Just kidding. For me to move up the timing, the considerations would be fairly classical. I would look to a 25% plus fall off in equities (a leading indicator), a dramatic quarter-long run up in UE (though it's a lagging indicator). There was a dramatic uptick in the UE numbers today but, like the job loss numbers, the UE % uptick was somewhat artificial. I would look for a falloff in durable goods orders, which has moved slightly up in recent reports (again a leading indicator). Finally I would look for a blackening mood in consumer confidence which has upticked in the early months of the new adminstration.

While mostly illusory, as I believe you agree, there have been improvements in a number of areas (numbers and statistics) recently. Markets and consumers must first see through that illusion before the next phase of collapse can kick in. That could come about as the result of dramatic event, but more likely will come about over time as optimism wears thin and reality sets in. But, I repeat my thesis.

Mikkel, let's hope we're both wrong and that a real recovery is underway. I'd be very pleased to have to admit that I was wrong. And if you and I are correct, and you are more correct on the timing, I'll admit that too.

The reason why I picked those is because they form the heart of the “real” economy right now: if job losses don't abate then defaults will rise too fast to make it another few years, if people don't spend money soon then there layoffs will intensify and I see spending taking place primarily through debt.

Also, the one thing that I've been most wrong about was the timing of Eastern Europe blowing up. I was sure it was going to go in Feb or March. It is starting to rise again and is the primary “black swan” event that could change things overnight at any time. It'd have to be resolved before I was confident that there will be another few years without complete banking panics.

“Here’s the moral of this story: Excessive Fed pump-priming and over-the-top federal spending is what matters, not the budget deficit.”

…This quote suggests he doesn't understand what the deficit is. It's truly amazing that he is taken seriously. Sorry for the mini-rant, he's just one of the guys that gets so much face time that is so blatantly partisan and non-factual it drives me crazy.

But yeah, in july/august of last year I kept reading how there was a huge disconnect between the bond markets and equities, energy and consumption, and how something had to give. It's getting just as bad again except the currency/bond fluctuations are even crazier and that's destroying the bank's balance sheets. It's crazy to think that things are about to recover strongly.