What’s Next For US and Iran ?

This is a post that I have been planning for some time but the recent events in Iran prompted me to delay it so I could see how things would develop. After pondering it for a while I decided that I should go ahead and publish it because regardless of what happens with the Iranian government the thoughts and suggestions would remain the same.

To begin with it should be remembered that the current protests  in Iran are not calling for anything close to a Western style democracy. The people are not, for the most part, calling for the overthrow of the Islamic government. They are not calling for any sense of multiparty democracy, simply a cleaner or more honest version of the current system.

Thus regardless of what happens over the coming days and weeks we still will probably face an Iran which has a theocratic government with less than friendly attitudes towards the West and with at least some desire to develop nuclear weapons.

The question thus becomes how we should deal with whatever government is in place, with the obvious understanding that it would need to be adjusted depending on who is in charge.While it may seem controversial at the moment, I think the time has come for us to renew our relationship with Iran just as we did with China in 1972. In fact our situation with Iran today is quite similar to our relationship with China prior to the opening under the Nixon administration.

Our relationship with both nations had been strong for many years before a revolution brought into power a hostile regime. In both cases the immediate aftermath of the change in government was followed by an incident that poisoned our relationship. In both cases that incident and the complex nature of international relations had led to more than twenty years of isolation. At the time Nixon announced his plans to visit China it was just as stunning to the people of that time as a visit to Iran would be to the public today.

Although certainly there were a variety of reasons behind the opening to China the primary ones were strategic in nature. China occupies a key position in Asia in terms of geography, diplomacy and military importance.  In 1972 it was in an excellent position to provide help to the United States in terms of resolving our conflict in Southeast Asia, a key issue at the time. It was also important to serve as a counterweight to the Soviet Union. Finally it was simply silly for us to pretend that the country did not exist.

Today we again see many parallels when we look to Iran. It occupies perhaps the most important strategic position in the Middle East, sitting astride the Persian Gulf and in close proximity to Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel and the oil fields of the region. Unlike many countries in the region it is largely homogenous. Most other countries in the region were created by Europeans through the use of arbitrary geographic features (a move that left ethnic communities divided between nations or forced into sharing a nation with hostile communities).

On the other hand Iran is largely the same nation that it has been for more than 20 centuries, the majority Persian people are unified by language and culture that extends back further than most other societies. Certainly there are several ethnic minorities in the country but there is not the same level of tension that exists in other parts of the region. Indeed many of the minorities are simply local variations of Persian.

For these reasons Iran is perhaps the most important nation in the Middle East and a key to any regional diplomatic strategies. Imagine the benefits to our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan if we could at least count on some level of neutrality on the part of Iran.

Obviously we can’t expect our relationship to go from hostility to instant friendship (any more than our relationship with China has) but China does offer us help in our dealings with North Korea, and a hostile China would make things much worse.

I know that some would find an opening to Iran to be difficult given the events of the past weeks, but it should be remembered that we have relations with many governments whose domestic policies are less than stellar. While it is nice in theory to want to restrict ourselves to only dealing with governments that are pure, the reality is that the world is far from perfect and we have to deal with what we have.

So how would a new opening to Iran proceed ? Obviously to a degree it would depend on how the current events in that country pan out. A new or changed regime would offer us the ability to try and reach out to the new rulers and try to move beyond the past. But even a continuation of some form of the current government (which is highly likely) presents opportunities. Indeed I suspect that the events in the streets may serve to convince some in Tehran that it might help to reach out to other nations of the world.

As with China, I think we would need some initial steps by lower level diplomats, possibly similar to the secret visits by Kissinger in 1971, to set the ground rules. These discussions would not serve to resolve the many outstanding issues between us but rather would serve to get a feel for each other and an understanding that if relations are to progress that both sides must accept a broad set of ground rules.

Eventually we could see a visit by a high level US official, possible Secretary of State Clinton, with the next goal being a formal visit by President Obama and the establishment of formal diplomatic relations. I am not sure that such a process could be completed as quickly as the China process but it certainly seems time to start.