Iraq’s Constitution Is Passed — But What Comes Next?

It’s now official: Iraq’s constitution has been approved overwhelmingly by the newly-democratic country’s voters.

Now comes the hard part.

The questions become: is the country ready to endure a long-predicted onslaught from “insurgents” who want to prove that the vote on the constitution isn’t worth a hill of beans, will it stabilize the country, or lead to unforeseen — tricky — political consequences?

Already you can see some conflicting perceptions: government officials, US officials and UN officials praise the vote while some government opponents denounce it, as the AP notes here:

BAGHDAD, Iraq – Iraq’s landmark constitution was adopted fairly by a majority of voters during the country’s Oct. 15 referendum, as Sunni Arab opponents failed to muster enough support to defeat it, election officials said Tuesday. A prominent Sunni politician called the vote “a farce.”
Results released by the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq after a 10-day-audit showed that Sunni Arabs, who had sharply opposed the draft document, failed to produce the two-thirds “no” vote they would have needed in at least three of Iraq’s 18 provinces to defeat it.

Farid Ayar, an official with the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq who announced the results, said the commission’s audit of the vote had turned up no significant fraud.

Carina Perelli, the U.N. elections chief, also praised a “very good job” with the audit and said “Iraq should be proud of the commission.”

But Saleh al-Mutlaq, a Sunni Arab member of the committee that drafted the constitution, called the referendum “a farce” and accused government forces of stealing ballot boxes to reduce the percentage of “no” votes in several mostly Sunni-Arab provinces.

“The people were shocked to find out that their vote is worthless because of the major fraud that takes place in Iraq,” he said on Al-Arabiya TV.

Nationwide, 78.59 percent voted for the charter while 21.41 percent voted against, the commission said. The charter required a simple majority nationwide with the provision that if two-thirds of the voters in any three provinces rejected it, the constitution would be defeated.

Newsday reports:

But the vote result also deepens a dangerous divide that could inflame the insurgency by Sunni Arabs, who voted massively against the constitution….

….Sunni Arabs, who dominated Iraq’s government under Saddam Hussein, say the constitution gives too much power to regions, of which theirs is poorer and weaker than the more populous Kurdish north and Shia south. They must be reassured that the constitution “can be amended in their favor” and a more transparent election process chosen for December’s parliamentary vote, said Nadhmi, a Sunni professor at Baghdad University.

One good sign is noted by the New York Times: the Sunnis are reportedly gearing up for the next electoral show-down (which indicates support of the now existing system):

The high turnout by Sunni Arabs was a marked change from last January, when many of them boycotted elections. American officials have hailed their participation as the opening of a dialog with the Sunni Arabs and as a sign that members of the Sunni-led insurgency could still be persuaded to participate in the political process. That, the Bush administration says, is the best hope for a reduction in the number of American troops in Iraq.

While Sunni Arabs appear willing to participate, they remain hostile to Shiite and Kurdish rule. The constitution was mostly written by Shiites and Kurds, and some Sunni Arab groups insisted that electoral fraud had helped its passage in some provinces.

Now, the Sunni groups appear to be mobilizing for a large turnout in elections for the National Assembly in December, in order to make major changes to the constitution and to obstruct the aims of Shiites and Kurds by having a Sunni Arab voice in the government.

“I think we must be interested in the next elections, because we can change the constitution through the next assembly,” said Fakhri al-Qaisi, a dentist and senior official in the National Dialogue Council, a hard-line Sunni group. “The Sunni Arabs want to get more power back.”

No matter what the controversy over specific results, or the breaking news stories about bombings, etc…if elections are seen as the way to get more power back, it’s a good sign for Iraq’s new democracy.