Obama And Biden Are Seeding A New “Cool War” With Russia
Jul 25th, 2009 | Comments
Even as he asserts his desire to reset relations with Russia in a positive direction, President Barack Obama is sowing early seeds for a new Cool War if not Cold War with Russia and its satellites.
The latest act was Vice President Joe Biden’s clear and full backing to Georgia, which is being interpreted there and in East and Central European capitals as an informal military guarantee of protection against Russian aggression.
The specter of Cool War lurks in Biden’s repeated promise of full support for a “united Georgia” and its territorial integrity as an undivided country. Biden also pledged perpetual American refusal to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent States.
Yet, as Biden told the Georgians, there can be no military option. In non-American eyes, that makes Biden’s full support for a “secure, free, democratic and once again united Georgia” dangerous rhetoric.
Whatever Washington might say, Abkhazia and South Ossetia cannot be reunited with Georgia without a war. Biden’s words create uncertainty, and therefore instability, in relations between Washington and Moscow and could fuel hard-line hostility on both sides.
Moscow quickly threw down the gauntlet. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said Moscow will take “concrete measures” to prevent the rearming of Georgia”. The threat was made bluntly at the same time as Biden’s speech in Georgia. His are not empty words, as demonstrated last year when Russia invaded Georgia to separate the two territories and declared their independence.
Washington’s relationship with Moscow is the most critical of all since Russia’s ability to foment trouble for the US and its European allies is infinite. For instance, it can drag its feet over helping Washington to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. It can conspire with Iran to make trouble in Afghanistan, especially in the Southern provinces where American troops fighting as part of Obama’s surge are already taking more casualties.
It can encourage Iran to keep Iraq destabilized for decades and create a Cold War with US-backed Arabs in the Gulf. It can incite Syria to make trouble in Lebanon and use the Hezbollah to keep Israel off balance.
It can quietly destabilize Pakistan’s Western frontier regions where Russian intelligence operatives have been present since well before America’s arrival. It can also stymie Obama’s foreign policies in the oil-rich central Asian countries, including those bordering on China’s restive Western regions populated by over 30 million Uyghurs and other Muslims of Turkic descent.
And we have not even touched on Western Europe’s energy security and its bilateral economic and military relationships with Moscow. Europe depends heavily on Russian oil and gas, so Obama will not be able to easily unite Europeans to confront Russia’s political ambitions.
Before Russia’s invasion last year, Georgia made a military assault into South Ossetia expecting blessings from former President George Bush. Instead, Russia moved quickly to punish Georgia.
Moscow’s motives in Abkhazia and South Ossetia were far from altruistic. It has no love of democracy and freedom taking root in neighboring territories. It used military power to tell Washington that it must have a veto over how far countries in its vicinity, like Georgia, Ukraine or Belorussia and others in Central Asia, can integrate with the Western way of life and democracy.
The veto is as unacceptable to Obama’s Washington and West Europe as it was to the Bush White House. But Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili is not a trustworthy ally. He is fighting for his political life and may again be tempted to use military adventurism to rally patriotic fervor behind him, like he did a year ago.
He slipped Washington’s leash once and could do it again. But the cost to Obama would be very high if Russia retaliates with military force. Sending American or European soldiers to die for Saakashvili in a war with Russia will be all but impossible. Western voters will never allow it.
It will also be embarrassing since the Georgian is far from being a democratic leader. He has muzzled the press, stifled opposition and is using dubious means to hang on to power. Yet, failure to intervene will make Obama look irresolute and Moscow will see that as a victory. That would change the balance of power in Europe for decades.
Russia, rather than Afghanistan, may be Obama’s undoing in foreign policy. Tensions amounting to a Cool War with Russia do not make sense from any standpoint.
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