much more sensible than its predecessor in these matters, can finesse the past and save us all from a host of future problems.
8 Responses to “Iran And Nukes—The Iranian View”
Don't forget internal stability as well. The world has tolerated Pakistani military dictatorship because the threat of anarchy there is too great due to nukes…and that was even with them creating and supporting the Taliban while being a threat to India!
Good article,
I'd wouldn't mind seeing a companion piece about how Israel might see the situation.
I agree with Leonides. & perhaps one from the perspective of India (another nuclear country with a long history of dealing with Iran as both friend & foe.)
The Iranian government is crazy. Death to this, Death to that, Death, Death, Death….
I've had enough. Death to the friggen Iranians!
No doubt the gay community is relieved to hear you have a new foil, FT.
I personally would not mind all that much if Iran had nuclear weapons mainly because countries like Pakistan also have those weapons but I am concerned what a nutcase like Ahmadinejad would do with the influence he would get by having those nuclear weapons. I would predict a war with Israel, although I personally believe that is going to happen anyway and the Middle East being plunged into even more strife, especially if the majority Sunni Muslim nations there feel threatened by a powerful, nuclear armed Shite Iran.
Well, as I've noted elsewhere, I don't think the mullahs–who really hold the power, not Ahmadinejad–are suicidal. They won't attack Israel with nukes any more than Khamenei will strap on a suicide vest. I do not fear a nuclear Iran, any more than I fear a nuclear Russia, China, India, Pakistan or Israel. I hope we eventually rid the world of nukes, but as the post notes, we showed Iran that “axis of evil” designation plus absence of nukes = existential threat.
“More powerful than the president of Iran, the Leader appoints the heads of many powerful posts – the commanders of the armed forces, the director of the national radio and television network, the heads of the major religious foundations, the prayer leaders in city mosques, and the members of national security councils dealing with defence and foreign affairs. He also appoints the chief judge, the chief prosecutor, special tribunals and, with the help of the chief judge, the 12 jurists of the Guardian Council – the powerful body that decides both what bills may become law and who may run for president or parliament.[4]
The Islamic Republic has had two Supreme Leaders in its history; currently the post is occupied by Ali Khamenei.”
“They won't attack Israel with nukes any more than Khamenei will strap on a suicide vest.”
Don't bet on that! Even if 99% of Iranians were to be killed (which wouldn't happen) in a nuclear exchange, if it meant the end of Israel, it would be a Blessed Victory and acceptable arithmetic.
Just look at Pakistan, whose intelligence services wanted to give nukes to the Taliban “for safe-keeping purposes,” and whose military leadership, when asked about starting a nuclear war with India, which competes with the Korean Peninsula in the potential-devastation category, replied,
“Why not?”
On a more commonplace and realistic note, obviously those with the most to fear from Iranian nukes are Iran's closer neighbors, notably the Saudis but also all the small Gulf nations, not only Iraq (and Afghanistan). It's no surprise (or shouldn't be, at least) that the Saudis have been mentioned first and foremost when discussing other nations seeking nukes (the Saudis can buy what they want, given the oil wealth they have), more than the other nations like the Gulf emirates.