Will Obama Ever Listen To Ike ?

Shortly after President Obama took office I wrote that if he were wise he would look to Eisenhower rather than Nixon when it came to dealing with overseas wars. Given the discussions in the news lately I thought it was worth reposting my thoughts for your consideration

In my post, I pointed out that both Ike and Nixon faced wars when they came into office and that along with Obama they were the only ones to do so with a change in party control of the White House.

At the time I suggested that Obama would be wise to follow the example set by Ike when he moved quickly to get out of Korea. Although Eisenhower certainly was no coward and had no desire to appease an enemy, he was smart enough to realize that a good commander in chief recognizes what battles can be won and what battles cannot.

In the case of Korea, it was clear to Ike that the only way to ‘win’ the war in Korea was to totally conquer the entire peninsula and that to do that meant a massive loss of life and a probable conflict with China and Russia. By contrast a peace treaty that left South Korea intact did not really hurt the US defense posture and was thus the best solution.

Eisenhower also recognized that while it was far from a perfect democracy, the people of South Korea were committed to saving and fighting for their own freedom. By obtaining a peace treaty and making clear that we would protect South Korea from outside invasion, Ike was able to end a war in six months.

By contrast, when President Nixon took office he did not get us out of Vietnam but instead kept us there for another four years even though the war was quite similar to that of Korea. The only way we were going to see South Vietnam remain free was to destroy North Vietnam. The kind of war that was needed to accomplish this would have cost millions of lives and likely led to World War Three.

There was also little indication that the South Vietnamese were ready (or indeed willing) to establish (and more importantly fight for) a real democracy. This was perhaps the biggest problem faced in Vietnam, the battle being less military than it was political and societal. We needed a committed nation willing to fight for itself rather than depending on us to do the fighting for it.

To be fair Nixon did have a harder road that Ike, the North Vietnamese were less willing to allow South Vietnam to remain and the world community was less willing to back the United States. There were also some geopolitical reason for remaining in Vietnam, in terms of our relations with the Soviets and the Chinese, as well as the worldwide battle of wills between the free nations and Communism.

But at the same time Nixon allowed the war to become his own and in the end we ended up with nothing. He could have accomplished the same goals in far less time if his objective had focused not on the hopeless idea of keeping South Vietnam free but instead the more realistic goal of getting out in the best manner possible.

In looking to the situation faced by President Obama today I think he needs to take to heart what President Eisenhower did in 1953. Looking to both Iraq and Afghanistan, the situations are quite similar to those in Korea and Vietnam. In both cases we have largely eliminated the basic enemy (IE Saddam in Iraq and Taliban in Afghanistan).

For us to truly defeat the broader enemy represented by Al Qaeda and their allies would require a sacrifice far greater than our country is willing to sustain. Indeed even if we manage to defeat the fighters of today, they are likely to be replaced by newer sacrificial lambs for decades to come.

In this case the real battle is not so much military as it is political and societal, and until the people of these nations are truly willing to fight against those who pervert religion in the name of murder then the battle cannot be won. Just as with Vietnam, we need a people willing to stand up for themselves before they can really stand on their own.

So what lesson should Obama take from his 1950′s predecessor ?

I think he needs to recognize that we’ve done what we can in both Iraq and Afghanistan. We have ousted the dictators and we have set up frameworks for democracy. It’s time for the people of those nations to stand on their own. I do not think there is any real national security issue anymore either.

I doubt many (if any) of the insurgents who walked from some part of the Middle East to fight in these nations are going to hop on jets and fly to the US. Most of them are probably going to go back home, having ‘won’ the battle to get us out of the region.

This of course does not mean we should pack up totally. Certainly we can keep forces in the general region in the event that some sort of intervention is required. We should certainly maintain intelligence sources in the area, and indeed by saving money on the troops we can pour more resources into that fight.

Obviously we would need to take time to make sure the withdrawal is safe and secure. We can’t just pull out overnight and to try would be foolish. But it is time to start planning.

Sun Tzu said he will win who knows when to fight and when NOT to fight.

I think Ike realized that in Korea.

I hope Obama realizes that today.