An Early Look at the 2008 Primaries

The pollsters at Marist University take an early look at the state of the campaign for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries and find the following:

• Democratic Primary
  • Hillary Clinton — 41%

  • John Kerry — 17%
  • John Edwards — 14%
  • Joe Biden — 5%
  • Wesley Clark — 3%
  • (Evan Bayh, Tom Vilsack, and Mark Warner all at 2% or below)

• Republican Primary
  • Condoleezza Rice — 21%

  • Rudy Giuliani — 21%
  • John McCain — 19%
  • Jeb Bush — 5%
  • Newt Gingrich — 5%
  • George Allen — 4%
  • (Sam Brownback, Bill Frist, George Pataki, Chuck Hagel, Tom Tancredo and Mitt Romney all at 2% or below)

While a clear majority of Democrats are happy to support an establishment candidate (58 percent support either Clinton or Kerry, 72 percent when Edwards is thrown in the mix), Republicans seem much less content with their establishment (Rice and Bush only gain 26 percent support, and the addition of Giuliani — who is pro-choice, pro-gun control and, to an extent, pro-gay rights — only puts that number at 47 percent). So is the time right for a dark horse to seemingly come out of nowhere to pick up the GOP nomination? It wouldn’t be the first time such a thing happened…

cross-posted to my blog at Basie.org