The Dreaded Double Dip
After plunging in 2008 and early this year, since March the Dow soared some 36 percent. In the last two weeks, however, it has taken another nasty slide. Could this a signal we are about to experience….
The Dreaded Double Dip
There are few worse fears among the seers who give guidance to The Street,
Than an upward turn they claimed to discern that suddenly beats a retreat.
Then to save their reps, with practiced steps, they quickly do a back flip,
And loudly amend: “This might portend, the dreaded double dip.”
Just as camels can have a single hump or be burdened down with two,
Economies sometimes follow a path that resembles a double-u;
And just when you think the worst is behind and profits are set to soar,
The edifice takes another lurch and you’re worse off than before.
I’ve not come by to ruin your day with news of a sad Second Coming;
Indeed, such seer-like word display strikes me as unbecoming.
I’ll only state, that the usual fate, that follows a glimmer-based bubble,
Is a market that trips, and double dips, to clear out its leftover rubble.
8 Responses to “The Dreaded Double Dip”
I have no confidence in a jobless “recovery” based on confidence in the market. There is a tipping point in which our Regeanesque “borrow and spend” 30 year binge of deficits, driven by BOTH parties, kills our prosperity. I've been Chicken Little for years, lamenting the fact that interest on the debt is now our 3rd biggest budget item. Plus the “free market” and “globalization” mantras have destroyed our manufacturing in nearly every sector; clothing, shoes, cars, electronics, furniture, computers, everything. As far as I know, we are not the leading manufacturer of anything. Any business we're still in exists solely because of the dreaded “protectionism”, such as steel.
The Milton Friedmanite, Reaganomics, Thatcherism mantra of “privatize, deregulate, cut social spending” has failed. It's over.
“As far as I know, we are not the leading manufacturer of anything”
That's actually not true. The US is still the #1 manufacturer/exporter in the world. Now several people have pointed this out as a rebuttal of the “US doesn't make anything” mantra, but my counterargument is that the vast bulk of things that we export are either agricultural/oil exploration equipment/advanced manufacturing technologies; mostly in the latter two. I summarize this as “the US is the #1 exporter in the world by exporting equipment to other countries so they can make consumer goods that they sell back to the US…the #1 consumer by far.”
The massive trade specialization is what has contributed to our problems (since the industries that make the exports don't need to hire as many people as they are so specific) but more importantly, it also explains the massive collapse in trade.
It's the fault of “W”!
Both Germany & China are bigger exporters than the US, and neither of them are big exporters of commodities.
Top Exporting Countries
Export Boom Helps Farms, but Not American Factories
ROTFLMAO…
We can't export manufactured goods, because we have exported our manufacturing base.
Huh I guess we were just recently passed. I don't know though, I mean all the commodities boomed because people were using them to make stuff for us. The demand for consumer goods in other countries (other than ridiculously cheap things) just isn't that high.
Look on the bright side. We can all still load up the SUV and go to California to pick fruit, live in migrant worker camps, and, dance to fiddle music at Sunday-go-to-meet'n cornbread pot lucks!
It's not surprising that the current slump hasn't ended yet, or that it may in fact be deepening.
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